Move for secondary school? When?

[PerilousPlot]

Dc in Y2 and Y3 and we are thinking of moving - again - having moved for primary from inner to outer London. Primary school is 4-form state school that is OK but not at all worth moving for.

DH and I can't agree when to move given we have zero clue what to aim for or what's best.

When I look at comps (my preferred choice, to move soonest), the supposedly good ones with heavy house price premiums (sometimes as much as a private education), gcse results usually look OK e.g. over 55% higher level in English and maths... but A levels look very unimpressive (I tend to look at AAB in 2 facilitating subjects) and I can't see where else they got creamed off, only a small number would defect to a grammar?

So thinking of moving to prep and go for selective private and highly selective grammar (aspirational around here), in which case we should stay put then move only when we know which the first child gets into? I don't want the kids to be commuting an hr to school. Is this what people do? I simply don't know where to start with schools but it leads our housing, not the other way round.

The issue of moving for selective schools is what you do if your children don't get in. And yours are too young to be able to say at this stage. So you need a (non-selective) plan B.

Remember that the results of comprehensive schools will mostly indicate their intake. A school with higher results doesn't indicate the school is better, simply that it has a more able intake (of course if a school has a more able intake and less good results, that also tells you something). You will probably find the Progress 8 scores of more interest (and even then they don't tell the whole story as some primary schools hot house for KS2 SATs and some don't). Also, you need to remember that we've had 2 cohorts since the last year group sat exams, which means they are already out of date, and will be more out of date by the time your DC get to secondary school age. Schools can and do change! It sounds like you have a variety of good comps in the area you are interested in moving to, so I suspect you are overthinking.

A level results will depend very much on how selective the entry criteria are. My DC's school will accept students on many A Level courses with a Grade 5 at GCSE. A neighbouring school insists on Grade 7s and unsurprisingly gets better "raw" results but many people consider my DC's school to be better as many of their students achieve higher A Level results than would be expected based on their GCSE results.

Are the schools where you are awful??

We moved when Ds1 was going into year 3 but I was able to keep them in their original outstanding primary school but had to drive them rather than walk. We edged our bets re secondaries, the primary was a feeder for a "good" secondary but we moved to get into catchment for an outstanding secondary.

Re GCSE results you need to look more at Progress 8 than we got x% of GCSEs. That doesn't tell you if they are all 5s or mostly 8s and 9s. You also need to drill down into the "Prior Attainment" to look at the cohort the school takes in, ie low/medium/high attainment, where did the children start secondary school at academically? How much progress does each child make?

We discounted a school who made it very clear that they would spend more time bringing up a grade 3 child to a grade 4 rather than push a grade 6 to a 7. Fantastic if your child is the grade 3 but mine were in a high achieving primary so chances were they wouldn't be. Instead we chose a school that does everything for each child to get them to achieve their best grade.

I wouldn't even be looking at A levels at this point, way too far ahead and you have no idea what subjects your child will pick. Anything can happen to a school in terms of up or down 5 years out. I cannot comment on private school. Ds1 is now at uni and Ds2 is year 11.

Thanks.. yes the "outstanding" comps in my area (that we would have to move about a mile to be in catchment for and where many of DCs primary class will go and some will move for) have a less than national average progress 8 score (for low, middle... and negative for high attainers) I don't really want to spend so much to move for that.

I simply don't see any good comps worth going for!

How long a commute would you/your DP be willing to do?
Would you get a better choice of schools by moving further out eg Hants (comps) or Bucks/Kent (grammar) or Herts (?), or would housing be too expensive that way?

If aiming for selective, you definitely need to plonk yourself in an area where the 'other' schools are good too.

There are no guarantees, but if you are thinking of SS grammar then, sort out some tutoring for the yr3 child starting next year (year 4). This much more cost effective than sending them to prep school, they will be able to tell you if they are likely to make it which can then inform your decisions.

Actually the Y3 has a tutor - I tried tutoring myself but he'd only sit with a stranger, not me. It's going surprisingly well. Is this really enough vs prep school? I figured school is where he spends most time and should be taught, not by the tutor who is to fill smaller gaps, not teach. He is middle of his class, always been (my own judgement as school will never tell me)

Y2 is bright enough to sit for 7+. I worry she will start middling away and settle for less as she moves up if she stays in the school.

I've looked at Herts, Hants and Surrey before and generally the London schools perform better academically. Herts also has an awfully complicated grammar system (where you live) but the sort of grammars that DS would stand a decent chance in (whereas he'd have no chance at a superselective London grammar)

There are some sporadic comps further out all with distinct and shrinking catchment (with eye watering house prices more expensive or much smaller than our London home!). There are less options if you want a more academic option (e.g. for the younger child) or would need to trek to next town by coach to a certain type of public school that doesn't suit us (e.g. St Albans Girls). The private schooling outside London seems more polarised. I prefer to be an hour door to door London, DH can be in most places but preferably Herts or Bucks.

You need to look at the best school for your child. Look beyond the ofsted, progress 8 etc.

Eg I had the pleasure of teaching a student at an FE college who had arrived from Poland at age 14, 2 years later she had 10 GCSEs A-C (old system) but only managed a D in English, so on paper she was a 'fail' but in reality the school had really supported her to achieve. She was also hard working.

Depending on your child it can be the pastoral care that makes a difference, or particular subjects on offer eg music lessons playing a particular instrument.

OP do you have the budget for prep & private? You say other areas are too expensive to get into best comps. But private school for two is going to be £25-30 a year plus on costs. For 7 years then uni costs

What genders do you have? We have girls and moved in year 2 and year 4 for state secondary . Eldest in year 6 now and about to go to said secondary . We looked at it at year 3 and it is very strong in her favourite areas - they have stayed the same thank god.
Settled really well at primary

Boy and girl. Y2 and Y4 sounds good, I get the feeling moving in Y5/6 is too disruptive and also kids more aware at that age.

Yes it's tight with some sacrifices, but I have budgeted at today's fees rising 4% a year. It's quite a lot. Prep isn't as expensive as senior/6th form years. Hence looking to see if avoidable!

Op what if one of you lost a job or similar? Do you have decent back up savings?

We'd dip into our savings yes..