GSCEs and A level grades

[ClarasZoo]

I have a year 11 son. I was wondering what people's experience of GCSE grades and A levels is. I know that this is a huge generalisation and kids with a 5 can get an A* and kids with a 9 can get a E but as a general rule can people post their results. I will start with a relative as an example.
Child took Chem, Maths and Biology at A level after getting As for all three at GCSE. Got A, A* A. The A was in Biology.
I am interested in more realistic scenarios as this child was obviously very clever. For example, if your child got 7/B what did they get at A level?
Thank you!

I think the very general rule of thumb is one grade less than at GCSE.

Dd got two grades lower for the two subjects she did at both GCSE (A star) and AL (B), and an A in the new subject.

Ds needs one grade higher for one subject, one lower for a second, and a B for the third not taken before. We will see....

There is a whole paper with lots of graphs on how well people do at A level based on what they got for the GCSE (based on the old letter grades). I have had a quick search but can't find the right keywords to find it right now. I expect @noblegiraffe will have it at her fingertips.

However, remember that broadly speaking people won't attempt the A level unless they get at least a B/6 at GCSE. And then at A level grades go from A* to E, &U...

https://dera.ioe.ac.uk/4112/7/Targets-Alevelvalue-addedmeasures(final)_Redacted.pdf

OP in most sixth forms pupils with a grade 5 won't be able to take an A level in that subject. Unless there are extenuating circumstances, such as illness in Y11 which affected their grades, it is very unlikely that a student with a 5/C at GCSE will obtain an A* at A level.
dd had Bs and Cs at GCSE. A level grades were in the range B to D which fits titchy's suggestion of the grade lower, although all the subjects were new ones that she hadn't studied at GCSE.

Do you realise that a grade 7 = grade A under the old system, as grades 7, 8 & 9 are equivalent to A & A*? The first students to sit English & maths under the new system won't have any A level results yet, as they will sit their A levels this summer. The full cohort will sit their A levels in 2020. The old and new style GCSEs are very different, as are the old and new style A levels. This may make your comparison quite tricky.

My seven eldest DC have all achieved grades at A Level which could have been expected from their GCSEs and the eighth is predicted A Level grades which completely accord with her GCSE performance last year.

Stickerrocks I think you're overstating the case. There's a clear correlation between performance at GCSE and A Level, assuming no special circumstances.

I don't think there's any rule of thumb. This for example doesn't make sense:

I think the very general rule of thumb is one grade less than at GCSE

if that were the case nobody would ever get a A* at A level.

If you do the subjects you were best at at GCSE for A level you should get good grades.

A lot of people will do better at A level than they did at GCSE because they've got rid of subjects that they are not so good at, or which don't interest them or because they grow up a bit and put more effort in. I didn't do that well in my GCSEs compared with my cohort at school but I got all As at A level (I did get As at GCSE in the subjects I did for A level (2 of them, the 3rd subject I hadn't done for GCSE).

The paper I mentioned upthread, that I still haven't been able to find, showed the grades achieved for a subject based on incoming GCSE grades. As a bar chart, percentaged.

So e.g. (made up):
French. Incoming A -> A level U 5%, E 15%, D 15% C 25%, B 25% A, 10%, A 5%
Incoming B -> A level U 10%, E 20% D 40% C 15% B 10% A 3% A* 2%

It was very interesting. I will keep trying to find it.

www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/Images/153531-progression-from-gcse-to-as-and-a-level-2010-.pdf

This isn't the one I was thinking about, but quite relevant. Page 17->

I think this could have been it, page 18->

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/183942/DFE-RR195.pdf

I don't think there's any rule of thumb. This for example doesn't make sense: I think the very general rule of thumb is one grade less than at GCSE

Do you understand what is meant by the phrase 'rule of thumb'? It means usually. Not each and every time. A stars at A level are very rare in the whole (that means there are some exceptions) - and usually gained by those with the very highest A stars at GCSE, not those who only just scraped an A star. Clearly, as it is impossible to get higher than an A star at GCSE.

If a certain (highish) score is attained in the A at GCSE then an A will be predicted for A Level at our school. It's about the specific subject not how a student scored in other subjects.

Well it's obvious that there is a link, as you are most likely to take your strongest GCSE subjects at A level. For example, DD's college gets around 50% of students achieving grade A+ for A level maths because you can only take it with at least grade 7 GCSE.

