If a child is sats level 4 at this stage in year 7...

[Tiggles]

If a child is sats level 4 at this stage in year 7, would you expect them to fail their gcse?
We are in Wales so aren't working on the new 1-9 gradings. DS school report says he is still working on a level 4 in science (where he ended yr6) and has the prediction that he will fail science gcse.
For most subjects he is 5- (or above) and it predicts he will pass them at gcse. How far behind is he? And should I be worried? (I am). He had been predicted a level 5 to leave primary with, but that all went out the window with Covid and getting no science lessons from March to July.

I have no experience in the UK system, but we are an expat family and have done we arrive in our current posting in Australia when my second started y7 and new language, new curriculum, new everything including another trauma of moving and he was put in the lowest stream when he started and when up up and up in a steep line and joined the top classes and top results.

What I am trying to say is that nothing is written. Yes covid is a bitch but in 2021 education and learning is not limited to the school walls. There are so many resources. It takes determination and a lot of work.
I bought books, downloaded others, looked at Khan, coursera and edx and was extremely strict on work ethics and work load because I knew from experience that fulfilment and success at school was part of the success for a new country.

Don't rely on others. Look at the curriculum , and buy books, start a program and dedicate 30 minimum for the subject you are worried about every day. If you can afford it , take a tutor, to work on testing.

I second the PP. My DD started Y7 being so behind it was unreal. She was working at about Y3 level in maths and English.
The lockdown was a huge blessing for us and I worked with her every day, completely ignored what the school set (it was all very easy SEN work) and basically home schooled her. She started to enjoy school as she was actually understanding.
After the first lockdown they tested them on return and she was moved out of SEN classes and into the lowest sets in mainstream.
We then did lots of work during the summer on y5/6 content and she was moved up sets yet again just before this lockdown. So she's now in set 3/4 and hopefully will move up once more when they test them on return.
I'm very lucky that she responded so well to me and I had the time, as I've just had to change jobs and wouldn't be as to repeat that. However, even 15-20 mins a day makes a huge difference. You'd be surprised how little people do at home with their kids. It's not too hard to overtake the lazy smart ones, especially as they get into secondary school.

I did GCSEs in 2007

I got straight 4s in year 6 sats, and 5/6s in Yr 9 sats. Based on this I was placed in middle or low sets for everything and predicted straight Ds or lower at GCSEs. I am also dyslexic - diagnosed at Uni 5 years later.

I ended up with 4 Bs and 7 As at GCSE. This was because I worked hard and predictions do not take effort and hard work into account!!!

Everyone catches up in their own time if you work at it.

No if level 4 in England was the same as level 4 in Wales. 4b was national average for y6 when England had levels and science wasn't graded.
Anecdotally my dd was level 4 in literacy and maths and all of her GCSEs where 7-9 (She has 8,8 in Science and predicted an A at A-level)
It's common for grades in y7 to appear quite static or seem backwards because they are studying some subjects for the first time in detail. Eg MFL Has your son had a chance to study all 3 sciences this year? My kids all had preferred sciences (biology, chemistry, physics) by GCSE and generally had 3 teachers each year so it took a while to settle into science which might be just them.

We had questions when our DC sats levels dropped between end of primary and Y7. We moved during the DC primary school years and it's a very different system here in Wales.

We were told the KS2 levels and the KS3 levels weren't on the same system - they didn't follow on.

We were told KS2 level 4 was where they expected most children to be at end of primary and KS2 level 5 which they got in some subjects was realistically the highest level possible at their primary.

We then noted they dropped to KS3 level 4 and asked questions - then checked welsh government sites which did seem to confirm what we were being told. It's a different grading system so the drop wasn't something to be concerned about which as they went up in following years seem to be true. It seemed form the comments it was a common parental question and that the teacher soften wished this was made clearer.

Levels went up over KS3 years - and eldest sitting GCSE is predicted A*,A and B and next child has higher sat levels now and in Y9 is most teachers are suggesting those sort of grades are where they'll end up as well.

