Predicted GCSE grades

[tostaky]

Hi, my son has just started y7 and we have now received the results of the CAT test.
What do people do usualyy? Do they tell their children about their expected grades? I can see pro and cons of doing that...
just wondering what the majority of people dis and when did they have that discussion? (Maybe beginning of Y10?)
Thanks

I really wouldn't tell them predicted grades in y7. They are too vague and non subject specific if they are based on CATs.
So no, I wouldn't say.
I would just focus on saying work hard, try your best, (but if necessary ponder about how to provide extra support if needed).

If they are predicted good grades they might think 'these are in the bag' and slack off. If they are predicted low grades they might think no point in trying.

By y10 they'll be more mature and more understanding where they really fit.

Nothing. He is only in year 7. Things can change a lot between now and year 11. Children this age just do not need this kind of pressure.

Things can change a lot, take it with a pinch of salt and don’t think about it again. FWIW my 2 are doing better than predicted in yr7 but purely because they just are and not because we’ve pushed them.

DD's old HT did a presentation showing CATs v GCSE Grades.
Yes there was correlation, but also many who over or under performed in GCSEs compared with CATs.
He said working steadily throughout secondary could make a real difference.

Agree that loads can change, and predictions based on tests like this aren't always hugely accurate. My DS didn't have CATs, but did have something similar, and all his 'predictions' were 9s - but they must use an algorithm which isn't 100% accurate, because the subject for which he was 'predicted' the highest possibility of a 9 needed up being his lowest Grade (7) - and I knew he was never going to get a 9 in it! Conversely, the subject calculated as his lowest possibility of a 9 was his strongest subject by a mile, and he easily got his 9 without very much effort! So, they are probably an indication, at best, I think...

Leave it. I wouldn't read more into it than "you should be aiming for good grades" or "his maths prediction looks low, perhaps we should consider a tutor".

If they're coming up with 9s, be particularly wary. Most of DD's teachers are not prepared to predict 9s until year 11, and so it's ridiculous to think that an algorithm can, especially in year 7.

At DSs school, all the kids got told their predicted grades from Year 7, based on their SATS and CAT scores.
I know your DS wouldn't have done SATS.
It never affected DS, he went off his test results on how he was doing.
For the record, DS only achieved 3 out of 8 of his target grades.

DD's school told her, her predicted grades in yr7, as they set using them. One subject was way out as she'd had issues with the tests. She exceeded all her predicted grades.

CAT tests are sometimes used for target grades, but not predictions. Predictions (if schools even do them) only come later and are based on how they are actually getting on at the GCSE, so they’ll usually be done in Year 11. The media often gets the wording wrong, so I’m not surprised it’s confusing!

CAT tests are sometimes used for target grades, but not predictions. Predictions (if schools even do them) only come later and are based on how they are actually getting on at the GCSE, so they’ll usually be done in Year 11. The media often gets the wording wrong, so I’m not surprised it’s confusing!

DD did midYIS tests on the first 🤔day of school and we were given a "flight plan". The word predicted was certainly used. In yr 11 we had minimum, target and aspirational grades. DD's target and aspirational were the same.

My twins (year 8) have had target grades based on CAT but along with non verbal, verbal, quantitative, spatial, they also did English/science/maths tests based on the SATs. The school then created target grades from that. The predicted grades were then added too based on performance that year in the school report. So target then predicted if working at same level in yr 11. Target grades stay constant and the predicted grades change based on performance.

Ds also had a flight path with target and aspirational grades, it was nowhere near accurate on any level to assess my child at 11 and make a guess as to what they will actually achieve 5 years later. I believe Ofsted also do not look at flight paths as learning isn't linear.

For Ds2 they just had end of key stage targets. GCSEs started being predicted after year 10 mocks.

Out of interest, are the CAT tests in year 7 the same as prior years? Would you share the indicative CAT range with a predicted GCSE grade, to help understand the next set of hurdles to get my head around. Our School has yet to brief us on CATs and predictions. Slightly worried we are oy keeping to school curriculum atm.

@MrsHGWells my knowledge is fairly sketchy (I will tell you everything I know so some of it will be useless information!) but from what I’ve been told/researched the Cat 4 and pretend SATs together generated a target grade. The school said in the talk these were ‘ambitious’ but as they were a great school where pupils did very well that this was very achievable and was in line with how other students with that score in the school did historically. It is also calculated from a huge cohort that take the tests country wide (think the tests were by GL assessment)

After they had taken them we got a huge report with their grades, what it meant, what we could do to encourage them in specific areas etc…

I know a friend’s child that got 130,112,118,131 in the CAT4 was predicted 8’s with a 9 for English (their 130s were verbal/spatial)

Mine got 140 average so are predicted all 9s which is a bit of a curse… but they are meeting that challenge so far in most things. And for them it’s been very positive as it encourages them to really push themselves.

I kind of understand how they can extrapolate things like maths/science from these scores but how on earth does it tell you if you will be good at art or Drama or music? So I think they do need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

There is some information on how they work out target grades on the GL website and it does vaguely make sense.

School also said that target grades were just targets and they regularly had children exceed them so not to be at all discouraged if they were lower than expected. In the end it’s a snapshot of how a child performed on one day so I don’t think it can be taken too seriously. Particularly in yr 7-9 hopefully that with 3 yrs worth of school performance together can give a much more accurate picture going into GCSE’s

I think what it is particularly helpful for is identifying children that are very bright but underperforming or ones with a very spiky profile, as they will learn differently.

Thank yoi all that was very useful.
We have just shared the overall impression of the tests to our son and not the individual grades.