Flight paths in secondary are nonsense and demotivating for pupils SAY OFSTED

[noblegiraffe]

Ofsted finally saying what I’ve been banging on about for years. Flight paths are bollocks and schools shouldn’t be producing them.

So if your school does, hopefully Ofsted not being keen might make them reconsider!

Ooh how many mathematicians do you know to know that most would do something monumentally stupid and ignore sample size?

Several who would explore the effects of sample sizes across different contexts.

Several who would explore the effects of sample sizes across different contexts.

You keep posting meaningless drivel with such confidence.

Please do ask these mathematicians that you know whether a method for applying grade boundaries to a cohort of thousands tested thoroughly on the full syllabus can be meaningfully copied and applied to a class of 30 on a tiny snapshot of the curriculum, years before they are due to sit the real exam. See what they say.

The cap is effectively applied across the board as it results in a lower actual probability of getting a high grade

No, you are applying cohort statistics to individuals.

You, noble, still haven't said what grading system you think would be preferable. I think you just want to hold absolute power over what assessment information and your interpretation of it is shared with parents, students and even your SLT and the government. You want to self govern, self assess and make unquestioned judgements concerning your student's attainment and progress. And then taunt parents with any snippet of information that suggests OSTED might just let teachers get on with it and not inspect very much of their teaching practices.

Then you apply faux concern to a worried parent who doesn't fully understand her child's targets on their progress report. Which in fact is secret glee because the example serves your political and professional views.

Your last post, cool is despicable.

No, you are applying cohort statistics to individuals.

The cohort results actually filter down and affect an individual's chances of achieving a particular result. Even if the adjustment is very small on an individual level it will make a difference and if that difference is on a boundary there will be a tangible effect.

Your last post, cool is despicable

I don't put any store in your value judgements, noble. Apart from finding it interesting that that comment is one that particularly riles you. Perhaps it hit a nerve? Do you pride yourself in being particularly compassionate towards parents?

faux concern
Secret glee
Goady much?
You're being quite unpleasant cool

Anyway noble as another experienced, skilled, educated professional, I agree with what you've said on this thread.
We've all always known what crap current attainment grades based on flight paths are.
I'd like to say good riddance but I suspect my SLT will be hanging on a bit longer regardless.

It's a shame your thread seems to be being "me-railed" by someone with a bee in their bonnet, noble.

As a parent I'm interested to see this discussed. Like several other posters much earlier in the thread, I have a child with SEN (dyslexia) and one of my ongoing worries is that if he gets labelled in secondary as "headed for 5 grade 4s" he'll genuinely believe that's all he's capable of and get utterly demoralised (which is quite a real worry as he's been allocated a place at a school which is missing the national average for GCSEs by a long, long way - frankly, he's drawn the short straw, and there's no way round it, it's a pretty shit school).

Have you got any practical suggestions on how to keep a child motivated when the school is probably going to tell them they're a bit shit and destined for failure?

One of the problems, as I see it, is that schools are judged on how many students make expected or better than expected progress.

Those judgements are imposed by government and then used by LAs and OFSTED. So unless this announcement by Ofsted means that no one is going to now judge schools based on outcomes, expected progress how else will it be measured?

Gov judges progress based on KS2 SATS and with so much at stake you can see why schools are keen to closely watch students and attempt to track progress.

I wish someone on here would provide an alternative, rather than teacher's judgement, because that isn't measurable or consistent is it? It will also be subjective.

The gov won't be compiling league tables based on progress measured against Mrs Miggin's opinion of how Sophie is doing in English will they?

No, exactly that... the govt will be measuring hwr progress from KS2 to GCSE. The interim data to arriev there is what we are (largely discussing) which is what Ofsted said they will not be looking at.

Schools, I guess are free to do the interevening bit how they like : hopefully it will become less backbreaking and more sensible if/when Ofsted stop looking at it.

This thread still droning along with pointless and diversionary argument interspersed with personal attacks, I see.

I am hoping tnat has stopped : gone quiet for a while...

fermats, honestly, I sympathise. But those grades will in all likelihood be generated from already done KS2 assessements (in itself a highly flawed idea but it is what it is). In many people's worlds 5 grade 4s is a pretty good outcome. If your child is a good student, works hard and has parental support, in all likelihood he'll continue to be motivated. Some so called 'crap schools' are actually better at this than you might think (tend to have smaller year group sizes , for example) so try to keep an open mind for the meantime. Sorry, that's not really advice. You might be in luck and your DC might end up at a school where they don't give out target grades as soon as students walk in the door. They do exist...

Make sure the receiving school is fully informed about the dyslexia : communication between schools at transition can be less thorough than what one might expect.

So what are we agreed on?

1. Telling pupils and parents target grades based on KS2 SATs isn't particularly helpful.

2. Schools 'predicting' future GCSE grades down to a single grade (or worse a 5+ or 6-) anywhere before the end of y10 is daft as it implies a level of accuracy that is just impossible.

3. Schools giving a 'working at' GCSE grade in KS3 is also daft as for many subjects the curriculum is different in KS3 to GCSE. e.g. You can't be 'working at' a 2 in History if you are doing Tudors which aren't on the GCSE syllabus.

4. Parents do however like to have some idea how their child is getting on, and for many (most?) something nebulous like 'good progress' doesn't really cut it.

What we don't agree on

A) How progress / current attainment can be reported in a helpful meaningful way for parents without giving a false sense of accuracy, and in a way that teachers feel makes sense and they aren't just making up numbers to please parents and SLT.

