GCSE results - will the results be published by school?

[Twiningalldaylong]

I feel like my son's GCSE results were very fair. He got what he was predicted to get which was also what he got in his mocks. There was one subject where he went down a grade on his predicted and mock result for no apparent reason. His class mates were the same, all felt that it was fair if slightly harsh. We were happy on the day but more annoyed as we started to hear about how inflated the results have been. I also keep.bumping into parents from other schools in town and hearing about all the 9s.
Im just wondering if the results will ever come out in public? I would like to be able to compare the schools in our town and see how many 9s per subject were handed out? Not that we can do anything about it, and I know it will all come out in the wash at A-levels, I'm just interested.

They'll be published idc - probably once we're sure that these grades will stick IYSWIM

The government have said they won't publish any school or college level educational performance data based on tests, assessments or exams for 2020

I feel exactly the same. My dd did really well and were reasonably in line with what she expected although a couple were lower than mocks. So fair if maybe a little harsh. I’ve bumped into 4 different parents since Thursday and all dropping into conversation how their dd’s got 9’s. I am very surprised. Only 1 of the 4 is a high achieving grammar student the rest are at high school. I thought 9’s were absolute exceptions and very few would be awarded each year.

Totally get what your thought process is.

Ds results were also no shock and in line with mocks. 1 up (he thinks algorithm) and one down - drama but he knows he's not great at the written part.

Mostly from what I've seen and heard from kids at other local schools they also seemed to play fair - no one has presented results way above what they were doing.

However I'd also be interested to see the area as a whole and schools as a whole.

I think it's fair enough not to use for league tables etc.

But I do think parents of future pupils in these schools should also have this data. I say that as a parent who's child had to change school because of terrible ethos. I think parents should know which schools can accurately track progress well and guide students correctly and effectively based on honest and accurate data.

I'd also like progress 8.

Not to judge because that's not fair on pupils who had no control over their schools inflating results.

But if I saw a school with progress 8 roughly average for 4 years and 2020 was suddenly well above average I'd be more wary than a school who was constantly below average but remained so on 2020.

I have had a look (because ds had to move) at schools data previously and know you have to look at data as whole. The 2 schools I was looking at - 1 had increasing 4+ pass rate but consistent below average progress 8 and the other decreasing 4+ pass rate but average or above progress 8.

So of course cohorts do vary year on year but I wouldn't expect a huge change this year despite the grade reflecting a good day (I agree because you can't decide who will have a bad one!) - but I think trust in schools is important and this data will be quite illuminating!

9s are up 40% so there will indeed be lots more about. Ds1 did his last year and did well with two 8s and the rest 9s (not madly unusual in his cohort/our friendship group but still good). This year am hearing of lots with straight 9s, as one would expect with the 40% uplift

Progress 8 will not be calculated, and schools really should not be publishing their results. Although, the possibility of yet another U turn from the government on this cannot be ruled out

@TheFallenMadonna

Progress 8 will not be calculated, and schools really should not be publishing their results. Although, the possibility of yet another U turn from the government on this cannot be ruled out

And that's my problem.

I dont have an issue that a school may have 3% rise or whatever in grades. Cohorts vary.

Progress 8 and attainment 8 will show where this was honest and fair and where schools took advantage of the shit system and assuming they wouldn't be moderated.

Like I said - school beat me have had a 5% rise the past 3 years on results. Progress 9 remained the same.
Recent years the cohort hasn't just been local area but also the MC kids from new local village buses in who come with a higher starting point and have far more at home.
School itself hasn't improved the progress of kids - but results have raised due to other factors and influences.

@Revengeofthepangolins

9s are up 40% so there will indeed be lots more about. Ds1 did his last year and did well with two 8s and the rest 9s (not madly unusual in his cohort/our friendship group but still good). This year am hearing of lots with straight 9s, as one would expect with the 40% uplift

Do you have a source for this please?

Totally get where you're coming from-I have a DD in the same situation. She did about what was expected. I think she'd have got a couple of grades up if doing exams-and a couple down, but a fair reflection.
She has a number of friends at different local schools and you can tell from their results how the school behaved with cags.

