Can a pupil recover from a rubbish Y9 to get high GCSE grades?

[cingolimama]

DD has had a rugged year and a bit with serious health problems. She is, thankfully, slowly and steadily improving and she should be pretty fully recovered by the autumn. Of course, her health is the most important thing and I'm very grateful for her recovery ... but...

There were necessary absences (nothing too bad - she still managed 92%) and there were times she struggled to focus and was exhausted a lot. The school were fantastically supportive, allowed her to drop two subjects and let her go to the quiet room whenever she needed.
Any normal pressure/expectation from school or from her parents was eased off to a considerable degree. The idea was just to get her through the school year.

Nevertheless, her summer report came as a bit of a shock - mostly 4s and high 3s, with a 6 in Music. DD is smart and ambitious and wants to go to a top university to study history or music (this could change, I know). Before this year I thought it was a pretty realistic plan. But I worry how she will recover academically from this year and go on to get a high grade in GCSEs.

I've looked at various charts and "flight paths" and frankly I found them demoralising. So I'm turning to MN - any advice or guidance would be hugely appreciated.

I'm only a parent, but I would say yes she can recover giving the extenuating circumstances. A clever child who had a bad year would be way more able to climb grades than a less academic child already pushing themselves.

Is it a 2 year or a 3 year GCSE course (or some of each)?

If some GCSE teaching has been missed then when she is better going over the revision guides or online resources to make sure she understands the content would be good.

Especially I would think for maths, science and any English poems.

If health is going to be ongoing I'd personally focus on potential A level subjects and passes in others - enough to get to required 6th form.

My DD had a rubbish year 9 - she was on crutches since the beginning of the spring term & the heatwave last summer almost finished her off. She struggled to focus because she was exhausted & anxious about her health problems.

She’s just coming to the end of year 10 now. She had an op on her knee last September, so was back at school for two weeks and then off recuperating until after half term. She has put a lot of effort into catching up on the things she missed, and now that she doesn’t have the distraction of her knee (apart from ongoing physio) is far more focused on her school work. She’s in the middle of her end of year exams at the moment so we haven’t had reports yet, but certainly at Easter she had managed to pull herself up from the end of year 9.

It’s not been easy, but I think that because she wanted to do it then she is achieving again now. The school has helped her, although the cynic in me thinks that since she got level 6s in her Sats they were panicking about their progress 8 scores when they saw how she was doing last summer!

Good luck to her, I hope she makes a full recovery. It’s so hard, this time last year DD was counting down the days until she didn’t have to drag herself around school any more.

As a teacher I’d expect a pupil to go up roughly 2 grades between year 9 and 11 if they’re putting the work in - it’s completely possible to go up more if circumstances change for pupils (and likewise go down).

So, if she’s got a good basis then yes, top grades possible. If she can’t make it up / has setbacks you’re probably looking at 5/6’s (which are still good grades, remember).

It's a 2 year course Y10 and Y11. Unfortunately because uni offers are based on predicted grades, they do look closely at GCSEs (at least that's my understanding).

Don'tletme - thank you for your kind words and sympathy. Best of luck to your DD too.

Pottering, when you say they are "good grades", what do you mean? This is a serious question, not being arsey.

For instance, 5/6 isn't good enough to get into a top college, at least around here.

You know, sometimes shit happens and another pathway will open up.
My DS is very bright but has terrible communication problems caused by anxiety, both verbal and written communication are affected (he can only answer if he's certain he's correct, which makes humanities very difficult). He's autistic btw.

He's gone from us wondering if a boy as able as him might be Oxbridge material to Russell group to a university to accepting that he won't get scores high enough for any uni and probably wouldn't manage independent study yet anyway. I think he'll have to seek qualifications when he's older and through teen issues, probably do open university, or work in a way which doesn't make the most of his talents. And it's ok.

Health is the only thing that is fundamentally important; anything else isn't time limited.

I think if it's a 2 year course then you should be fine.

Remember, she can always take a gap year and apply after A level results, or explain GCSE grades in her personal statement.

'Good grades' is all in the eye of the beholder I think. I'd bite your hand off for my y9 to end up with 5s and 6s. But they would be disappointing for someone aiming for 7s (old As) or better.

You are probably needing 6+ to do A levels but some more ambitious schools may ask for higher to make their end results look better.

She's Y9, so there's year 10 and most of year 11 before actually having to sit GCSE's which is good.

If your dc is recovered enough, could you speak to school before the end of the summer term about getting a program of stuff she can be doing over the summer break to catch up a little. What was her original flight path allocated before her illness started ? If she was "smart" (as in achieving level 5/6 at KS2) , then surely there's every chance that it's just the volume of work she needs to cover between now and summer 2021 that is the issue so making use of summer hols etc could certainly help her achieve catching up.

Schools usually pull out all the stops to maximise Y11 pupils results so near the time there will be additional sessions after school etc and if she's up to full health by then she can take full advantage to work back up to her full potential.

My dc mentioned that several bright kids pissed about/coasted in years 7- 9 but got their act together when exams started looming and worked much harder in 10 & 11 so are now been predicted 7's, 8's and even the odd 9. To be honest, dc was a bit peeved that they have worked consistently hard over years 9-11 and are predicted the same range of grades as the people who just worked hard for the last couple of years.

