Can anyone explain what the Progress 8 score is?

[believebelievebelieve]

Tried googling it but I still don't understand.

Oh look what I found (I should get a life), the data from this year.
Average attainment in maths and English at GCSE for those getting 5.8 at KS2 was just below an 8 at GCSE. So the grammar schools snaffling the 9s on those double weighted measures with their super-bright cohorts will be finding things a bit easier than those with a less selective intake.

I reckon achievement at KS2 is way more capped than at KS4.

I agree with you that the size of the 2 effects may well be mismatched (and the 'top' cap will be less applicable in the world of 9s, as that change has already happened, while the KS2 one will take more years to work through). I just wanted to point out that there ARE two factors affecting the data in different directions. I am no supporter of grammar schools.

Yes but the old 'bright kids targeted A*s can only ever meet their target, not beat them' doesn't apply any more because the new measure isn't about comparison against targets but comparison against actual attainment which will be lower.

The same point does apply, though, surely?

Pupil A is in a 'prior attainment group' of pupils who got 4cs at KS2. The average grade amongst this group might be Cs. Pupil A gets A*s, so their progress is very high.

Pupil B is in a 'prior attainment group' of pupils who got 5as at KS2. The average grade amongst this group might be As. They can get A*s, but they can't get higher, so their progress is capped.

I agree with the spreading of the top grades amongst 7s, 8s and 9s in all subjects from the coming year, this top cap will become less relevant - and this year (though not last year) progress from A to A* was 'over-weighted' in Progress8. Interestingly, localish grammars, some of which had very poor Progress figures last year, have much better figures this year, which suggests that the over-weighting of progress between higher grades has had an impact.

However I do think it is more nuanced than 'Grammar schools find it easier to get good Progress8 because their pupils come in higher than their initial figures suggest', and that is all I wanted to point out.

But conversely, if a child bombs GCSEs through illness, bereavement or generally going off the rails then their progress 8 can plummet far more if they are a high Ks2 attainer than if they are a low one. So that can affect high ability intake schools more dramatically.

The child who is a C grade target who gets A* grades is a statistical anomaly where a level 6+ kid who gets a grade 9 is a far more regular and expected occurrence.
Grammar schools are full of level 6+ kids being measured from a 5A at KS2, where comps are not full of grade C kids smashing their targets by miles in a way that disadvantages grammars compared to comps. The picture, I suspect falls in favour of grammars.

Kids bombing out is an issue for any school, they’re going to cap the effect of those kids on Progress 8 from next year I think.