Are 2021 GCSE grades going to be a reliable indicator of A’level grades?

[Breathdeep]

I’ve read a few articles stating that a certain grade at GCSE would normally lead to a certain grade at A’level. Will this still be the case this year considering a lot of schools didn’t actually complete the GCSE syllabus. Do schools/colleges use GCSEs to help them predict A’level grades? If so, will this still be the case with this cohort?

Ds's sixth form do use GCSEs to work out a generic grade but it isn't fool proof. They added all the GCSE grades together and divided it by the number taken. Ds was 8.5 meaning they predicted his grades for all subjects including one he hadn't taken before as A/A which is the highest they predict. They won't predict all As at first. However, he had high 9s in the subjects he did take and did come out with 4 A*s.

Ds's mate had 9s in the 3 subjects he was taking for A levels but lower grades than Ds across other subjects. His predicted grades were actually BBB which taken at face value removed him from applying to the universities he wanted. He was able to prove his AAA capabilities as they test them at the end of each topic so can see whether they understood and retained the information.

As content has been missed for GCSEs they may have to work a bit harder if it is a continuation of a subject. The rule of thumb is one grade lower in A level than GCSE however there are obviously students who do get A*s. It comes down to work ethic as much as anything.

If the grade boundaries for A level return to normal, then there will be some disappointed students. The cohort have exceptional inflated GCSE results and not all of the top scorers at GCSE can also have top grades at A Level, if they don’t remain inflated.

Of course some with top grades in 2020/21 would have got them anyway. Others would have been lower in normal years. With some kids it will be obvious which would always get them and which might have scraped their grades, for lots of others it’s won’t be so clear.

I’d think a reasonable number will be disappointed as their A Level results might not sit on the usual trajectory from their starting point of GCSEs.

I've wondered this.

I worry DC secondary was very cautious in their grades - not a great secondary more one with slowly improving grades and pandemic years being in line with pervious results not better despite over all grade inflation in those years.

DD1 did get a lower grade then every suggested she would in subject one she wanted to do at A-level - lowest grade really want to continue on with as it's considered a hard A-level.

This seem to happen to a few of her friends slightly lower results than ever predicted or got in most mocks and assesments -in odd one or two subjects - but overall still fine and not really worth kicking up a fuss about.

Yet she's getting As in assesments of that subject at college- it's really early days but she seems to be having fewer issues than some students with top grade at GCSE in her class.

That's one school and one pupil - extremely limited data -but does make me wonder how patchy any possible effects may be.

Given that we don't know the format of GCSEs this year, and won't until February at the earliest, I don't know how anyone can answer this.

Given that we don't know the format of GCSEs this year, and won't until February at the earliest, I don't know how anyone can answer this.

GCSE sat this academic year will be 2022's GCSE - the results given out August 2022.

I think even Nov resits now results would be Jan 2022 - though not as sure there.

OP asking about 2021 GCSE one just sat this June/July 2021.
DD1 sat GCSE 2021 and got the grades this summer and started A-levels in September.

Usually there's a strong correlation between GCSE results and A-levels - not universal as life messy - but given 2021 GCSE had two years of pandemic disruption and a completely different way of assesing than "normal" years - it's not strange to wonder if this pattern will still hold.

There are unknowns and disruptions for 2022s GCSE - I'm aware having another child in GCSE years currently but I'm waiting for DS to get through GCSE before worrying about A-level results

@inferiorCatSlave that’s interesting and similar to what is happening at my DS’s school. Their results were in line with pre pandemic grade boundaries and ds and many of his friends received lower than predicted grades/mocks despite completing the syllabus and sitting full papers. He is finding now that dc entering the school from other schools with 8s and 9s are struggling/dropping subjects. I am now wondering if there was a method in the schools madness in not inflating grades.

Its difficult because there is an automatic presumption that high grades are inflated grades simply because they're 2021 grades, and children with lower grades got them because their schools were more realistic / did exams properly etc etc even if they weren't formal GCSEs.

My DC are getting ALIS predicted grades which are based on GCSE results - as is the standard process for schools. Yes, for children who did better than expected at GCSE, those predictions might be stretching. However, for the children who got the GCSE grades they probably would have done in any event, they're indicative of what they might get.

I am now wondering if there was a method in the schools madness in not inflating grades.

It's possible though DC secondary hasn't benefited - at least not initially - it's got the lowest ever sixth form numbers -many like DD1 have gone else where for A-levels.

I thought it was possibly local poltical/circumstances - two local schools this seem to have happened to lost heads between pre pandemic GCSE and pandemic GCSsE - so maybe felt under less pressure for "better" results or pehaps due to lower grades historically felt they'd be under more scrutiny - but I don't know.

We did talk to DD1 about maybe changing A-levels as well in light of the grade but she was really keen to do A-level and so far it seems to be the right choice for her- though it's really early days.

Quite simply, there will be more disappointed children....but we don't know which ones.

Greater percentages have got the higher GCSEs and assuming some return to normal A Level distributions across 2 years (which is what is the target) then in 2 years, the A Levels will be back at the standards percentages getting each grade. Some of those L8/9 won't be on for A* and a greater number of kids with L8/9 will get A or B than before would have been expected to. Of course, lots will still get too grades.

You cannot predict if your child will or won't. The higher their level if achievement is, the more likely high grades will occur.

On one level, this is the same as always. Some high performers at GCSE always underperform at A Level. This will still be the case, but just in larger numbers probably.....unless the government backtracks and allows grade inflation to remain for a bit longer.