I think that these were genuinely clever kids who finally knuckled down to work, covered the syllabus in enough depth, practiced lost of past papers and should get results that reflect their actual underlying ability.If your daughter can do the same I see no reason why she can't massively improve her grades providing she has the underlying academic ability to be confident with the higher level parts of the syllabus and the stamina to work to cover the full syllabus content and retain it at least long enough to cover the duration of the exams period.

For music degree courses even the top places bar Oxbridge are going to be far more interested in whether she has Grade 8 practical/theory and an A in A level music than her GCSE grades.

Cat, thanks for the suggestion. I'd thought of her doing a bit of work over the summer, but am a bit torn about this. She needs some fun, some rest and sitting about in the sunshine. But it should be possible to fit an hour in the morning, without it messing with her holiday vibe, yes? I'm going to speak to the school about this.

Comefrom, that's very encouraging! thank you.

Those are roughly the grades my DS (who has done minimum work over the last 2 years) is getting in Y10, so I certainly hope so!!

We've seen his (school assessed so no idea how accurate they are) levels increase dramatically if he starts actually working, so I imagine your DC will easily be able to catch up.

Oxbridge won’t take anyone on with low GCSE grades even if you do study music or art. To even suggest that is ridiculous.

Is your dd in all the top sets for her GCSEs? If so it’s very doable with regular private tuition. I had issues in year 9, then with the help of tuition and following the recommended study plan at school (2 hours of revision / study time on top of homework) from year 10, I got all A*-Bs. Still not enough to get me onto certain courses/universities but considered good enough for most.

even the top places bar Oxbridge

That is what I said.

The elite music conservatories often ask for very low grades.

I just entered GCSE Grades of 1 x 7 (Music)
3 x 6 (English Lang, Lit & History)
and the rest Grade 5 plus A levels of AAB (Music, History & English) into Birmingham Uni offer predictor calculator and it came up with Likely (depending on audition/interview)

Birmingham has always been known to have an exellent reputation for Music courses (sorry history isn't an area I know much about)

cingolimama - good grades in that a 5 or above is what is deemed a good grade by the govt and the league tables! When people talk about needing a “good pass” they mean a 5+. At the minute it’s 4+ but the govt have already said that will change.

I'm a teacher and it absolutely is possible. For those unwilling to work it is a much bigger challenge because they have to completely change their mindset. For those who have been ill, or other circumstances against them, a difficult year 9 should be straight forward to recover from.

I've got a ds in Year 10 at the moment and locally the requirements to do A levels range from

5 x Grade 6 & 3 x Grdae 5 and a 7 if doing maths/science (8 for FM) - Private selectice school

5 x Grade 6 & 3 x Grade 5 including Grade 6 in any arts/humanities subject taken at A level & 7 in maths/science subjects (high school 6th form

3 x Grade 5 & 2 Grade 4 (with a Grade 6 if studying maths/science (local college)

Re the "fitting an hour in the morning".

My dc spend, in total, 1hr and 20 mins a day on the journey to/from school. During the school holidays they have "saved" this time and hence if I was in your position I'd add another 10 mins on giving 1.5 hours.

Some "school" time is spent in form time/assembly/PE/breaks/lunch/walking between classrooms. Actual GCSE subject lesson time is probably about 200 minutes a day.

1.5 hours = 90 minutes. If achievable, this is 45% of the average learning time of a school day. Imagine what could be achieved with that much over 6 weeks. Although possibly not do-able if you are going away on holiday.

The rest of the time would be all rest & recreation so all good and the psychological/confidence boost of starting back in September having kept things ticking over/caught up a little could be good news for overall health.

I sound like a slave driver but if your dd is likely to remain slightly below par health-wise for the next 6 months then little and often might be better than total down-time for 6 weeks followed by a shock to the system in September with the travel to/from school + lessons + homework combination.

If had suggested to DD a year ago that she “just” do 1.5 hours of school work a day once she broke up for summer, I am almost certain that the breakdown we worked so hard to avoid would have happened. Don’t underestimate the mental and physical exhaustion she will be feeling just through going to school every day. My DD needed a good couple of weeks at the beginning of the summer holidays to recover - we couldn’t even manage a whole day out at that point.

Her health is far more important at this stage and she’ll be in a much better position come September if she’s been given the chance to recover without worrying about school work.

100% they can. Some of my students last year went from grade 3 in their Dec Y11 mocks to grade 8 and even 9 in the summer results.

Yes of course she can improve a lot! If she's naturally bright and willing to work hard to catch up then 7 or higher perfectly achievable.

Don't worry about universities - most, even RUssell group, don't care that much about GCSEs. A levels are what they're interested in.

Sabine that's very interesting (as well as encouraging!). At a teacher, what would you say happened to those students who made a dramatic leap?

Titchy, I don't think that's true, as students don't sit AS exams anymore. Yes, universities look at predicted grades, but they also look at GCSEs because they are the most recent indicators of ability and work ethic. It's not the whole picture, but it's certainly a factor, and if you don't do well at GCSEs, then it does limit the kind of university you can apply to, doesn't it?

Of course, I'd love to be wrong about this!