Thing is, Teen, if you try to quantify attainment and progress in any numerical way in schools, it’s going to end up a bunch of crap that teachers make up and parents fret over.

I wrote this thread in 2012. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/secondary/1430501-Im-a-maths-teacher-and-I-make-up-sub-levels Different system, same problems. Although I did smile when I read we used to report sublevels 3 times a year. Now reporting is more like 6 times, so even more useless.

Gov judges progress based on KS2 SATS and with so much at stake you can see why schools are keen to closely watch students and attempt to track progress.

They don’t judge progress though, they judge progress relative to the national cohort. Progress 8 is all about how your kids did compared to other kids nationally and is only calculated once GCSEs are sat.

Any attempt to mimic this calculation in any way is doomed to failure because whatever test you sit before GCSE, you don’t have data for the whole country.

noblegiraffe - I get that flightpaths are ludicrous. However, it would really help if, rather than continuing to flog that dead horse, you set out what you would be willing to communicate to parents to demonstrate your knowledge and understanding of their child. Give us an example of a noblegiraffe report to a parent on how their child is doing in your subject.

Thing is, Walkaround, there are far better brains than mine working on this problem. I like one that suggests giving assessment results as something like a box and whisker diagram, but then I’m a maths teacher, so that would appeal to me.

Maths is setted, so it is easier for maths teachers as if you know your kid is doing well in top set, they’re probably headed for good GCSE grades and if they’re struggling in bottom set, then a pass isn’t guaranteed.

We do end of topic tests every 2-3 weeks. Those results are given to students along with the class average so pupils can keep track of how they are doing compared to the rest of the group. That can also highlight strengths and weaknesses when grouped into ‘algebra’ ‘geometry’ and so on.

The problem with comparing to class average though, is that I’m a good teacher and the class average is what the class should be getting. If a teacher were weak, comparing to class average would hide the fact that the whole class were below where they should be.

As I said, I’m a good teacher, so that is how I can report. It can’t be adopted universally though.

But noblegiraffe - that's always been the case and probably always will be. Parents have always interpreted their children's reports on the back of what they think of the teacher and what they think of the quality of the school in general. Obviously, parental opinions are, like teachers' opinions, not exactly entirely objective!! Opinion on school is probably based partly on Ofsted reports and exam results, and partly on local gossip; and opinions on teachers based on children's comments and parental gossip... and possibly the state of the child's school books and any signs that the teacher has ever looked at them.

I'm not sure how honest a school or teacher would ever be with parents if they were not convinced they were going to be able to teach the whole curriculum, or if they thought a class was underperforming as a whole because of the teacher!

I think the difference between myself and noble is that

• she, as a teacher, doesn't want to give info to parents that might be misleading/inaccurate, and thus, because no system will ever be 80/90-100%, would prefer not to attempt to quantify

whereas

• I, as a parent, whilst appreciating the above, feel that a teacher's best guess is likely to be considerably better than my best guess, and thus I would rather have a teacher's best guess than nothing.

Would that be fair noble ?

The problem is, Teen that you think you’re getting a teacher’s best guess, when I, as a teacher, know you’re getting nothing of the sort.

Working at grades can be ‘they work hard so I’ll add a bit from last time, no wait, I added some last time so they stay the same this time’

Flightpaths are used to determine where a pupil ‘should’ be (which is bullshit) and then these targets are used to determine where pupils actually are, instead of the two being independent of each other. Because, really, we don’t know where the pupils actually are.

And many parents don’t understand that GCSE targets are computer generated and that teachers are not generally allowed to amend them, no matter how ridiculous. Then SLT lean on teachers to make sure predictions aren’t too far off where they want them to be.

Thanks piggy. That's useful to know, and of course my aim is to engage and support as much as I can. (I think you may have misunderstood my comment about 5 grade 4s - it's not that this is bad, it's that 5 grade 4s or above is the benchmark used, and while the national average is 60% of pupils getting this, this school's results are 40% - and I'm a good enough statistician to know that's not a bad performance on the day, or a few of the brighter kids being ill, or whatever. The latest Ofsted report suggests there's a problem at the HoD level in some subjects - my impression when I went round the school was that maths and science are okay, but there may be issues with some of the other key subjects.)

But I don't want to derail the thread - just as a parent facing the issue of potential low expectations being projected onto my child, it's one that I feel very personally. And it doesn't matter really what level the "falling short of what they could achieve" is - whether it's a child bright enough to get grades good enough for university being pulled below that, or a child who should get 5 grade 4s or thereabouts, who'd go on to a decent apprenticeship scheme, but is falling short of that because they've been told they can't achieve it. Don't get me wrong - teachers are over-stretched, lacking in resources and funding and what they achieve is a miracle. But there is a culture (enforced on teachers by external pressures) of "this kid is doing okay, and I only have the time to firefight the issues with the kids who are demonstrably not doing okay", which is very hard for parents who think "but in today's economic climate, just 'okay' isn't going to get my child into a secure position as an adult."

Oh, I don't know, noblegiraffe - I think it's only the English and maths teachers who really suffer from a parental belief that teachers should know where their children are at and should be, because these are the areas tested at the end of primary school and which most strongly affect a child's ability to move on smoothly to post-16 education. I don't know any parents who are bothered if, eg, their child's PE or art grade are miles off an obviously ridiculous minimum expected grade - nor of any schools which would insist a PE teacher give a physically challenged child a high grade just because a computer generated it from their English and maths SATs results.