All schools over offer as not everyone accepts a place. Most schools have a range of likely acceptances…perhaps 60-66% even for popular schools. Some will always turn the school down as another good school is nearer their house and distance is important. With people sitting multiple exams, but the child only being able to go to one, they have to significantly over offer.
This isn’t what WL people want to hear, but for popular schools, the WL is really a back-up insurance for themselves. They stay friendly and encouraging about it through this period, as they want to be able to call you and you to accept the place , if they have mis-judged their over offers and basically didn’t make enough. However, for the school, not going to WL is always better and provides more certainty for being full and also for being full with the best candidates.
This is because when a school has to go to WL, even for just a few places, they often have to go down it significantly to get a ‘yes’. This is because those at the top very likely had other offers and in the period since offers, have accepted another and come to terms with that school and essentially ‘move on’ in their minds. They will have paid deposits, the child has got into thinking the other school is where they are going, and the parents don’t want to rock the boat. Of course, some on WL didn’t have that school as their top one anyway. So if a school has to go to WL, in just the couple of days after state school offers, they might need to offer to more than 10 people to get a ‘yes’. Less popular schools might offer to all their WL and still not fill all their places, if often they are 3rd or 4th choice for many.
Some also decide that they won’t go to WL if they are a couple of places short. They know in the next 6 months a couple of families will move into the area or back from abroad and contact them, and they can test those kids, or rely on other tests they’ve done like CATs and offer the place. Some will decide they will just start the year with a couple of empty places as they know from last experience, good students will appear in the next few months and they’d rather wait, than take someone who might not have quite made the cut. That’s the trouble with WL, whatever they tell the people on it….sometimes it really is that the kids would have done just as well as anyone else who had an offer first time round, but if you’re having to go down beyond a certain level of WL, you might be looking a levels the school really doesn’t want….and might not need to accept for financial reasons.
It’s a cruel thing….because the schools hold all the cards when you’re on a WL and it’s your top choice. They always hope not to go to WL. They will always get more acceptances from people initially offered, than offered beyond state school offer day, and they hate the uncertainty of needing to use the WL. But they often keep people hanging on and give false hope about often using the WL or offering lots of places from the WL…because they hope if they need it, they will get people from the top few and need to keep them positive about the school.
By the end of this week, when they say they’re not going to WL, they have a pretty clear picture of acceptances and genuinely are full or happy with their numbers. Some will say they will keep a small WL open if they have a history of more people later dropping out…but the no.s dropping out really tails off. Those who’d paid a deposit but were on a WL elsewhere, will themselves probably know know that school is t going to WL, or will have received an offer and so pulled out from the one they paid their deposit to.
I’d say by the end of this week, you should really have a good idea and coming to terms with what you’ve got is a good idea. Yes, occasionally later offers are made, but they are small in number, so if you do get one, it’s to be seen as an added bonus, but not really something to cling onto hope for.
Hope all the lovely children are able to feel excited and happy with what’s looking likely…and all the lovely parents who’ve out so much love and care into the long, hard process. Once you start getting letters about summer term joiner events and uniform lists etc, there can be excitement for everyone.