How Well Do GCSE Mock Results Predict Actual GCSE Grades?

[AlwaysHungryAlwaysTired]

Anyone willing to share their experience of how well their DS/DD's mock results worked as a predictor of the grades they actually ended up with in their GCSEs?

Thanks in advance.

My DD got 4 As, 4 As & 3 Bs in her mocks. Then 10 As & 1 A in the real things (the A was 1 mark out of 200 off an A*). For context, she did bugger all next to no revision for the mocks but did revise for the real things.

I kept them so I could compare them to DS's mock results (which are trickling out this week). I suspect he's going to do slightly better than her-but he did some revision for them.

DD1 very worked hard for her mocks and the mock results and final results were very similar. The main difference was failing Eng Lang in the mock, and just scraping a pass in the real thing due to a mound of intervention and work.

My ds did well in his mocks then got a grade lower in each subject for his real exams.

The mocks will give you a rough idea and thats all.

Oldest DS got 10 As in his mocks but only 4 As, 3 Bs and 3 Cs at the real thing.

Oldest DD got 10 Bs at her mocks and 9 As 1A* at the real thing.

Current DD doing GCSEs has just done mocks and got 3 As/8s so far (2× English and 1 Maths ). The rest are due over the next few weeks.
However her school report in December said 5s and 6s across the board based on SATs results so shes already kicked those useless estimated grades into touch.

Depends on the child really and how much work they put in for mocks.
Mostly they tend to go up a grade or more between mocks and the real GCSEs.

For my DS1 who is bright, but tends to coast unless it's the 'real thing' he got mostly Bs & Cs in mocks with virtually no revision. Went on to get 9 A* 2 As in GCSEs.

DS2 has just got similar mostly Bs & Cs, but I would predict will end up with something like 998877AAB in GCSEs (or equivalent)

Ds1 did appallingly in his mocks (Ds in subjects he was predicted A for) but had done zilch in the way of revision. The results were a shock to him (not to us or his teachers) and he did get his arse into gear and got the Ds up to A and A.

Ds2 actually did better in his mocks than in the real exams, he got all As for his sciences in the mocks but only Bs in the summer so I suspect that good mock results can be counter productive for some pupils

DS did better in his mocks than the real thing too.

As someone else has said it totally depends on the child and the papers.

There's no science to it, a child who does a similar amount of revision for similar papers in similar circumstances should get similar grades but there are too many variables to say anything more than that imo.

My DDs were convinced that they make the mocks harder so no-one coasts and they all pull their socks up for the real thing.

Not sure how this would work in practice though!

How depressing that the only people posting on here are all talking about 10 A*. Any more 'normal' results? Mine got all 3s, 4s, 5s, and a couple of 6s. Very worried as wants to do A levels.

DD did 11 GCSEs, she went up two grades in one subject (funnily enough the hardest exam for her and she thought she'd dropped a couple of grades!), went up one grade in three and fell in two. She did very little revision for her mocks.

It was actually two of the science subjects she improved a grade on, which were at the end. By that time she'd had enough of revising and only had a quick look at a couple of areas.

classicchristmas, is your DC predicted to get the required results for Sixth Form? If so, then obviously it's possible.

One thing this year's cohort have to remember is that the grading for mocks will be more 'up in the air' than previous years. Normally schools use last year's papers for this year's mocks and they give the grades based on the actual grade boundaries.

This year they can only do that for English and Maths. Everything else is a bit more guesswork than usual. So Christmas try not to get too despondent. (DD got 5Bs and 3Cs in the end, which was pretty much what I was hoping for).

classicchristmas my DD got a bunch of 6's, a 7 and two 4's at mocks. She is expected to have an average of 5 for Sixth Form. 6's are a good pass. We're not all A* students!

