GCSE predictions in yr 7

[Doggyfeet]

I have just received my sons year 7 progress report.

How accurate are the GCSE predictions? My DS os predicted 3/4 in his subjects. He is very dyslexic and has ASD - I personally believe that with the right support he could do well but worry that he will be written off and only pushed to get what he’s predicted.

The predictions tend to be right on average (as that's how they're chosen) but can be miles out for an individual child - especially one like yours with specific issues. Don't panic OP - he has loads of time to make progress! Is he receiving good support?

Are they predictions or targets?

if targets, they will be based on his KS2 SATs results.

If predictions, they will be pretty much random guess in Year 7 (even in Year 10 my DS's predictions varied wildly from report to report).

He’s receiving quite a lot of support but possibly not the kind that’s going to help him progress - he’s having an Ed psych assessment soon so we can hopefully get him the right support.

Redsky, they are targets - assume they are based on SATS and CATS.

Are they year 7 or Year 11 targets?

They’re more likely to be wrong than right.

If predicted 3/4s, all that’s telling you is he didn’t do particularly well in his SATs. Which you already know.

5 years is a long time. Keep pushing to get the right support.

A bit taken aback by this - we've not had a progress report and how on earth can any school predict a GCSE results at age 11! I assume this was just for English and Maths rather than the subjects they have only just had half a term in starting from scratch?!

Probably based on KS2 SATs results, my own child smashed those "targets" as he had amazing teachers who inspired, pushed and encouraged him over a 5 year period. They built his confidence in himself to believe he could achieve better than predicted.

Your son is only in year 7, like noble says, 5 years is a long time. This is a marathon not a sprint.

As everyone has said prob based on how he did in his Sats.

But a 4 is a C (low) in old money. It’s still an achievement to get this grade.

All they would mean is that a typical child with your child's KS2 entry would be most likely to achieve a certain grade.

It's fairly meaningless on an individual level as 5 years is a long time.

Every child counts under p8 so it's in the school's interest to help all children achieve their potential, not the minimum.

I wouldn't worry about him if he is working hard and listening to feedback from teachers.

SJane48S they use the SATS and CATs to make targets for all subjects. For example DSs art target is 4 (based in his Maths results) and Drama target is 3( based in his English results).

I do feel a bit better and need to remind myself that his dyslexia is a huge hurdle for him and with the right help he can exceed those expectations. Also as many of you have mentioned 5 years is a long time for things to change.

LolaSmiles the schools progress 8 score was -0.42 last time, doesn’t inspire me with confidence!

Absolutely he can exceed them (and indeed wanting to proving his teachers wrong might spur him on!). They’ve only just started secondary so it all seems incredibly premature and a bit unnecessary!

Thanks for the info - DD hasn’t had this yet (so perhaps not all schools are doing this), rather hope she doesn’t!

They are utterly ridiculous and meaningless in most cases. (Teacher of 30 years here). I have Y7s who have targets of 8/9 who don't appear to be particularly outstanding and I have bright Y7s who have targets of a 3/4. They are based on how the pupil did in English and Maths at KS2 SATs. They frankly tell me nothing about how this child will do in History when they are 16. I think they are pointless and don't teach based on them. I would push every pupil to do their best.

They are a waste of time. My eldest was predicted a 3 in English and got 1 mark off a 7! They are predicting grades based on SATS. My second son is year 9 and literally got his predictions today, I just ignore them😂.

Is it a target or a prediction? Either way they will assume the child works constantly to the same standard for the next 5 years so as someone up thread said, more likely to be wrong than right.

I wouldn't place a lot of emphasis on the P8 score either... your child is still years off exams and a lot can happen in that time. That P8 score is relevant for last year's cohort.

We laughed this time last year when we got DD’s first prediction. How can they predict something for a child they only know for 8 weeks? Also, SATS doesn’t cover MFL or geography or proper science.

One year on and the numbers are already different. On top of that DD is just in the process of ADD/ASD and process dyslexia assessment so they may change again.