@admission
The admission criteria for croxley danes is not that unusual. There will be few who meet the admission criteria 1 or 2 to do with being looked after and it is the number of siblings in the school which will predetermine how many places are available on distance. The PAN is 180, so 18 places will be allocated on musical ability after those admitted on sibling criteria. After that is straight line distance from the school to the home.
It is not clear from the school's website as to whether in fact the school does actually have year 10 and 11 pupils at present. If not then you are looking at siblings from a smaller cohort of pupils than it will be in a couple of years, when the school has years 7 to 11 on site.
Croxley Danes only has Y7 and Y8 at the moment. So fewer siblings will get a place for next year or two.
I definitely recommend going down the musical aptitude route.
Locally, the current y6 is a bulge year, so it's going to be stressful for those children applying for places. Your year should be a tiny bit easier. But I'm afraid it's always difficult and lots don't get a school they'd particularly like.
It feels very unfair to have these partially selective schools in an area of such high population. Some year groups have fewer places than children, leading to the children being allocated places miles/hours away. The partially selective schools take children from many, many miles away, leaving local children without a place.
I'm guessing you want to avoid being allocated W?
My DD went through your same dilemma 2 years ago. If it's any comfort, that was also a bulge year and there were lots of very disappointed families. But after some people took up private school offers, and many went down the appeal route, I know of none that are left without a place they are at least satisfied with (even if it wasn't on their original list of choices).