However, the students taking their A levels this summer took GCSEs containing a large element of coursework, whereas their A levels will predominantly be tested by final exam. Those students who received a string of As and A*s because they were "supported" through their course work and tutored within an inch of their life may find a final exam based system more challenging.

However, the students taking their A levels this summer took GCSEs containing a large element of coursework,

Eh? No they didn't.

the students taking their A levels this summer took GCSEs containing a large element of coursework

No they didn’t. No course work at all.

From 20 plus years teaching music A level and GCSE I would say a GCSE grade 9 student could expect to get anything from A*-B or C on a very bad day, a grade 8 gcse student between A-C or D on a very bad day, a gcse grade 7 student B-D or E on a very bad day. Students who get 6 or below for GCSE music would generally really struggle to get above a C/D grade at A level

I may have used the wrong terminology. Controlled assessments rather than course work.

I may have used the wrong terminology. Controlled assessments rather than course work.
Again - incorrect. Controlled assessments went four or five years ago.

Stickerrocks plenty of students who got A* at GCSE in the days of coursework did so with no input from anywhere else and with no tutoring at all. You know, not everyone cheats. Some DC are genuinely clever. For that reason, there's a clear correlation between GCSE and A Level performance for those DC.

Could you please tell my nephews then that they wasted their time on controlled assessments for their science, geography and history GCSEs then in 2017 as they apparently didn't exist.

Similarly I am not denying that there is a strong correlation, that is stating the obvious, but the new and old style GCSEs are very different from each other and until the first year of students to take the new style GSCEs in subjects beyond take their A levels, you simply cannot tell extrapolate historic results.

Yes you can Stickerrocks. There have been a number of changes to exam specs over the years that my DC have taken their exams (2006 to 2018 and continuing) yet the correlation has been completely consistent. You're making too much of the most recent changes, possibly because your DD was in that year group which took the new numbered exams so that's what you're familiar with. As I said above, DD4 took her GCSEs in 2018 and has taken A Level mocks and her predictions for the linear A Levels (which teachers are now more familiar with) are entirely in line with what I'd expect from the GCSEs.

That last one is the one I would have posted, Teen :)

I think that things will be different in the future with the loss of AS levels. Previously students mostly took 4 AS levels then ditched their weakest subject and they had the option to resit AS modules where they had performed poorly.

Now if it turns out they’re crap at a subject, they’re more likely to just have to keep on trucking with it, resulting in potentially lower grades.

Also, logic would suggest that there would be an even stronger correlation between the new numbered GCSEs (linear, harder) and the new linear A Levels than between the old GCSEs and the new A Levels, not a weaker one.

For science I assume you mean the lab work? That's still part of current GCSE specs. For example edexcel Chemistry GCSE:

The content includes eight mandatory core practicals, indicated as an entire specification point in italics.
Students must carry out all eight of the mandatory core practicals listed below.
Core practical:
2.11 Investigate the composition of inks using simple distillation and paper chromatography
3.6 Investigate the change in pH on adding powdered calcium hydroxide or calcium oxide to a fixed volume of dilute hydrochloric acid
3.17 Investigate the preparation of pure, dry hydrated copper sulfate crystals starting from copper oxide including the use of a water bath
3.31 Investigate the electrolysis of copper sulfate solution with inert electrodes and copper electrodes
5.9C Carry out an accurate acid-alkali titration, using burette, pipette and a suitable indicator
Investigate the effects of changing the conditions of a reaction on the rates of chemical reactions by:
a measuringtheproductionofagas(inthereactionbetweenhydrochloricacid and marble chips)
b observingacolourchange(inthereactionbetweensodiumthiosulfateand hydrochloric acid)
9.6C Identify the ions in unknown salts, using the tests for the specified cations and anions in 9.2C, 9.3C, 9.4C, 9.5C
9.28C Investigate the temperature rise produced in a known mass of water by the combustion of the alcohols ethanol, propanol, butanol and pentanol

Likewise Geog still has fieldwork which is again what I assume you are referring to. Eg:

Geographical Investigations: Fieldwork and UK Challenges.
Candidates are required to complete two geographical investigations involving fieldwork and research, related to one physical topic and one human topic.
7A: Investigating physical environments:
● river landscapes
● coastal landscapes
7B: Investigating human landscapes:
● changing city environments
● changing rural environments

These aren't controlled assessments but practical assessments undertaken in exam conditions. Same as four years ago when my 20 year old too GCSEs.