Implications for students doing GCSEs in 2022

[Notcontent]

Just reading that a record number of students got top gcse grades. That’s obviously great for those teens, after a very difficult year 10 and 11.

But students in 2022 will be back to doing formal exams and I think their results will compare unfavourably to the current results. Will that have negative implications for university applications etc?

It depends on what they do about grade allocations, rather than that they are returning to exams.

If they match this year’s grade allocation then they will be fine competing against 2021 candidates in terms of grades, but that is unlikely to happen.

If they return to the 2019 grade distribution they will be really disadvantaged.

They could use 2020 (the abandoned algorithm year which had grade inflation but not as high as 2021) or they could do something else.

It’s going to be a massive area of discussion.

Although you’re talking about GCSEs and uni applications rather than A-levels.

Unis rarely look at GCSE results, so it will be A-level results that matter.

Thanks @noblegiraffe. Yes, I see what you mean - although I thought that for some of the really competitive and hard to get courses (eg medicine) they do look at gcse results… but I could be wrong.

But I suppose the implications are going to be there for both gcse and A levels. My dd is doing GCSEs in 2022. She has worked really hard and done well in year 10 but it seems likely her year group will not get amazing results.

Her year group won’t get record-breaking results but that doesn’t mean that individuals won’t do very well.

Any extremely competitive course is going to think carefully about admissions in the next few years. Entry exams are one suggestion.

I have a dreadful feeling this year group are going to get screwed over. I've made concerned posts a few times but they get ignored.

They've had the main GCSE content learning year massively disrupted and their grades will be in competition with this years inflated set.

It's not to say I begrudge this year group their inflated grades but the impact on the GCSE 2022 group mustn't get lost in the excitement at being "back to normal".

Agree. I have dd in year 11 from sept and I'm worried for them.

I agree. My DD is starting in year 11 this September, she is very worried after not getting great results in her year 10 mocks. She struggled with the lockdown learning, it wasn’t of a very good standard and now school admit there are large gaps in learning.

As well as the government lockdowns, she lost 8 weeks due to close contact isolations in school.

I too worry that this years GCSE pupils will suffer as a result.
Dd was A levels last year so even though she didn’t get to do them at least she still had AS from previous year and had sat mocks and thankfully her grades awarded were accurate.
Ds however has missed a lot of teaching in year 11 (In NI so GCSES are in our year 12).
He also will sit maths and English papers in Nov/Dec which would normally already be done in May.
Hopefully I’m wrong but I just have a bad feeling for this year.

I worry more about all the students applying for university in 2022. There are many students on overflowing course being encouraged with incentives to defer until next year meaning there will be even fewer places on some really popular courses in 2022. Plus many students have chosen to defer with all the uncertainty around the university experience (Will they end up remote learning for most if their first year). So students next year will also be competing for places with those already holding their high grades from this year (and we know universities love those who already hold their grades).

Then if we still have further travel restrictions world wide those who would have taken a gap year will also be applying in 2022. Plus 2004 was the start of a short period when the the birth rate started to increase dramatically. I think it will be a real battle for places next year.

The government has indicated that they intend to gradually move the grades back to pre-pandemic levels over several years. If that is what happens, then 2022 results are likely to be somewhere in the region of what was achieved in 2020 and not significantly lower than 2021. Anecdotally, I’m expecting my new year 11 and year 13 classes to do very well indeed next year. The end of year 12 mock exams were the best we’d ever had at my school, which we were not expecting. I think the pandemic has normalised kids spending a lot more time studying. I was worried that to get a 2020 grade distribution they’d have to drop grade boundaries significantly and then we’d have angry headlines about how easy exams were. Having seen our mock results, I think grade boundaries will hold roughly where they are. I think the adjustments like removing tropics from some GCSEs and giving prior notice of what will be on the exams will balance out the more generous grade allocation.

I know it’s hard to have much faith in a government that has, at every turn, looked like they have no idea how schools work, but I think people at Ofqual grasp that you can’t just put grade distribution back to 2019 levels overnight.

@noblegiraffe

Although you’re talking about GCSEs and uni applications rather than A-levels.

Unis rarely look at GCSE results, so it will be A-level results that matter.

Really? Aren't GCSEs the actual hard data results which which you apply, rather than predicted results?

I would have thought some significant weight would be put on them?

The importance of GCSE results will probably depend on how competitive the course is.

If they have multiples of applicants with the required A Levels or predicted A Levels then certainly I would expect GCSEs to come into play, if it's a course that isn't so oversubscribed then the right A Level grades will probably be all that matters.