What happens to the kids who now won’t get into 6th form college for Alevels due to the algorithm?

[L00ptheL00p]

Where do they go? They can’t go back to their old schools and Autumn way too early for retakes after all this trauma and a 9 month education gap.

What on earth are they supposed to do?

And @caringcarer, you are right about year 10s and 12s being very badly affected by losing a huge chunk of education in the middle of their courses. It must be frustrating that no-one is talking about this.
But they will. It is just they are dealing with each crisis as it develops. So the results crisis has occurred first. When that dies down they will move onto year 10s and 12s.
I think it is important to remember that how the current year 11s and 13s are treated in this crisis will influence and determine how the year 10s and 12s are treated. So it may be annoying to hear about grade inflation for year 11s and 13s in the media, but if year 11s and 13s are treated unfairly, the chances are the year 10s and 12s will be treated unfairly too when their time comes. Conversely, if year 11s and year 13s are treated fairly, then that fairness will be more likely to applied to the year 10s and 12s too. The precedent will have been set - what type of precedent do you want that to be?
So time for everyone to be magnanimous!

Presumably there will also be those who were due to do retakes this year who may be on the last chance of easily accessing them

I would imagine that those children staying on at their school sixth form will have the benefit of their CAG so that should be ok-it’s just those like my DD who want to go elsewhere who might struggle-though she is holding a place at her school as well, even though she doesn’t want to go there, so has a safety net.
The way these children have been abandoned is absolutely appalling.

@neutralintelligence, if huge grade inflation allowed to occur it just adds an extra level of unfairness. If this year all results artificially high then unfair on previous years students and students in years to come. I don't have a child in year 10, 11, 12 or 13 so no personal bias here. Also if all students just given mostly A's they become meaningless and employers will disregard 2020 results and that does them a huge disservice.

This year's A level grades are already 2.4 higher A* and A than any previous year. The A-E grades are up too. These results will go higher with allowing valid mocks to stand and students who sit exams and get higher grades in October.

Government have always said from March when schools broke up any A level or GCSE students not happy with grades awarded can simply sit them in autumn. This means they have had 5 extra months to revise.

My nephew not happy as awarded B for Maths. He has been working hard over lock down to revise and do every past paper on exam website. He will sit exam in Autumn and expects to get the A. Can't think why students would not have been revising and working over lock down knowing they may need to sit in autumn. I think the more organised students will sit in autumn. I know lots of students who have continued to work over lock down whilst others have not done a thing.

Did you know 2 schools have given every single student A* or A when in previous years they had a normal distribution?

It is very unfortunate but now we hear many schools did not set and record formal mock exams. No totally fair option but allowing every child to sit in autumn fairest option remaining. Taking an extra year is not the end of the world.

@L00ptheL00p

How on earth can they sit exams in September. They left school in March and haven’t looked at the curriculum since. My dc has left that school and needs to start new one- in September.

Same, my son took IGCSE's and due to Covid19 his school closed in January. That is an awfully long time. Mocks were done in December when the curriculum wasn't even complete.

Caring I cannot believe preserving the value of As in other years is your priority here.

My dc was doing 9 GCSEs and told all would be probably fine. Has had a shifty couple of years but data although not what should have been should have been fine for Alevels. Why on earth when she heard nothing from school since March should she have been revising 9 gcse subjects? She doesn’t have a clue what her grades for any will be and didn’t ever know an algorithm could move her down grades in such an unfair way.

Where is she supposed to do this extra year? Her new sixth form doesn’t do GCSEs.

Said dc has been doing prep for Alevels as instructed by college.Simply not possible to revise all her GCSEs on top just incase a Nov retake was needed for any.

On top of that she needs to be focusing on Alevel subjects in Sep not GCSEs retakes. A levels are pretty intensive as it is.

Loop the thing is with awarding CAGs you devalue the grades which causes other issues. It's unfair in a different way, and could lead to students being disadvantaged further down the line when applying for jobs etc.

I don't think any of us realised just how much prior school performance would impact the algorithm. Hopefully because gcse classes are bigger, there will be fewer horror stories.

If she's been doing A level prep and was capable of the grades to get into college then I'd ask for school to speak to them. if she doesn't get in.

I doubt colleges will say anything yet about admissions until they have the information on GCSE grades. Blanket statements from them now could mean they end up with huge cohorts they can't handle. Hard as it is, wait until Thursday and then re evaluate.

Don’t really expect CAGs to be awarded but surely CAGs should be used for admissions.

Many are going to be disadvantaged now and further down the line anyway due to the algorithm adjustment.

Why on earth should my students who were awarded fairly AND in line with our rolling average be downgraded due to the stupidity of other schools.

