Now, only a few years ago there was a different massive problem - NQTs were struggling to find first posts because there were too many teachers. Where did they all go? Did the number entering training gomdown at the point when all everyone was talking about was over supply?
I’m not sure what your point is here @Moggy. Do you think we’re lying about the retention crisis? If you genuinely don’t know, let me tell you a story...
Once upon a time there was an education system. It wasn’t perfect, but it was working. It was staffed by a pretty passionate bunch. They were people who really cared about others and who wanted the best possible outcomes for them.
Then along came a man. We’ll call him Michael, for that was his name. Michael was also pretty passionate and he had Power. He decided that because this education system wasn’t exactly like the one he’d experienced back in the 1950s, it couldn’t possibly be doing any good so he set about changing it.
Now, a sensible person wanting to improve something might think it through, talk to the experts, make ‘A Plan’. They might decide to introduce changes slowly, perhaps consult with the teachers who would be delivering this plan, allow lots of time for exam boards and schools to prepare, but not Michael. Oh no. He made a few rash decisions for the sake of headlines, tried to get his name known for creating a more ‘robust’ system (y’know, so that we might remember that name he next time he applied for a Big Job) and generally went about pissing of all of those passionate people, who found it very hard to speak out because Michael and his cronies criticised them in the press and said they just wanted more money). He also totally screwed with the education of thousands of teenagers, not least the classes of 2014 (changing the English specifications TWICE part way through their course), the class of 2017 (guinea pigs for the new 9-1 English and maths) and 2018 (guinea pigs for all of the other 9-1s)
Alongside this, Michael introduced prp, despite knowing it was going to be impossible to measure progress effectively as he’d messed with the system so much.
So yes, some teachers started leaving, then their friends saw that the leavers seemed happy, so they left. Then graduates started asking around before signing up for teaching courses (seen the threads on the Staffroom? They give brutal accounts of what teaching is like now) and decided it didn’t sound much fun...
So there’s a retention crisis. A serious one. Most teachers aren’t actually against the idea of prp, they just haven’t seen a fair way of measuring performance.