I suspect schools where they inflated the cags ridiculously will just put a statement out of "best results ever" when they normally put a break down by subject.
Schools who have done well from the algorithm and cags mixed and are up on normal but don't look suspicious will do the full break down.
Schools who are about right from fair cags and algorithm suited them will vary between full break down, statement of "pleased with results" and perhaps a % of 9/8/7.
Schools who were harsh on cags and the algorithm didn't help will just put out a statement about how their pupils had worked hard and the results weren't a true reflection.

What is your source for 40% as I can't find that online?

Found this so far:

In England the proportion of grades at a level 7 and above – A and A* equivalent – increased by 5.2 percentage points, with more than a quarter of all results at this level.

And results at grade 4 – C grade or above jumped – 8.9 per cent, according to figures published by the exam watchdog Ofqual.

The proportion of top grade 9s also increased from 4.5 per cent in 2019 to 6.3 per cent this year. There were similar increases in Wales and Northern Ireland.

In England the proportion of entries awarded:
6.3%
Grade 9 (up from 4.5 per cent in 2019)
25.9%
Grade 7 or above – equivalent to A or above (up from 20.6 per cent)
76%
Grade 4 or above – equivalent to C or above (up from 67.1 per cent)

Aragog thanks for that. Seems a reasonable rise considering some rises were due to the algorithm and they made decision to award highest grade. And also because it's impossible (and would be unfair) to predict which child had a cold, bad nights sleep - relationship break up etc on the day affecting what they can and have achieved.

I don't think they should be published. There's no point. I know you want to speculate about whether one school was more generous than another, but you won't be able to tell that, as year groups can fluctuate significantly. When we looked at secondaries, one of our local ones had done much better than the other that year. Talking to the teachers, it was clear that it just happened to be a particularly strong year group.

I noticed that our local paper struggled to get any statements out of the schools about GCSE results this year, and the ones they did get focussed on individuals who had done particuarly well, rather than the usual "n% of grades were 6 or better" and the like.

Thanks,

I don't know what people think schools should have done.
Randomly selected a handful of kids from each class to be the one who had something go wrong on the day?? It's impossible to predict that.

What we should take from this year is that the kids who actually lose out under normal years are those kids who have a bad exam day, and there is no way to rectify that ordinarily.

Just like the kids who lose out on this years CAG system for gcse and a levels are the ones who has a bad exam day for their mocks.

Mathematically 6.3% is a 40% increase from 4.5%.

Calculated as (6.3-4.5)/4.5 *100 - I presume that’s where the 40% has come from.

I think this is the important factor - in normal years there is the natural moderation of children being ill on the day, missing out a page of the exam, granny dying the night before, falling off their bike on the way to school etc. Teachers were asked to predict what each grade would be in normal circumstances - of course that is going to lead to increased in the numbers getting each grade. If GCSEs weren't so exam based and had elements of course work, these 'natural' moderations would be removed.

@lanthanum

I don't think they should be published. There's no point. I know you want to speculate about whether one school was more generous than another, but you won't be able to tell that, as year groups can fluctuate significantly. When we looked at secondaries, one of our local ones had done much better than the other that year. Talking to the teachers, it was clear that it just happened to be a particularly strong year group.

I noticed that our local paper struggled to get any statements out of the schools about GCSE results this year, and the ones they did get focussed on individuals who had done particuarly well, rather than the usual "n% of grades were 6 or better" and the like.

That's where the other measures help. Progress 8 will tell you how much progress from entry. This is an effective measure as 'bright' cohorts have higher entry levels and tend to end with better grades.

But it measures the progress schools get pupils to make against others.

And it's not so much who did what and certainly wouldn't judge students on grades.

But my experience is that honest schools are a good indication of ethos for future parents making decisions.

I'm really not sure Progress 8 will help this year. My DS's school has definitely marked students strictly on "what they were already capable of" and had evidence for, and not allowed any uplift for progress between March and May/June. Other schools have allowed for some progress, and yet others have been generous.

