Secondary school waiting lists - when is there likely to be most movement?

[Avala2019]

DS is starting year 7 in September at his 4th choice secondary. He is on the waiting list for two other schools who have very small catchment areas. We are thinking of moving house into the catchment area of our first choice school but can't decide when to do it, i.e. whether to move now or next year. In terms of movement on the waiting list, I would have though there would be some movement in September when kids fail to turn up on day 1, possibly because they went private but held onto the state school place until the last minute. A friend said there is more movement around year 8 although I have no idea if this is true. Does anyone know when the best time to move would be or if it is totally unpredictable.

You don't say whereabouts in the country you are. London (& other big cities, I think) very different from smaller towns and rural areas.

We are in North London. Very densely populated.

Regardless of when a place is most likely to come up, surely it would be better to mive sooner rather than later to give yourself maximum chance of a place. Plus the longer DC spends at their allocated school, the harder it will get for them to move.

I agre with PP that this will be area dependent. Round here if folks want to go private/grammar, they will have decided by now. It would be unusual for spaces to appear on the first day of Year 7, if anything they are quickly grabbed by people moving into the area over the summer.

In our area places always come up in early September due to the number of families that take up a private place but don't bother to give up their state place. Nobody can do anything about it until they don't turn up on the first day of term. Then there is a domino effect through other schools as people shift around (local uniform shop advise keeping tags on uniform for a while so it can be swapped if necessary ).

How high up the list is he?

I'm N London too @Avala2019. In previous years DD would be near the top of the waiting list for our 1st preference school by now, but not this year.

It's impossible to second guess how much movement there may be, but anecdotally yes I hear that there are always kids who just don't show up in September and there's movement then, but at most surely it can only be maybe 10 places that would come up that way, so unless your DC is high on the list it's still a long shot.

If you've decided to move, do it sooner rather than later; as PP said the longer you leave it the harder it is to switch schools. If you don't really want to move and are prepared to wait, you may get lucky but will probably have to hold your nerve.

Yes there was quite a lot of movement in our neck of the woods (west London) in early Sept.

Will moving house work for schools you have already applied for? I have been led to believe ( told by a N London admissions authority) that your original address will be used for distance in that case but correspondence will be sent to the new address.

I’m in south London . DS was at number 27 for his 1st choice in March, moved a little then up to 17 by end of summer term. At the end of the summer holidays he was at number 2 and got a place on the 2nd day of term. So things can move quite a bit I’ve over the summer, in our case possibly because some kids dropped out in favour of a private school, and maybe some decided the commute to that particular school wasn’t worth it.

Depends where. We have hardly any movement at all. (we are v oversubscribed and over PAN in all years).

Zinnia, where in North London are you? I have a feeling that there won't be much movement, a) because this is a bumper year and everywhere seems massively oversubscribed and ii) the school in question is very popular, lots of people move to get into catchment, plus half the places went to siblings, plus there is apparently a number of appeals outstanding for kids with statements and so if any places do come up then they will go to those kids first. I would be delighted if 10 places came up but I think it very unlikely. Just hard to get motivated to move if we think it unlikely that DS will get a place. We may, in fact, never get a place!

You can definitely change your address after offer day and the school/LA will use your new address. I think they only insist you using you previous/existing address if you change address between the cut off point of 12 December in the year you apply and offer day in March. After that they can update the address and your position goes up or down depending on proximity of new address to the school.

ASauvingonADay, whereabouts are you? Same sort of situation here. All outstanding schools massively oversubscribed and go over PAN.

This year is seeing very little movement across selective and non-selective schools in North London. Anecdotally I'm also hearing that some selective independents have offered to candidates who wouldn't normally get in - the implication being that fewer serious candidates sat private schools this year.

It sounds like everyone is sitting tight - is it the Brexit effect? North London depends on a) the City and b) import/export markets. Not a lot of confidence there.

Do you want to share which school you've got? Most schools in N London are good so it may work out well in any case.

Not much to add aside from the fact very few north london schools are bad. If you’re in the waiting lists for schools like APS but got Heartlands than I wouldn’t bother and just take heartlands. A bit different if you got GCA or somewhere like that.

I thought I wasn’t being told the truth about the change of address issue. It was years ago now and linked to another admissions query so didn’t affect me directly so I didn’t push it.

I’d move as soon as possible then! You’ll keep hold of the school place you were allocated and might become first on the waiting list for your preferred school.

Thanks all. There is no way that we will get in unless we move! We are about 2 miles away and 226 on the waiting list!!

Yeah have to say @Avala2019 that does sound like a bit of a long-shot! Is your 2nd pref school any more likely?

In any of the last 3 years, DD would have got into our 1st preference comfortably by September but not looking great this year. Waiting list seems to have come to a juddering halt!

Interesting what you say @FanDabbyFloozy about the independent sector - I've just heard of a couple of kids near us getting places on the waiting lists at Hampstead private schools, but they have been v near the top since March.

Certainly the Head at the (state) school we'd like has said they got a lot of 1st preferences this year, which also does not bode well for us

@Avala2019 I think I know which state school you're talking about - AFAIK it's quite well-regraded. The progress scores for high prior attainers are fantastic, and the overall progress is consistently above average. Apologies if I'm barking up the wrong tree here, but I'm not sure in your position I'd throw it over for a so-so private school in the centre of town (not going to try to guess which one that is though!).

If I were in your position I think I'd start my DC at the state and keep options open if you're not happy in Y7. I'd also look at schools in neighbouring boroughs (you may well already be doing this of course) as anecdotally, as you said at the start of this thread, you always hear of places opening up down the line.

If you want to move house anyway of course then going to one of the two v v popular schools (again, I'm guessing here that they were your 1st & 2nd prefs) would make sense, but you would pay a premium for a property that close to either.

DD got into London grammar from waiting list 2 years ago - 25th on 1 March, offered in July, movement of around 10 in March, 5 in April, 5 in May/June combined and then 5 around open days in July and further 5 to 10 end August/first week September when children didn't turn up as gone private or parents gave notice at very last minute going elsewhere. Rest of year 7 very little movement 1 or 2 in whole year. So I would say apply now.

Comprehensive maybe different but still think likely to be more movement now than in year 8 and if there is masses of movement in year 8 would be wondering why. We moved on where on list for comprehensive pre September and it moved about one place per week, outstanding rated comp., around 180 per year.

Might be worth phoning admissions and asking them - sometimes you get someone helpful who will give a guide. Though obviously no guarantees. Do watch were you move to as well that its close enough - we lived very close to a outstanding primary and could never get into it.

Where will you be on the list if you move? Is it really worth moving?