In most cases it isn't stupidity. There's been a lot of discussion over why the data appears over inflated. The main reason is teachers tend to be optimistic with borderline cases as it's impossible to know who would be the one to get the C instead of the B on the day. The algorithm does this prediction for you using the rank order.

Colleges will hopefully have conversations with schools. Large colleges will want bums on seats so she may be at an advantage there.

I will be forever grateful for my sons college. When they closed the schools a week later we got an email from them.
They said they couldn’t see any child disadvantaged due to all of this. So they were taking away the needs for grades for this years in take.
I am still worried about his results. But is happy knowing that he got on to the course he wanted at the level he wanted.
This is a huge college and it must have taken a lot for them to do that. He was enrolled a few days ago.
But I am still nervous about the results incase he has to do his English and maths.

@L00ptheL00p

Caring I cannot believe preserving the value of As in other years is your priority here.

My dc was doing 9 GCSEs and told all would be probably fine. Has had a shifty couple of years but data although not what should have been should have been fine for Alevels. Why on earth when she heard nothing from school since March should she have been revising 9 gcse subjects? She doesn’t have a clue what her grades for any will be and didn’t ever know an algorithm could move her down grades in such an unfair way.

Where is she supposed to do this extra year? Her new sixth form doesn’t do GCSEs.

Well honey didn't revise because we were told there would be a robust system and CAGs would be sent in.

Everyone expected this to be sorted and where they felt a school weren't reflective on themselves they would be moderated before time.

Not that every teacher who worked out a CAG would have wasted their time because all they'll do is stick ranking into an algorithm. Oh and evening your lowest mark for 3 years was a 2 the computer would decide because nationally people get U and E them this year your bottom students would also get this.

Even if they've actually been assessed at this level for the whole gcse course.

It's easier to ignore this years results in league tables than it is to offer a future to children who have results that are nothing like their actual level.

@Hercwasonaroll

In most cases it isn't stupidity. There's been a lot of discussion over why the data appears over inflated. The main reason is teachers tend to be optimistic with borderline cases as it's impossible to know who would be the one to get the C instead of the B on the day. The algorithm does this prediction for you using the rank order.

Colleges will hopefully have conversations with schools. Large colleges will want bums on seats so she may be at an advantage there.

That's fair enough.

Everyone knows some students will have a bad day.

But teachers and Ofqual cannot know that the student ranked lowest in B will be that student.

And it doesn't account for those who have gone down 2 grades or been given a u purely because the system says someone should fail.

I'm not saying the algorithm is fair, no one da knows, that's the point.

*And it doesn't account for those who have gone down 2 grades or been given a u purely because the system says someone should fail."

These decisions should have been manually checked by an actual human. Luckily they have happened in about 0.5% of cases so while devastating for the students, not huge numbers have been affected.

Pupils may have the opportunity to three years at 6th form, but 6th forms do not get full funding for that final third year! If large numbers of pupils decide to do a third year, my school is likely to go bankrupt. Plus we have absolutely no space to retain a whole cohort for an extra year, so in two years time we'd be utterly unable to accept any new Y12s.

But what will they be doing in that extra year?

My sixth form doesn’t do GCSEs only that Eng/maths access thing. Dd should have the data for an 8 in maths. Was aiming for same in Eng but data woeful so Eng might be an issue. Half an access course for a year would be a complete waste of time. And where would she do the 2x sciences that could well be an issue now if the algorithm downgrades her?

The FE college ds is going to the third year would be year 2 of a level 3 course.

They are doing a 3rd year because they started with a 1 year course. M

They start a 1 year course because they haven't got the grades for a level 3 yet. Usually it's maths or English but sometimes it's also students who didn't get enough 4's across the board but I would think this is (usually!) a low number.

It is clear why there is grade inflation this year (12%?).
It is because when teachers gave their CAGs they could only say what the pupils would get if the exam went well. They could not assume the pupil would mess up, that would not be fair.
But each year a percentage of pupils in the real exam do mess up: maybe they are a bit ill, their pet died, they overslept, they didn't revise the topic in the high-mark essay question, etc etc.
So each year the final exam results will be a percentage lower than teacher predictions.
But the crucial issue that no-one knows in advance of the exams who those pupils will be.
It is just not possible to predict - it could be the top ranked pupil or the borderline pupil or a pupil in the middle of a grade range.

The grade inflation that people are talking about this year is largely not due to a teacher knowing a pupil is only capable of a B but giving them a CAG of A. It is because they gave a CAG of B.
If all teachers give the grade the pupil is actually capable of, overall the grades are higher because account is not taken of the percentage who underperform in the actual exam each year.
It is further crucial that in an exam year, there is a paper to mark so the result reflects the real actual performance. If anyone questions that mark, the paper can be dug out, reviewed, remarked and the pupil, parents and teacher will know the final mark is correct and fair.

As I said, this year there is no paper. No-one knows who the individual pupils are that would underperform from the predicted grade.