Unless you're going to use Progress 8 as a guide to guess which schools fell into which category :)

There is no point in publishing this year's results-will be a blip year and not counted in trends.

@RedskyAtnight

I'm really not sure Progress 8 will help this year. My DS's school has definitely marked students strictly on "what they were already capable of" and had evidence for, and not allowed any uplift for progress between March and May/June. Other schools have allowed for some progress, and yet others have been generous.

Unless you're going to use Progress 8 as a guide to guess which schools fell into which category :)

Progress 8 is from entry. If the cohort was similar or even slight,y more able then progress 8 would shoe the results were in line with their usual teaching and learning.

That's my thoughts now on this.

Instead of making the students who've had a less than ideal end to year 11 by focusing on their results and the number etc.
You can use data to show schools as a whole have produced results inline with their general performance. Numbers of 9's actually really don't do this. Not as a complete picture.

And nay school who may have chanced their luck and has a huge progress 8 rise - that won't show on pupils results and numbers etc or make students feel bad. Because let's face it - even if the odd setting has changed their luck that still isn't the students fault.

And yes ds school have been fair and strict. Well certainly ds had no surprises!

A 9 was supposed to be the top 3% of those sitting, so schools shouldn't have been allowed to allocate 9s IMO, only the algorithm.
These results won't be published, schools are under no obligation to do so, and there are lots that have been conservative and kept CAGs within expected range from last three years whose results will only be as spectacular/ropey as usual.

I get exactly what everyone is saying about school inflating their results. My DD got a mixture of 4 and 5s 1x6 and 1x7. I felt these results were fair and in line with her mocks and predicted results.

Having spoken to her friends who attend different schools it seems they were all awarded higher grades than DD even though their mock results were in line or slightly below hers

One friend was really struggling with English and Science and was working at Grade 2/3, but he ended up being awarded a 5 in English and 65 in Science. My DD was working at a grade 3 in English and received a grade 4 and for Science she got 65 in her mocks which was the same grade she received.
There is definitely inconsistency in how different schools allocated grades. I think some schools inflated their results as they assumed they would be moderated down.

DD and her friends seemed to get roughly what they expected with the odd grade 1 higher or lower - the grades seem a pretty true reflection and I think the school didn’t upgrade the students.
All of the other local schools have reported (n the local paper) how fantastic their results have been this year, that they have really high grades and many more students than expected will progress on to sixth form. DD school haven’t said anything in the local paper.
DD school is rated outstanding and usually outperforms the other local schools by a long way (they are rated good or requires improvement). Would be so interesting to compare this year.
My concern is that all the local schools are in a sixth form consortium and there will be students who wouldn’t be there if they had sat the exams.

Grades are higher but there’s a lot of reasons for that. Teaches asked to predict what a student would get on a good day, they can’t predict the students who would misinterpret the question, realise they answered questions from the wrong section too late to change it, or just feel too much pressure on the day. So it’s completely normal for grades to be higher this year.

My son got 9x9’s and 2 x 8’s and he’s always been predicted those 9’s. I have no doubt he could have achieved them, or even 11 x 9’s. It annoys me that people think all kids just got given 9’s. I do find it really annoying some kids got higher than their predicted grades based on that stupid algorithm, mainly private schools. But if they’ve been inflated they won’t be matching top grades in A levels. I tell my son to just focus on what he got and not what others got.

DD's school published there's. They had 40% 7-9s and last year they were 35%. So inline with the national figure.

It bears repeating that the percentage of Grade 9s went up from 4.7 to 6.6% . So the idea that every other kid has one is not reality, the 40% figure banded about is an attempt to convince people they are a lot more common than they actually are.

In fact grade boundaries have varied wildly over the years, when GCSEs started only 10% of grades were A. And when the A star was first introduced the % getting one was half the 2019 "9" percentage. somehow universities and employers have managed to cope with these variations without agonising over whether a 2005 A star was really worth as much as one from 2002.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Certificate_of_Secondary_Education

And I suspect that in the future every kid in the land will have been to a school that was very strict about CAGS but all their friends at different schools had it really easy......