CSG - What do the cut off distances mean this year?

[GreenAndSpringy]

I’ve been following the Banded cut off distances for Camden School for Girls (CSG) with interest for some years now.

2020
A 0.46
B 0.77
C 0.47
D 0.40
2019
A 0.82
B 0.49
C 0.31
D 0.54
2018
A 0.80
B 0.58
C 0.88
D 0.35

But the latest have really thrown a curve ball:
2021
A 1.32
B 0.81
C 0.42
D 0.30

I’d like to get my head around what this disproportionate A Band distance is actually telling us.

I guess it’s possible that many of the girls who sat the Banding test and received the higher scores asked to be removed from the Council’s list before the 1st March if they received an Indy offer before then (or moved from Town). This kind of fits in with the narrative that more children are taking up private options this year. This isn’t my preferred theory.

I suspect that it’s more likely that a larger cohort than usual of academically very-able girls took the test and weren’t dissuaded by the historical cut off points. This theory suggests the A band is made up mostly of girls who would ordinarily score amongst the highest 10% of a CAT and thus are distributed amongst the population accordingly - hence the longer offer distances. It also suggests that most of the sibling offers weren’t in the higher bands this year.

Furthermore, if the trend to go private this year is real (at least locally), my guess is that the unpublished Waiting List offer distances for Band A (and to an extent Band B) would extend rather further still.

Am wondering if anybody else has been struck by the unusual cut off distances this year and has any comment, or come up with their own ideas/theories. One final data point is that Band D is 0.3 miles and there are at least 10 girls waiting who live no more than 0.1 mile past that point - it is a VERY squashed band.

If it helps we were something like 145 on an Outstanding primary waiting list and got an offer-eventually!

I don’t think you should write anything off. 71 for 180 places v 17 for less than 30 ( the banding and music places). You never know. I’m glad you’ve got a great school.

What happened at LSU? The sweets? Meah! Could have happened anywhere.

@Camdenish
“What happened at LSU? The sweets?”
The press LOVE a story involving a RC Girls’ School. Still, the coverage brought the modern phenomenon of boxing contraband in garish looky-likey American Candy packaging to mine and many other people’s attention. But yes, could have happened anywhere.

One another explanation is that we're perhaps seeing signs of the exodus out of central london post pandemic. anecdotally noticeable in "professional classes" that there have been family moves outside of London in excess of what we are seeing in other years (need more space, hope WFH is durable enough that less tied to central location for the job, etc).

Would also fit that this is mostly noticeable in Band A (apologies for the quick & dirty assumption, just would make sense that the high job movers would also be the ones with kids well prepped for this kind of tests)

@alejandro Musical aptitude is associated with a high performance level with regards to CATs, similarly so is language aptitude. This could indeed be an indication that bilingual/multilingual families in sought after professions have left, or are about to leave the U.K.

It could also be a pull from Parli. Good all round school in that it gets the results but is well known for welfare care. All the building work is finished so it’s got great physical space and is on the Heath.

Acland Burghley was 0.64.

2011 : 0.57
2012 : 0.87
2013 : 1.44
2014 : 2.83
2015 : 2.75

Sorry they’re old but they’re from when we were looking.

Found more.

2014/2015 and 2016 anyone that wanted got a place.

2017 : 2.66
2018 : 0.99

This is when it got the new head I think? Added a few children over the PAN as they had space in higher years.

Also sorry to derail but I’m avoiding actual work...

No idea about this specific school but we have had 5 new neighbours move in from north London in the last month and 3 more houses are sold to Londoners, the local private school has a long waiting list of incomers from London. It's highly unusual according to my friend to have more than one or two in a year, 27 houses sold to London based clients since May when they reopened. There's a higher than normal probability that families have decided to relocate after the application process started in some cases

@minniemoocher could you find out what part of North London they're from and report back to us! I wondered where all my neighbours had gone. It is very quiet round here...

Where are you, if you don't mind saying of course.

@alejandro’s theory took on a lot of traction just there!
I knew people were leaving the country but didn’t realise that so many were just looking for breathing room out of the Big Smoke.

@minniemoocher, I’m also curious to know where Londoners are flocking to. Which part of the country are you based in?

Who is moving into London if families (with family size houses) are moving out? House prices and rent don't seem to be getting cheaper.

@Camdenish

Acland Burghley was 0.64.

2011 : 0.57
2012 : 0.87
2013 : 1.44
2014 : 2.83
2015 : 2.75

Sorry they’re old but they’re from when we were looking.