Thank you everyone. Do feel a bit despondent, I would be so happy with a clutch of 5's! Predictions are for 5's and 6's but got a 3 in Eng Lang (not doing Eng Lit) and just don't know how to get him up to the required 5. Has a tutor but finds it really difficult, he is so set on staying for sixth form but having to face up to the fact that it may not be possible. Just cannot imagine what he will do instead as not practical in anyway so an apprenticeship would be tricky.

dds GCSE results were closer to those predicted by her teachers than the actual mocks. The mock results were more spread out with grades from A to E. For the real exams the actual results were Bs and Cs which was what she needed for sixth form.
For the new 9-1 exams schools are either using the grade boundaries for the old qualifications or estimated grades given percentages of candidates obtaining certain grades will be similar. This may not be as accurate as the old system depending on the ability range of the cohort at your dcs school compared to the national average.

classic Your DS has 3 core options

• A levels
• BTECs
• Apprenticeships

Within these there are options too.

• Your school might have higher requirements to do A levels than an alternative school or a 6th form college.
• BTECs are more vocational, but you can still go on to university if you do well enough (though you are more restricted I think).
• You can do a mix of BTEC & A levels if your college permits
• Apprenticeships aren't necessarily 'practical' if you look on the government apprenticeships website you may be surprised as the variety.

What I would suggest is that you at least do some looking in the background for a Plan B. What if your DC gets similar results in the real thing. What are the options? Do any need to be applied for now?

In our system in Hants the schools don't have 6th forms, so everyone has to make a positive choice on what to do next. So they don't just stay on at school even if it isn't the best thing. (There are negatives to the system too though).

There is a BTEC Support thread on this board which has some info about BTECs if you want to learn more about them. There is also an Apprenticeships board, though that's mainly populated by tumbleweed.

Thanks for the responses everyone. classic please don't be despondent. I agree with TeenTimesTwo, there are different options for post-GCSE and forewarned is forearmed. Good luck!

My DC have had varying mock results although there's not much between them in terms of ability but I can't remember any mock results accurately just a blurry sense that the correlation between revision done and mock results was noticeable. Also that they all did better in the real thing but then they all did a sensible amount of work for the real thing.

DD Y11 did her mocks before Christmas and got 7 (for Art - something to do with coursework not done), 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 9 and is now predicted 10 grade 9s which I have doubts about and told her that predicted grades are much more of an art than a science this year.

Bear in mind that the new gcse grade boundaries have been plucked from thin air from the teachers (except English and maths).

Hence art not science.

I do worry about the 'stability' of the marking for courses where they have a new syllabus this year. When I was looking for sample questions for DS's revision I strayed into a group on Facebook where history teachers were discussing how to apply the mark scheme to answers their pupils had written. Some of them had posted photos of the student work . For some of the '8 mark' questions the suggested mark ranged from a 3 to a 7! That's a massive variation and could be a 2 grade difference applied across the whole paper.
If the poor teachers have no idea how to mark it, what hope is there for the pupils? .

Thank you for all the helpful information, a bit of research is required here I think! It is the new system which is such a worry I think, no-one really knows which way it is going to go..

Mocks mostly predicted actual grades quite well for DD1. She got Bs in her sciences which went up to As in the real thing, got a B in History (1 mark off an A) which was a surprise in a negative sense - but it really does depend on the exam on the day. Got 7s in English mocks, 8s in the real thing because the questions fell right this time. Geography, French and Maths were an exact match.

DS got U in Eng. Lit mock but A in actual thing.

I may have never known the rest of his mock results b/c he didn't give a toss. However he pulled out the effort for the real thing & got decent grades. Sometimes mocks are a good wakeup call.

Exactly the same experience for my son Lljkk right up to the exam they were still predicting C/D for English for my son . He got an A and performed above his mocks for all his exams. I must admit I assumed that would always be the case as the children have an extra 4 months of revision so I would expect them to be more prepared. Ignoring the element of surprise in some exams which you can never predict. Bracing myself for my youngest results on Tuesday but won’t be too worried if they are below expectations still time to pull it back for the real thing