Selective grammar uses 'predicted grade' for 6th form entry criteria, but school doesn't provide them.

[fartherTed]

Our school gives "minimum target grades" (MTG) rather than predicted grade for GCSE. I'm not sure of the exact definition, but in practical terms it means that 8 is the maximum they would ever give as a minimum target, even though they know some of those with a MTG of 8 are fully capable of getting a 9 if they work consistently hard and have a good day.

DS has lots of MTGs of 8, and is highly likely to get several 9s, as he did in his mocks. He wants to apply to a super-selective sixth form that uses "predicted grade" as an entry criteria. I'm amazed they're allowed to use something so subjective, and I'm wondering what they will do in our case - will they just take the MTG as the predicted grade or are they likely to put the MTGs into context, e.g. by also looking at the Mock results?

Our Grammars use predicted grade to offer places but you do have to actually achieve them! Speak to the Grammar, do they not get their mock results? Mocks should be done before Christmas?

There is a difference between target and prediction. The reference form his current school have to complete will ask the school to provide predictions which they will have. They may not pass to parents though.

Just apply. Firstly, if your DS gets 8s that is going to be good enough. Secondly, I presume the grammar will want confirmation of the actual grades on GCSE results day and will only accept your DS if his grades are up to their standard. (I'm guessing they'll want 7s in his A Level subjects and minimum of 6s in everything else).

@avocadochocolate if it's a super selective then the majority applying will be getting all 8s and 9s.
OP, if you're worried contact the school in question. I suspect what others have said is true and that the school will have predictions but don't share them with you.
We interview applicants for our sixth form and discuss what options they are thinking of making (and the grades required to continue/start vary from subject to subject). I'm a sixth form tutor at my school and have several new entrants in my group who are all loving it.
My own HoD doesn't like to predict 9s at GCSE so I'm sure the predictions will be manageable.
PPs are right of course we admit on results not predictions so places get confirmed on results day.
Sorry for jumbled nature of my writing the not quite two year old decided sleep was for the weak this morning!

@GrammarTeacher . My DD was offered a place at a super selective grammar last year. The school was happy with 7s, although yes I'm sure it's true that most of the kids got 8s and 9s.

The school told us in the open day what the entry requirements were.

Fair enough. Obviously all schools are different which is why it's best to speak to the school.

Offers are made based on a ranking of highest predicted grade across 8 subjects. I've heard they usually all go to students who are predicted 9s and 8s across the board. But, once they have an offer, so long as they achieve 7 in the subjects to be studied, and an average higher than 6.625, the offer will be honoured.

That means there could easily be students on the waiting list whose predicted/target grades are realistic/modest but who actually achieve a lot better than those who get the places.

It seems very subjective to me because predicted grades can't be standardised. I will talk to the school about how they will assess the MTG, but I'm surprised their policy hasn't been referred to the schools adjudicator for scrutiny.

An MTG is not the same as a prediction. Using predicted grades to decide who to make an offer to is totally standard, not just in super-selectives. I’m a head of Sixth Form and we use them. I’ve not come across a single school this year that only provides us with MTGs. If they had then their reference would have been totally useless as an MTG only really tells you about that child’s performance aged 11. The only thing that really affects whether someone is admitted or not is their predicted grades. They are subjective but the best thing we have to go on before results come out in August. Our HOY for year 11 sends out predicted grades to other Sixth Forms for our students too, they all ask for them.
We use MTGs in school as targets but they aren’t what goes on a Sixth Form reference. Are you 100% sure that your son’s school won’t be sending out predicted grades. If they aren’t then it really is them that you should be taking issue with.

Sorry, I meant made an offer not admitted. Obviously admission is ultimately down to who gets the grades on results day.

an MTG only really tells you about that child’s performance aged 11

No, ours are revised every year based on the students' most recent performance.

Ours get revised too but in our school they can only ever go up not down. So I have no way of knowing if a child with an MTG of 8 is someone who is highly likely to get that 8 or someone who is miles away from ever achieving it. If your school’s MTGs are shifted up and down then I suppose they are more like a predicted grade than a target.