Will more people hold onto state/ grammar places this year?

[KateBlush]

We're on a waiting list for a partially selective grammar. If it plays out like previous years we'll get a place by the summer, but wondering if there'll be less turnover this year if fewer opt for private given economic climate. What do people think? Will more be holding onto good state options in 2021?

I think it will be a balance, some people will go state because of job insecurity if their sectors have been badly affected but others will go private because of the perception of better online offerings especially those in fairly secure professional roles who might previously have decided to go state.

There were definitely more applications to grammar schools in my area this year. We are in an out of county town literally on the border with Bucks so historically many children have got places at the grammars based on distance. This year, only siblings have got places and the local comprehensive has had to put on another class to accommodate the local children who previously would have gone to grammar.

It's difficult to say.

The number of pupils in London getting first preference secondary school has fallen this year, attributed in part to uncertainties about 11+ results at time of CAF deadline. So will that mean more or fewer of those with grammar offers being those who were also trying for private schools? It's really hard to unpick.

I think you just have to cross your fingers and hope for the best!

I think more will go private as the online tuition was so much better than what most of the grammar schools offered. Our private school is absolutely rammed with new kids since the pandemic started, so much so that parents are starting to be unhappy about increasing class sizes.

I think it will work both ways. We don't live in a grammar school area but Dd was accepted to our local academically selective independent girls school, in previous years it is likely that she would have received a full bursary as I only take home £20K. However, the school are (rightly) prioritising financial aid to girls already at the school whose families have found themselves struggling, so we have had to turn down her place opening up a place for somebody else.

We live in Sutton with lots of super selective grammars, we thought of going for independent options, but have decided to accept the grammar offer as my company has had several rounds of layoffs and I am worried about job security. I work in a niche job so hope that I am safe as finding a replacement with my skillset would be difficult, but if I was to lose my job it would also be difficult to find another one due to the niche nature of it. We can cope with just one salary, but losing my salary would definitely mean no money for independent schools. Right now we're saving in case the worst happens and I lose my job.
I know lots of families who are doing really well financially during the pandemic. There will be those like us who are cautious and those who find themselves in the position to be able to pay for independent education for the first time.

I believe many privates had more than usual applicants (ours certainly did and it is not in an affluent area) due to the much better provision during lockdown than the local state schools. i spoke to several parents who said they would have waited until secondary to make the move but opted to do it earlier. A few people will not be able to afford it any longer, but seems to me education is the last thing that is sacrificed when cutting back on finances.

@KateBlush we're in the same situation. We'll find out in mid March where we are on the waiting list for the super selective grammar. Judging by the private school threads on here and anecdotal evidence in RL, private schools had more applications than normal with fewer schools going to their WL for places. Unfortunately I imagine that will have a knock-on effect for the grammar WLs with more children who didn't get an independent place taking up their grammar or state option.

Depends on the area and school. Tiffin / Tiffin Girls online provision has been excellent. They had introduced Chromebooks before the pandemic so the transition was easier. I sense anecdotally that slightly more this year who would have normally chosen independent are heading to grammar, maybe because of the online provision, financial uncertainly also the move towards widening access to state school children amongst top companies

I agree though that some families have done very well during the last year (big salaries and haven't spent much) so the choice of independent would be easier than ever

I think it will be a mix, as others have said. Unfortunately, one thing I do think is likely is that parents probably going private might be more inclined to hold onto their state places until the last minute, because of the uncertainty. We won't be, as I don't think it's fair to do so - but I can see the temptation. Eg a parent wanting to go private but just waiting a few more months to make sure their job's secure. Or a parent wanting to go state, but waiting for more reassurance that there won't be further lockdowns, which might push them into private for better remote provision. I wouldn't be surprised if there was more WL movement than usual in August/ September this year.

@magenpies
one thing I do think is likely is that parents probably going private might be more inclined to hold onto their state places until the last minute, because of the uncertainty.

Agree. I do not blame them though.

However, in the indie thread, the demand remains really high - with some bulge years as well ...

@TomorrowOnce yes the bulge year will probably have more effect than anything else. Apparently 2009-2010 was a high birth year.

Agree @TomorrowOnce, the indie demand is huge this year. The school we're taking (not in the London pressure cooker) was massively oversubscribed - even more than usual. But the percentage of those parents who are also accepting their state places for now is an unknown. It's not of course something people tend to advertise!