@Camdenish “2014 anyone that wanted got a place 2015. anyone that wanted got a place 2016 anyone that wanted got a place 2017 : 2.66 2018 : 0.99”

And I’ll add
2019 : 0.71
2020 : 0.64

So those are recent historic distances for AB all in one place, which as Camdenish has shown, tell a part of Acland Burghley’s story.
——
So, with Tremendous political upheaval, a once in a century pandemic and the ongoing effects of last decade’s Baby boom, one local school finished its renovations and is gaining confidence through effective leadership (Parli), another school is winning hearts through its own leadership strategies (AB), and (perhaps) another school experiencing a PR wobble (LSU), the local contenders in this long running Game of Playgrounds continue their Saga.

In a few years time there are going to be mumsnet contributors and lurkers looking through this forum at threads like these and wondering what all the fuss was about!

Property developers/landlords buying the houses as rentals or perhaps the families are renting them out are my guesses.
0.64 cut off for AB is tiny! No wonder kids didn't get places there.

That makes sense Exiled. Well sort of. I wonder who is moving to London at the moment.

I wonder if more girls are choosing AB. It would be interesting to know the ratio of boys to girls for this intake in comparison to previous years.

@Camdenish. Amongst dd’s peers, AB is the overwhelming preference for girls who don’t want to go to a single gender school. Also a top choice for girls who have younger male siblings.

Haverstock hasn’t quite won over local parents yet, but there was a class visit organised for then Y5 kids in 2019 which enthused those children. We had Haverstock down on our list as a safeguard against a religious school, had dd been a ds, that’s probably where she - or rather he - would have certainly gone. The school visit Haverstock organised was so successful my own kid would have been happy had that been the provided option. This is quite an achievement given the other schools she saw.

I really hope the leaders at Haverstock can establish the school as a success before it gets “reduced”, I hate the idea of unwilling families being forced into religious institutions, a thriving Haverstock would reduce that outcome.

Quite a few kids from dd’s school moved to AB last year, all those I’ve spoken to are really happy there, and those I know are all delightful, imaginative children. Kids with SEN seem to thrive at AB as well as at Parli.

AB distances correction (sorry!)
2019 : 0.71
2020 : 0.77
2021 : 0.64

The one thing that put me off Haverstock was the three year GCSEs. I imagine they're irrelevant now as I think Ofsted frown on them. Have they maintained their head? We didn't "need" it anyway as AB was always a reality.

What religious schools will families get?

@GreenAndSpringy it’s okay, I get it. Secondary school admissions brought some awful memories back for us of the reception allocation.

@Camdenish - Thank you! I feel “seen” :D

Coming back to add a few more current data points for anyone trawling this year’s experiences to help them make their own decisions in the coming years. As of the first week of May 2021:

CSG - in contrast to the expansive Band A offer distance circle, the one for Band D is sphincter tight. On National Offer day you had to live within 0.3miles from the school to get a place. At this moment, those living about 0.1mile further from that cut off distance will still have a dozen or so D banded girls above them on the waiting list.

Acland Burghley
Furthest offer distance was 0.64. Currently, at about 1.2 miles, waiting list is close to 80.

Parliament Hill
The unofficial waitlist circle is about the tightest it has ever been (my belief is that is about 1.4). Those on the waitlist within 1.3miles are likely to have already been accepted and if you are on the cusp of this distance there’s a realistic chance for a June opportunity to accept a place.

A few of DD's friends have been offered places at Parli now. They live a 5 minute walk from us. She's currently 23 on the waiting list and we're about 1.5 miles away. I know she would have got a place by July in 2019. We're not giving up hope just yet but don't want to be overly optimistic either!!!

The previous year band D of CSG only moved in the wrong direction. Band A moved by 0.0x of a mile.

Laughing at “sphincter tight”

There is some movement even in the first couple of weeks of term Exiledinislington, if you’d be prepared to move your DD after starting somewhere else.

@ExiledinIslington

From what I gather the waiting list at Acland Burghley doesn't move so much. It seemed to be the top choice for a lot of the boys and a few girls in DD's year. I think only one got in. LSU wasn't on our radar being atheists and we are too far from EGA, plus at some open days, I saw 2 girls looking to leave there which put me off. Unfortunately, DD never actually saw Highbury Fields!

I am surprised at that

Isnt AB not very good anymore? I remember it got a very bad Ofsted report.

“ Isnt AB not very good anymore? I remember it got a very bad Ofsted report.”
AB’s current Headteacher (N John) arrived in 2015 and Ofsted was already acknowledging his efforts as being positive in 2016. By 2018 he had obtained an overall “Good” Ofsted report for the school and and an “Outstanding” gong for his Leadership skills.
By 2018 word had got around with prospective parents and the distance criteria shrank to 1mile from 2.66 and over. It has been shrinking ever since.

All the kids I know there (from 6th form to Y7) are very happy.

The other angle to AB’s current popularity are the local alternative mixed and boys’ schools, particularly for those who aren’t religious.