They all did well with the yearly Welsh tests - though they are adjusted for age and the GCSE exams aren't so never sure how helpful they actually were.

I've not found MN very useful with Welsh schooling system TBH – I’ve had to argue I was correct about A*-G grades and fact they sit many GCSE exams at end of Yr10 and not just at end of Y11.

I think you'd be best asking the school and teachers directly if possible - there's often been some confusion even with the same reports if they telling us the current Sat grade or what they predict they'll be at end of KS3 though that might just be my children's school issue.

But based on what we were told about our children no I wouldn't worry about not passing GCSE grades based on sat levels in Y7 though I'd be worried about lack of science lessons as all mine including my Y7 have been getting something since September at home even when it was just their year group self isolating.

These are good for science :senecalearning.com/en-GB/ and my DC science department seem to be using www.thenational.academy/ quite a bit for some lessons.

I am getting www.tassomai.com/ for WJEC science for eldest currently sitting GCSE as half the triple sceince exams at at end of Yr10 and half Y11 I was paying a lower amount per month though they've changed princing structures since then. Finding WJEC specific course help hasn't always been straightforward.

He’s so young things can change.

@Tiggles

If a child is sats level 4 at this stage in year 7, would you expect them to fail their gcse? We are in Wales so aren't working on the new 1-9 gradings. DS school report says he is still working on a level 4 in science (where he ended yr6) and has the prediction that he will fail science gcse. For most subjects he is 5- (or above) and it predicts he will pass them at gcse. How far behind is he? And should I be worried? (I am). He had been predicted a level 5 to leave primary with, but that all went out the window with Covid and getting no science lessons from March to July.

I am surprised a 4 in Y7 equates to failing GCSEs. In "old money" I thought a 5= a C grade, which he ought to be able to achieve in the next year or so?

I would speak to the school. I don't see how they can be predicting a Y7 will fail their GCSEs at this stage and I actually think that's a very unhelpful thing to do!

On the other hand, saying "he doesn't appear to be on course at the moment" enables parents to look at what they can do to help, which is arguably better than waiting until year 11 when it may be clear whether or not he will pass, but too late to do very much.

statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Schools-and-Teachers/Examinations-and-Assessments/Key-Stage-3-Core-Subjects
All learners in their final year of Key Stage 3 must be assessed through teacher assessments. The general expectation is that the majority of 14 year olds will attain level 5 in each subject.

Witin the same school report I've had some teacher give predicted levels they expect at end of KS3 and others give what our child was currently testing at - so first thing I'd do is contact that teacher and ask what this level is refering to and go from there.

The end of KS2 they expect most children to be Level 4 - but
KS2 level 4 is not equivalent to KS3 level 4.

Though noting he was at expected level at end of primary - and then asking why he suddenly not expected to pass GCSE after 6 months of secondary school would be one of my first questions.

He had been predicted a level 5 to leave primary with, but that all went out the window with Covid and getting no science lessons from March to July

My current Y7 got no work end of last year - her end of Y6 - the Primary washed their hands of academic home learning completely. Her school wasn't only primary around her to do that either.

At secondary she never had a lesson in the science labs yet - as they confined them to one room most of the year and were only just allowing them to go to PE block or IT labs before Chirstmas.

which is arguably better than waiting until year 11 when it may be clear whether or not he will pass, but too late to do very much.

In wales exams aren't all at end of Y11.

For triple science it was 45% exams for each subject end of Y10 - the practical 10 % should have been start of Y11 first term at least at her school and then remaining 45% in exams end of Y11.

DD1 first first proper GCSE assesments. were in first term of Y10 and first GCSE exam after Christmas Y10. One of the big difference is exams and assesments seem to be more constant throughout GCSE courses here.

I don't know if its just my DC school but they limit number taking triple science GCSE to just one class - so now Y9 you need to be in top science group to be allowed to take triple science.

So if there are problems may well be even more important to do something sooner rather than later.

Thanks everyone, sorry to come back so late!
Some good points to raise there with the school.
I hadn't realised the ks2 and 3 levels were different.