The league tables are out - let's talk Progress 8

[noblegiraffe]

The secondary league tables were published this week:

www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk/schools-by-type?step=default&table=schools&for=secondary

Some schools at the top have fab progress 8. Harris Battersea has done amazingly with 80% PP

I saw on Twitter this interesting breakdown of Progress 8 by type of student. Girls make more progress than boys, students with EAL make more progress than those who have English as a first language. Disadvantaged pupils make less progress, students with SEN even less.
When you look at the league tables, you then notice at the top several girls schools, and London schools with a high proportion of EAL.

Is progress 8 really a measure of progress, or a measure of school intake? Does a student being EAL outweigh them being disadvantaged?

And why are boys doing so much worse than girls?

... and then further down the table for the school you can see the %. There's a 9% gap at 5 and above for maths and English but at 4 and above it is only 2 %. Science has the lowest of the reported subjects but that's also the national picture.

It's a load of bloody rubbish.

My first school (I'm a teacher) comes out really well on progress. This is because it's in a nice leafy middle class area with the added bonus of having a failing middle school feeding into it. Really bright kids with middle class parents and falsely low KS2 Sat results = off the scale for progress.

My second school looks really bad. This is because the primary schools are shit hot with SATS (and there are many rumours of cheating). However, many of the kids are from quite disadvantaged backgrounds and when it comes to revising for GCSEs there's no help/tutoring etc.

In my opinion - the teaching is better at the second school.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

My DC’s school result is well below average at 0.21 with confidence interval as 0.35-0.07.

I can’t find anymore information than this - where do I need to look
for a further breakdown as mentioned above?

I’ve found a breakdown but can someone please advise me how to make sense of the figures given?

Should that be -0.21?

Sorry yes -0.21.

Looking a bit more it seems 18% of prior middle attainers got grade 5 or above in maths/English & 75% higher attainers. My DS started as a middle attainers.

The confidence level should also be -0.35 to-0.07.

We have 8 local secondary schools.

The range in year group sizes from 140-300.

I have looked at all progress 8 scores.

The 2 schools who usually under perform (high levels of deprivation and forces children) have progress 8 of -0.7. Only one of those made the 'worst schools list'.
The ones who generally do well and have a very mixed intake have progress 8 of 0,0.1 and 0.2. Interestingly the one with 0.2 has the lowest attainment 8 of the 3! (Why?!)
Another school had -0.1 but that's usually where they are. Much improved school and those who want to do well generally do iyswim?
The other 2 schools seem to have plummeted. One has above average progress 8 last year and now is -0.3 and week below average and the other is -0.1 and below average. The both have attainment 8 in low 40's. Both have more high achievers entering than low/middle combined.

Can anyone explain why this might be? Why do some schools drop when others tend to remain fairly static? (Using data for past few years with a-c etc).
The cohort type and numbers of EAL, PP and Sen have remained pretty much same in each school year in year.

My DC's school has a lower Att8 but higher P8 than other local schools. Because its cohort is significantly lower achieving on entry. However, it also has a higher 5+ in Maths and English than the schools with a higher Att8, but lower P8.

Yes Piggy 57% get Grade 4 or above. Low attainers 20%, Middle 42% High 80%

The school Ds does go it (it's a 13 plus school in a middle school area so they have less time with the kids) does much better with middle & high attainers.

Low - 3% Grade 5 - 5% Grade 4
Middle - 17% Grade 5 - 52% Grade 4
High - 87% Grade 5 - 98% Grade 4

definitely looks like you made the right choice then alexander!

Yes - Shame Ds had to go through 2 hellish years first before he could start in Year 9 but I'm so glad.

@Gileswithachainsaw
Having seen this thread I've just looked at our local school for updated information
There is none.
Why wouldn't the progress 8 breakdown be published?
Do you mean your local school isn't on this site? www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk

Its there and you can get the score if you add to a comparison list but you can't get the full breakdown

Incidently 2 of the potential schools dd could get are on the worst performing list in the article linked

Giles, are you sure? When you put a school (well, to be fair you have to put at least 2 schools)into the comparison list, and look at the comparison list, you get 2 drop-down boxes. The right hand one is the most useful for looking at sub-groups such as e.g. previous low attainers.

PM me if you like, and I'll have a look.

Interestingly the one with 0.2 has the lowest attainment 8 of the 3! (Why?!)

Probably because they have more middle / lower attainers, who make good progress but don't get such high absolute grades.

Can anyone explain why this might be? Why do some schools drop when others tend to remain fairly static?

The calculations have varied year on year, so no Progress8s are comparable between different years. For example, last year the conversion from letter grades to numerical points went up in uniform 1-point steps, this year a step up from A to A is worth 3x more than a step up from F to E. So for example, a school with a high proportion of relatively low achievers who made good progress (ie progressed from an expected F to an E) would have got a much better Progress8 score last year than this year, and conversely a school with a very high proportion of high achievers who made the jump from an expected A to an A would have got a much better Progress8 this year than last year. This has rescued several grammars who last year had below average Progress8 and this year have average or above.

My ds’s old school’s results make me want to weep. They try so incredibly hard- but they are doing something catastrophically wrong.

What is their justification for weighting it like that can'tkeep? Seems unfair on non grammars.

And to give a falsely good impression of grammars if I've understood?

No justification has been given. It is simply tabulated in the 'How it is calculated' document here

It is an anomaly that will go away, almost entirely after 2018 summer results are published (when almost all GCSEs will be numerical), and finally in summer 2019 (when the final ones are included).

But for the moment we have a year on year series of Progress8 results that nobody is telling parents can't be compared.

Perigord, the thing is, every type of school will complain it's not fair for them.

Grammars complained that it was harder to get children to make better than expected progress, since so many of their pupils would have to get straight As / A*s just to make expected progress.

Schools in areas with pushy primaries can say it isn't fair because the Y6 SATs are inflated.

Schools with high proportions of low attainers, particularly those who are also SEN / from very deprived backgrounds say that it is much harder to make good progress with these children.

Are you sure when numerical results come in they won't change it again so 8 - 9 gets 2 points. 3- 4 gets 1 point or something?

Have pmd you cant

You don't need to compare two schools on the league tables to see a breakdown of their results, you can just type the name of the school into www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk and then there are loads of dropdown boxes with breakdowns if you scroll down past the graphs..
To see EAL, SEN, PP you need to go to the Absence and Pupil Population tab.

Perigord,

The same document says
"Points will be allocated to the new GCSEs on a 1-9 point scale corresponding to the new 1 to 9 grades, e.g. a grade 9 will get 9 points in the performance measures. "

This will have been used for last summer's English / Maths already.

However, Government policy can change at any time....