Movement on waiting list for popular/oversubscribed state secondaries

[winterrabbit]

DS2 is on the waiting list for our preferred state secondary. He is several hundred down so we have no chance unless we move closer to the school (within 0.5). We had not moved before as the plan was to send him to an independent school where he currently has an offer, however, due to a change in circumstances (potential loss of job, wanting to move house anyway, stamp duty holiday) we may now consider moving. However, obviously all offers have now been made so he would only get a place if other people decline those offers before September. I think/hope there will be some movement.

To get a year 7 WL offer Op i think you'd have to get a move on. WL offers go out as places are rejected, and while that could be up until September, the bulk must surely be sooner rather than later.

How quickly could you realistically move? If you got a buyer next week I doubt you'd be in by July.

Do you have another state option?

If you've not even started the moving process, being moved and then getting a place off the wait list before September sounds like very tall order. I'm guessing by the 0.5 miles that you must be in London or another big city, so potentially you're somewhere that many parents do hang onto both state and private offers - but I would think a lot of those parents would make decisions before the start of next term (so as not to have to pay private fees, if they are going to go state).
You probably need a local view, but round here most parents stick with their state choice once they've made the decision - there is much less movement in and out of school than there was at primary level. So you would need to consider the possibility that you moved, didn't get a place for the start of Year 7, so had to send your DC to whatever his current offered school is. Would that be practical (in terms of distance/logistics)? If a place came up later, would you want to move him once he'd got settled?

It's also worth finding out if you are in an area where everyone gets put on the waiting list for higher preference schools, or whether people have to actively ask to go on the waiting list - are you actually 100s down the waiting list, or are most people above you not actively wanting a place at the school now? Also bear in mind that if you are happy to start your DC somewhere and then move him later, you have probably higher chances of getting in to your preferred school - as many parents won't want to do this.

Thank you both, all very good points. We are in North London. I do think there will be movement but it's not guaranteed, of course. Appreciate the timing is tight. I was thinking we'd be moved in by end of May/June. Apparently the market is very "hot" and houses in catchment go the day they come on the market so I was assuming the timeframes would be quick but maybe I am not being realistic. If he didn't get a place then we would just send him to one of the indies where he has an offer.

Agree the bulk of offers will be sooner rather than later. It's a very middle class area where lots do go private so it could be that if there is movement on private school wait lists in the summer then that will filter down and people will free up places.

Depends also on size of intake. A 240 intake per year school may have more places coming up than a 90 PAN school. DD’s state grammar school with 160 intake typically goes down to around 23 to 27 on wait list so one class worth. Many of those end up at an independent or other grammar. Another school I know that is a comprehensive with 180 intake and is rarely a first choice moves by about 100 pupils so over half.