Anyone know about potential importance of a reduced PAN for an appeal?

[Neighneigh]

So, are top of the waiting list for an out of catchment state secondary which was traditionally under-subscribed. Their GCSE results are approx 20% higher than the school we have been offered; offered school also has limited GCSE subject options (for example you can't do history & geography together). Son's best friends from the next village along are all going to our first choice.

Anyway we have been advised to submit an appeal and I am wondering whether we can argue that the school has capacity due to being below total capacity (approx 200 below) and also the pan has reduced by 20 places without a material change to the school facilities. So I think that they've basically reduced the pan due to historic lack of applications yet the school has a growing reputation so more people now want to go.

If I can confirm that there haven't been any actual changes that the fabric or staff, that they used to have space so they must therefore actually have space now?

Also I'm told by the council that the PAN was reduced to 170 but the school has already agreed to take 10 extra, half of which have already turned down their places, but because they are not yet at 169 they can't make us an offer.

Please someone stop me totally losing it on all this! Any help gratefully received.

Sounds complicated but sounds like a valid point in the argument that the school can easily accommodate extra pupils, particularly as they were willing to take more, and they presumably wouldn't need an extra class, as they could have 6 classes of 30.

Saying that, you will need arguments as to why your son would be disadvantaged not going to this school. What do they offer that is of particular benefit to you? They won't be that interested in friendships or the other school's poorer results. Are there subjects or extra curriculars that are more unique?

Also fingers crossed for waiting list movement!

Thanks @BendingSpoons one thing I forgot was the first choice has a sixth form, offered school does not, so he can carry on his education in the same place. The A Level teachers teach lower down the school so for us this says teaching standards will be higher, something bourne out by GCSE results. It's all so stressful