Will GCSE grades be lower than normal this year?

[muminthesummer]

Does it sound like grades will NOT be in line with normal years and DC will achieve lower grades this year because of all the disruption? I feel so sorry for all the year 11s and 13s it's so unfair.

I very much doubt it.
The 'grade boundaries' will be lower, but the %s at each grade will be the same.
Otherwise there will be an outcry.

There will be an outcry anyway as anyone who doesn't get what they think they deserve will say they were robbed, but I don't believe there will be fewer 7s, 4s etc than usual.

No. If anything I suspect slightly higher so the government can’t be blamed for lower grades.

As with last year they'll be higher as teacher assessed.

Next years lot are the ones to worry about....

No. Last year they were higher and even in normal years they are calculated so that the top x% get 9, next y% get 8 etc

@titchy I have a dc in year 10 and am so worried. Surely they will be looked at too

I think higher.

They will be teacher assessed and unlike last year, they’ve still got a few months of work to do. (As I understand it).

Kim Re current y10. They will think about them come Sept/Oct when they see how things are. I wouldn't be surprised if they do the adaptations that were planned for current y11 (eg one less set text for Eng Lit), but otherwise at the moment I'd be expecting normal exams but same % passing as in 2019, possibly slightly lower grade boundaries to account for lost time.

Warning over results ‘looking different’ to previous years
When exams were going ahead, Ofqual had pledged that results would be as generous as those issued last year. However the new plan seems to have changed that. Lebus warned it was “important that the consultation makes clear to all, especially those who rely on the results to make selection decisions, that overall outcomes this year will likely look different from 2020 and previous years”. He said told Williamson this will be “important for your work with the post-16 and higher education sectors to secure orderly progression and to protect the interests of disadvantaged students”

This is what has concerned me. What do you think it means?

I think they're concerned that 2020's results were skewed upwards, but that it was mainly those that are economically advantaged that benefitted. Pupils that are disadvantaged didn't have as much uplift as others (overall, not on an individual basis!).
That cannot be allowed to happen again, particularly as disadvantaged pupils are already less likely to continue education after GCSE and after A Levels.

I think it means that results will be higher this year. If they're going with teacher assessment and that changing teacher assessment will only happen in exceptional circumstances, then results will be higher. Last year the algorithm moderated 40% of teacher assessments and the net effect was downwards.

Think it'll be like last year and much higher than normal and going to teacher assessment. No incentive for teachers to undergrade and no-one ever complains about being overgraded.

I would expect y10 will also go to teacher assessment and similar again but that remains to be seen, last years y11s only missed Mar to May and went to teacher assessment, a lot of year 10s have already missed that much and schools likely to be closed to at least Easter then isolations. If you go to exams you'll get increased inequality between private / state, those with family support and those without which wouldn't be acceptable. I think y9 will be first normal year.

I think last year results were up across the board but private then grammar increased the most, presumably as had brighter students, more resources, more parental support and more remote education provided on average. That obviously increases inequality though just altering results is a small part of the issue but a quick political fix.

@LiverColouredBitchPointer

I think they're concerned that 2020's results were skewed upwards, but that it was mainly those that are economically advantaged that benefitted. Pupils that are disadvantaged didn't have as much uplift as others (overall, not on an individual basis!). That cannot be allowed to happen again, particularly as disadvantaged pupils are already less likely to continue education after GCSE and after A Levels.

This. I think disadvantaged students will somehow get lifted grades, a bit like 11+ grades are age standardised. God knows how though if teachers are marking, rather than the country applying a national marking standard.

It doesn't work like that. They use their mock grades and teacher assessments. Shouldn't be higher or lower

I think disadvantaged students will somehow get lifted grades, a bit like 11+ grades are age standardised
How will they define a disadvantaged student though?

Maddy68, that hasn't been decided. They are currently consulting on how to do the assessments and considering mini exams, whaever they are.

I think they could define disadvataged students by poverty indicators eg schools with 50% FSM or in an economically deprived ward etc.

A child with fsm (and pp) where they are in a school with only 2% fsm is still a disadvantaged child on national benchmarks. Schools with 50% fsm are relatively rare. They do have past results to look at and I think huge jumps in 8/9 grades being awarded might raise alarm bells. However some schools will want the 4/5 grades higher so I doubt any results will be truly accurate. Virtually impossible.

No they will be higher
Teachers giving the grades and will be v generous
Also no algorithms the fuck it up this year

I think they will be higher. Some schools were generous last year and others not . This year every one will think all the others are going to be generous so we will be too.

Schools with 50 percent FSM are not rare in London. My DC, 2 different schools, are at schools with over 70 percent FSM and climbing.

Achievement will be lower but grades probably higher. It's setting up some for disaster at the next stage tbh.

Grades will be higher than usual. I’m expecting them to be broadly in line with last year, although it will be interesting to see how the moderation process pans out. I was concerned about the impact of not doing GCSEs last year on year 12s but they’ve been great. I was worried they just wouldn’t cope with A Level but staff are really impressed with them. It’s made me question whether we need so much pressure on the end of year 11.

I was concerned about the impact of not doing GCSEs last year on year 12s but they’ve been great. I was worried they just wouldn’t cope with A Level but staff are really impressed with them. It’s made me question whether we need so much pressure on the end of year 11.

The opposite has been true for DD's school, lots of poor behaviour and low achievement in yr12, apparently because they took pupils that probably wouldn't have got in, in a normal year.

That’s interesting. Or results for GCSE from CAGs were fairly squarely in line with what we’d normally get (especially for the higher 6-9 grades) and so I don’t think we have a large swathe of kids who would not have got in in a normal year. I’m not saying that there have been no issues at all but they have a lot more to do with the impact of Covid on their induction, study supervision, timetables and attendance. I know other local Heads of Sixth Form have generally been pleasantly surprised by year 12 too. There are a couple of schools that are having issues but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Ultimately the kids who would have done well at Sixth Form if they had exams are generally still doing well, those who would not have done well if they’d had to do exams or would not have got in are unsurprisingly struggling. I suppose a lot hinges on how generous the school(s) they came from were with centre assessed grades. We have very few that I think would not have got it if they’d sat the exams.

@MadameMinimes

That’s interesting. Or results for GCSE from CAGs were fairly squarely in line with what we’d normally get (especially for the higher 6-9 grades) and so I don’t think we have a large swathe of kids who would not have got in in a normal year. I’m not saying that there have been no issues at all but they have a lot more to do with the impact of Covid on their induction, study supervision, timetables and attendance. I know other local Heads of Sixth Form have generally been pleasantly surprised by year 12 too. There are a couple of schools that are having issues but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Ultimately the kids who would have done well at Sixth Form if they had exams are generally still doing well, those who would not have done well if they’d had to do exams or would not have got in are unsurprisingly struggling. I suppose a lot hinges on how generous the school(s) they came from were with centre assessed grades. We have very few that I think would not have got it if they’d sat the exams.

Their better behaviour and engagement with learning might be more down to them being concerned about how their grades will be assessed following cags last year.