The only fair thing to do is the use the predicted grade - or CAG in this case.

Grade inflation is actually not really an issue for the following years ofl pupils who take the exam. Their exam moderation will be based on 2020 and then it is all fair.
12% grade inflation from 2020 onwards has been given undue significance in a year of mass tragedy and a change to normality in every single area of life.

Imagine of Ofqual had approached this from the opposite direction. Image they had said: this year there were no exams so we have no idea which pupils would have underperformed and which would have overperformed. There is no evidence of what exam performance would be for an individual pupil. So the fairest thing to do is use the teachers' predicted grades for these pupils.
...everyone would have been totally OK with that.

@neutralintelligence

Plus the irony that it is compulsory for 16-18 year olds to be in some form of education now. But apprenticeships have been largely cancelled this year apparently. School sixth forms have limited capacity and often give high conditional offers. 16 year olds can't take a gap year, they can't work full-time, they can't travel. Why should they be directed to resit an exam they never sat in the first place and may very well be part-way through appealing and likely to succeed eventually in that appeal since most pupils with have a mock or CAG higher than the downgraded moderated standardised best-guess that they will open on Thursday.

Just to say that I work in FE Apprenticeships and we’re recruiting like mad. We always try to be flexible within reason re prior qualifications and I can see us being as flexible as possible this year. No one wants to turn away anyone with potential.

All sixth forms have to offer English and Maths GCSE retakes. Whether they offer places to student who don't have English and Maths is another matter.

If she doesn't have the grades for Alevel then she's not ready for them. Does she really have no idea what grades she might have got in her GCSEs? Is the school she's at really that dire?

I think you are being a bit melodramatic OP, as you don't have the grades yet and it might not even be an issue.

Really had no idea as data all over the place due to being ill. Ranges from 3s to 8s. School will have factored this however obviously lower scores will have been given this thus making her very vulnerable if adjusted a couple of grades due to algorithm.

I don’t think an algorithm potentially dropping grades due to scores by other children does mean she’s not ready for Alevels. Quite the reverse. Sitting the exams and not getting the grades fair play. Teacher saying what she is capable of and a computer rejecting that to fit in with scores from children in past years unfair and inaccurate as regards Alevel capability.

Please support the petition

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/306773

and get onto your local MP and complain.

I do think maintaining standards and preventing runaway grade inflation is important not only to future years but to past years students. My nephew's school told their students they could choose to not pick up a textbook or could choose to carry on revising and working hard as if not given a grade they believe reflects their ability government has always said they will be given opportunity to sit exam in autumn. He had worked that out for himself anyway. He chose to work throughout lockdown even after A levels were abandoned as he figured any extra work he did in his subjects would be beneficial for uni anyway. He has to decide whether to accept his second choice and get day off to resit Maths back at his old school anyway as he is not happy with B given to him or to withdraw from UCAS and resit year and sit Maths in autumn and do an additional A level in a year. That way he could reapply next year to get his first choice which I think is his preferred option.

It is tough on this years kids but like I said in earlier post i think it will be worse for current year 9, 10 and 12's who missed 5 months from GCSE and A level specification and so far all I have heard is they can avoid poetry in English Language. I think questions will need to be set so kids who do not finish all of specification and have large chunks missed out due to no teaching or very little for 5 months can still answer enough questions.

Scotland's answer is unfair to all kids as nobody will now take the 2020 results seriously. Employers will disregard them when they compete with students from other exam years. So they basically end up with something that is value less. Very unfair on them and they may not realise it yet.

Grade inflation is important. Already some employers do not trust degree results as now over 30 per cent given first class honours so university can attract overseas students who pay more. Just stating when I did first degree under 5 per cent got a first from Russell group uni. In 2007 this same uni had inflated grades to 14 per cent and in 2018 to 29 per cent. When I went to uni less than a third of brightest kids went. Now about half go. Do you really think grade inflation has not taken place? Several HR staff for large employer told me they take first class degree with a pinch of salt and still make applicants take internal recruitment test which has not changed for many years and many who are awarded firsts fail this test. In the past students with lower awards passed this test.

@LynetteScavo

All sixth forms have to offer English and Maths GCSE retakes. Whether they offer places to student who don't have English and Maths is another matter.

If she doesn't have the grades for Alevel then she's not ready for them. Does she really have no idea what grades she might have got in her GCSEs? Is the school she's at really that dire?

I think you are being a bit melodramatic OP, as you don't have the grades yet and it might not even be an issue.

They know their mock results.

They know what level they were working at through centre assessment

They know what they were predicted.

What they don't know is what number they were in the rankings and what that means a computer will allocate them as a gcse.

This is the problem. Children apply for courses based on what's expected of them. It's usually a pretty accurate system.

This year your grade is pot luck.