And it's funny isn't it, how so many people are sure their school wasn't a big inflating centre, but elsewhere was. Few people seem to think their individual child's grades ended up above what they would have been normally.

The thing is, although we know about statistical patterns across cohorts, for individual kids we cannot be sure what will happen...an never have been able to know. All they can do is work hard, listen to advice about what is realistic and apply for some aspirational and more realistic places.

@WombatChocolate I think there is a difference between inflated grades and the achievement a child would have got in ordinary circumstances. I don't think when you look at the subjects individually my DC had grade inflation - eg their assessments / exams in Maths etc across the 2 years seemed in line with what they got. Their grades were moderated / centrally checked. Its just that in reality, had they had to do 2 or 3 papers in each subject across 2 or 3 weeks as GCSE students normally do, with all the pressure that brings, they might have dropped a grade here or there simply due to stress / time pressures of a condensed block of exams / revision. I don't think any schools, regardless of whether they did formal exams or assessments, recreated that real GCSE pressure which is why overall, being absolutely objective, my DC got better results - but not by much. That will also be quite telling at A Level because that pressure of "real" exams will be new.

Yes, you're right....it will be the first time of real exams for most of them. Some will cope better than others. But it will be the new for them all.

I guess the point I was making, it that perhaps in a usual year 22% get L9/L8 and this might then follow through into perhaps 20% getting A at A Level.....and I know all those who got the L9/8 aren't exactly the same ones who get A at A level.

But then, in 2022, perhaps 33% got L9/8 at GCSE, but in 2024 20% get an A grade at A Level.....that's a lot more 'disappointed' L8/9 students who thought they were top students, but who didn't see it translate to A Level. Of course, 20% still will have seen that standard translation from top results in one exam to top results in the next (and your DC might see the standard, expected translation) and those 20% didn't have inflated grades anyway.....but a third of those L8/9 WERE inflated in relation to the usual grades issued because 33% instead of 22% got a L8/9. They all feel they worked hard and they all feel they deserved their grades. It's impossible to say who would have got those grades under an exam system sticking to standard amounts of each grade being awarded and who wouldn't.

It is really hard for parents to look at grades across the years and to see if grades are inflated or not. Different boundaries are used by different schools for internal exams and work at different stages of the course. Schools are often fairly optimistic and it is frequent, especially at A Level for students to do less well than they'd expected. In fact, only 15% of predicted grades for UCAS are actually achieved.
When schools predict, they go with very best case scenario. They will be right about some students who will go onto achieve those grades, but not right for others. This year with teacher grades, they essentially gave the higher grades to everyone who had any evidence that they might get it....so it was like not giving the grades just to the 15% who would have achieved them, but to all who could have been predicted and achieved them, but whom they couldn't possibly know which would and which wouldn't.

In usual exams, every year, students are disappointed with their results. It's disappointing but it feels acceptable because it's a reflection of their personal performance. The tricky thing with 2021 was that students didn't get a chance to perform, and when teachers went with the standard historic grades their schools has awarded, it felt unfair when essentially schools decided who would get the grades and who wouldn't, without students getting a chance to 'earn it'. This year, they had a chance to perform, if not in an exam based way, but because it still wasn't exams, essentially the benefit of the doubt was given and where students had a chance of getting a grade, they were given it, even though in exams, many of those with a chance wouldn't actually achieve it.

I guess you're right it will be important to really practice exam technique and working at unseen papers, so the exam aspects which can trip students up, don't trip up your DC. It will be hard for Unis making offers, as so many will have the higher grades. It will be impossible for them to know which would have been the original 20% L8/9 and which the other 13%, so they will all get the offers. Unis worry about over offering, because if students get the grades, they must then take them. It will be really hard to make the right numbers of offers, to ensure they don't have empty places or too many students. It's all difficult.

If your DC did well st GCSE that's great. All they can do now is keep working hard and pushing ahead. You have to hope their grades were reasonably realistic and the courses they are on are appropriate. Some students will find their GCSEs gave them a false sense of their abilities but quickly find their A Levels aren't right for them and change course or drop out. By the time 2 years have passed, hopefully the right ones remain as schools might need to be more careful at helping those not suited to A Levels to go at the end of the first year of A Levels, if it's really not right for them.

Completely agree, albeit that there were exams here and where they bombed didn't do very well, the grade reflected that, despite having been predicted higher. Thank you for the insight though, really interesting!

Dd had loads of not GCSE exams, unseen at least two papers per subject mainly over four weeks, so on average a paper per day, but in reality often two papers with some days without papers. I think though for A level the timetable is not quite as jammed as it is for GCSE. I think it is roughly 9 papers over five weeks which is an entirely different proposition so I am not sure that having intensive exam experience at GCSE will necessarily be a benefit. I think too it is very different doing three/four subjects. If you enjoy and understand those three subjects really well you might do better than a generalist with a broader skill set so I think predicting a levels based on GCSE grades was probably always partly an art.

I do think it will be a stretch to return to pre covid grade boundaries by 2023 but to do otherwise they would need to in the long term shift entry requirements to universities and there would be no way to separate those who would have always got A and those who were more borderline but now do get A.

I think in her classes there has been a leap in expectations and hopefully their marks will start to feed through into realistic A level grade expectations.

But then, in 2022, perhaps 33% got L9/8 at GCSE, but in 2024 20% get an A grade at A Level.....that's a lot more 'disappointed' L8/9 students who thought they were top students, but who didn't see it translate to A Level.

But that's not raking into account that those with low GCSEs won't be likely to take that subject at A level. So the percentage is not based on the same group. A levels are harder. They're supposed to be.