Headline GCSE stats....

[BertrandRussell]

...any other education nerds looking at them? How did your school do? I don't think i realised that, despite everyone agreeing that a 4 was the new C, it would be a 5 for performance measures. Which is a bit shit for schools like ours.

We are doing secondary applications this month. Dd's preferred a cool has a progress 8 score of 0.76 which understand is good but no real idea how good. What other information schools I be looking for. I have no idea about the intake although it is non selective we live in a fairly middle class town with lots of big houses around the school so naturally the kids may be higher achieving.

0.76 is a very good P8 score. They are doing well even if their intake is very middle class.

Noble, funny you should mention deciles.

This was going to be my reply to cantkeepawayforever.

I disagree that only schools with the same prior attainment can be compared, although it helps.

A selective school will probably have a high proportion of high prior attainers – which can be compared to a non-selective school using the same criteria (i.e. not their headline figure). The underlying data contains A8/P8 for low, middle, high prior attainers.

I would like to see the headline figures being Gender Progress values, not a school figure (A8 on it's own is fairly meaningless). The average P8 figures (2016 mainstream schools) are 0.08 (Girls) and -0.18 (Boys) – a significant difference. As a parent of a boy I’m considerably more interested in how Boys perform at a school, so a P8 of zero for Boys is good.
Then have the same for Low/Middle/High prior attainers, then for Decile prior attainers. Again, I'm interested in how pupils of roughly the same level as my DC perform.

For attainment I would have an average point score, like A-level, rather than an absolute value.
Low prior attainers are disadvantaged – a couple of years ago 10% of pupils didn’t take English Lit – so their A8 English slot is compromised. Also, Low prior attainers do not take as many GCSEs so may not fill all the A8 slots.
If the A8 figure was an average point score over all subjects taken then that would get round some of it. Again you could have a breakdown at Low/Middle/High and Deciles.
You could also have a breakdown at subject level – English, Maths, Science, Humanities, MFL, Others and have an Ebacc one if required.

Students who were high attainers on KS2 SATs who passed the 11plus or other entrance exam are not the same as kids who have the same KS2 scores but failed the 11plus or entrance test though. In a grammar area comparing high attainers from grammars to those at secondary moderns is pointless. Their high attainment cohorts won't be the same even if their KS2 scores are similar.

It's a good point about the significant figures. 'About 50%/70%' is probably as near as you can get on these sample sizes.

If a few high attainers leave the school, is that accounted for in the Progress8? Of DD's initially high attaining cohort, one burnt out completely and has not been in school for a year, and another (top-marks-in-everything sort of child) has moved out of the area. How, if at all, is that included in the results?

DumbledoresApprentice, just to clarify, I was talking about comparing schools using Progress values, not Attainment, that's why I said I'd like to see the headline figure be a Progress one.

Whoooo! Top school in the NE for progress 8 and second for everything else!

Lancelottie, P8 will be calculated based on those taking exams at the school, if pupils leave then their P8 will be calculated at their new school.
Just because a pupil, or group of pupils, is high attaining doesn't mean their P8 will be high.

If the 'burnt out' one doesn't do exams then they won't be counted in P8, which for the school may be a good thing, if they are going to flop.
There are stories of schools moving pupils on if they are not progressing as they should, as that would create a negative P8 score for the school!

The other weakness with the Progress 8 measure is that dcs with no KS2 score are excluded.
This could be pupils moving to the state sector from the independent sector,
Some pupils being home educated at primary school.
Pupils moving into the UK from abroad.
This may in some cases account for the differences between the data published by the school and in the league tables.

Yes, but the "progress" for children with a KS2 score of, say 115, who passed the 11 plus will look better than for children who also have a KS2 score of 115 but failed the 11 plus. Their progress will be judged against their KS2 scores but the grammar schools sift them by 11 plus so all of their high attainers with good KS2 scores also passed a test designed to sort children by academic aptitude. At a secondary modern your high attainment group will be mostly made up of children who failed that test despite having high KS2 scores.

DumbledoresApprentice, unless I have missed something then the P8 score has nothing to do with 11 plus, how can it. It is the difference between KS2 and GCSE, reagrdless of school type.

I agree that the Grammar will, on average, have more high prior attainers, but that doesn't mean their progress is judged differently (by the Gov anyway), and it doesn't mean that they would, necessarily, progress more at the Grammar.

dumbledore Most areas of the country don't have grammar schools or the 11+ so how can a test that is only sat by a relatively small number of pupils be relevant to GCSEs that are taken by 16 year olds across nationally.
I understand that it's possible to pass the 11+ and still not obtain a grammar place in some areas. Also am not sure if these tests and the pass mark are the same for different LEAs.

I think maybe I'm not explaining this clearly. You are right, schools are judged just against KS2 scores not 11 plus. If entry to grammars was based on KS2 scores then all would be fair. But grammar schools test for academic aptitude so their high KS2 attainers have been tested and found to be more able (for want of a better term) and therefore are likely to make more progress than children who also had the same KS2 scores but didn't show themselves to be as able in the 11 plus.

Catslife- I was only talking about if you were comparing schools in grammar areas. In areas without grammars it's irrelevant and you can compare the high attainment band fairly well but comparing the high attainment bands from grammars and secondary moderns will give you a misleading impression.

DumbledoresApprentice, ok, understand what you're trying to say.

"Grammar schools test for 'aptitude' (but that is another debate), so their pupils are 'brighter' compared to others at same KS2 score - so therefore they will progress more at the Grammar"

I could show you a number of Grammars which don't have P8 scores as good as non-Grammars (for high prior attainers), with both having roughly the same intake (of high prior attainers).

DumbledoresApprentice, did you want to give me some Grammars in an area and I'll look into it.

Of course, I work in a school that is not academically selective and has a much better progress 8 for high attainers the local super selective. We're just doing a much better job.