GCSE maths pass standard has been devalued despite Gove

[noblegiraffe]

Here's an absolutely fascinating blog from Education Datalab that shows that the standard of maths capability required to get a pass (C/4) has been dropping for over a decade. This includes the massive curriculum upheaval implemented under Gove in order to raise standards. ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2021/03/has-a-gcse-grade-c-4-lost-its-value

It has been a concern for a while that the comparative outcomes method of maintaining the proportion of students passing GCSE maths could actually conceal issues in secondary education. How would we be able to tell if standards were declining due to the critical shortage of maths teachers and increasing class sizes if the same proportion of students were guaranteed to pass their GCSE each year? PISA scores have been trumpeted as showing an improving picture inews.co.uk/news/education/pisa-test-results-2019-rankings-england-education-england-scores-maths-370158

What Education Datalab have done, therefore, is select out the students sitting the PISA test who passed their maths GCSE with a C/4 and compared their PISA scores over the years. It's clear that students who get a C/4 have been getting lower and lower PISA scores as time has gone on even as the England average has increased.

We obviously had large grade inflation last year due to the 'best of algorithm or teacher assessment' approach, and this year is likely to see similar.

What will happen in future years to recalibrate? A fall in the pass rate will not be accepted by the public therefore dangerous for a government to implement - that's why the idea of making a grade 5 the pass for the league tables was dropped.

And how can we really tell if standards are falling? The national reference tests (2nd graph) are not particularly thorough and don't tease out the students performing at pass grade level.

What is going to set the standard in future years? A return to pre-pandemic pass rates and the assumption that students' education hasn't been affected? Do we need GCSE grade 4 to actually represent a standard of achievement?

I think we need a grade 4 to be a 'fixed standard' as it is used by employers & further education as a fixed standard showing some level of 'capability'.

It seems crazy that someone's entry into a L3 BTEC / L3 Apprenticeship is gate kept by a standard that varies year on year.

I think that would be better - our system is like a running race, only those who get the top marks get the top grades. Some students will always fail, because others are slightly better not because they don’t deserve to pass. In some years the same standard candidates would have got a 4 whereas in others they would have got a 5 or 6.

Is it Germany who have a system more like the high jump (where anyone who meets the required standard gets that grade)? I’d like us to have a system that tested in that way.

@TeenMinusTests

I think we need a grade 4 to be a 'fixed standard' as it is used by employers & further education as a fixed standard showing some level of 'capability'.

It seems crazy that someone's entry into a L3 BTEC / L3 Apprenticeship is gate kept by a standard that varies year on year.

This - you could have someone not got in/have to resit because they got a 3, but someone of equal ability the next year could get a 4 and pass. How is that fair or logical?

This is Ofqual's job, to maintain standards, so I would like to see them reply to this graph.

They have been very concerned with stopping grade inflation by maintaining comparable outcomes with previous years. Have they actually achieved grade inflation by ignoring dropping standards?

The exam boards are allowed to argue with Ofqual about grade boundaries if it means that a larger proportion of pupils pass than should when a grade boundary is set at a particular point. They are supposed to provide evidence that pupils are performing at a higher level than previous years. When Edexcel tried this one year, Ofqual's response was 'it has been Ofqual’s consistent position that greatest weight should be given to predictions based on key stage 2 attainment'
www.tes.com/news/ofqual-forces-exam-board-raise-c-grade-boundary-maths-gcse

Which seems to say the cohort (as a cohort, not individuals) will get what they were supposed to get based on how they did in primary school regardless of whether it all went horribly wrong for them at secondary.