OP are you talking about mock exam grades, target grades or predicted grades?
On our system, target grades are generated centrally based on KS2 SATs/CATS tests. It drives me nuts; as a music teacher, excellence in Maths/English at age 11 does not equal a grade 8 or 9 in Music 5 years later. Our target grades are very aspirational but in my subject, the SLT "gets it" that good grades in Music depend on something more.
Predicted grades are what we think a kid could get based on their work to date, if they continued on the same trajectory. Finally, mock exam grades use the published grade boundaries for the paper they sat. Y11 sat the 2018 paper as their mock so we used 2018 grade boundaries.
As far as CAGs go, last year we spent ages looking at the group of 18 students. Yes, we had their mock exam but that is only 40% of the total. The other 60% is what used to be termed coursework. Most had recorded their performances so we could mark those pretty accurately. Some compositions were not finished; our school deadline was after lockdown. However, we had copies of what they had done and worked out what they could have achieved, trying to be fair. Then we had to rank them from best to worst and allocate grades to them.
Whilst you are right to be concerned about what will happen in schools next term, please be assured that most of us want the best for our students whilst balancing that with being fair to all. I keep telling my current year 11s to keep working hard, try their best in every test and ensure everything is saved securely. We have to be able to produce evidence for the CAGs we award. One bad test/exam is not the end of the world.