Predicted Grades - what is the procedure please?

[GnomeDePlume]

DD is in Y12, starting the uni application process.

What is the procedure for predicted grades please? She is a bit concerned that the predicted grades are being decided before the end of year exams are held.

I have advised DD that she needs to talk to head of year but I was hoping the wise owls of MN would be able to advise on what the normal procedure for predicted grades is please.

Is it normal for students to be able to discuss their predicted grades before they are finalised?

Sorry, I didnt include in my OP, DD has ASD and struggles a bit if procedures arent clear or followed.

Well at my dcs' school predicted grades were always given in October of Year 13. They'd be based on AS results (I guess now internal exams at the end of year 12) and performance (class work, tests, application, attitude etc) during the first few weeks of year 13.

Teachers would tend to give the best predicted grades possible. DS3 persuaded his maths teacher to change her A prediction to an A star as he needed at least one star for the unis he was applying to.

Thank you stonecircle so the predicted grades were discussed with the student? DD is also applying to high grade universities and is worried that the predicted grades will err on the side of conservative.

Yes predicted grades will be discussed with each subject teacher around October as PP said, as they will go on the UCAS. Teachers make the best and most accurate predictions they can - it's in our own best interest as well as the students'!

Forgot to mention - the predicted grades will take this year's exam results into account. Good luck to your DD, OP.

Thank you Synedoche. It is possible that some of the predicted grades are being worked on now because teachers are leaving at the end of this year.

Predicted grades - a travesty! Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is how I understand it can work.
Student A: lenient teacher, predicts all As /A stars. Student B: of same ability, teacher accurate, predicts As and a B. Both get same results after exams, AAB, but Student A, unlike student B, receives offer from top university, because offer made on stellar predictions before results are known. University decides to keep Student A in spite of dropped grades. Student B can trade up but reduced to taking what`s left when actual results are known. Total bullcrap!

Alternatively student A applies for places beyond their reach, gets v high offers which they fail to meet and are rejected in August leaving them with no place. Student B achieves their realistic offer and happily waltzes off into the sunset...

But teachers are held to account over predicted grades. If the school under/over predicts regularly it's flagged up by Ofsted.

Well, DD has spoken with head of sixth. She has been reassured that this is only the start of the predicted grades process.

I can see what comeandgetyourtea says. Just to add to the confusion DD's school and postcode flag up on all the various lists for contextual offers. However DD doesn't want to rely on this happening. For all she knows contextual offers won't be around next year.

In 2015 only 25.5% of UCAS applicants met or exceeded their predicted grades:

www.ucas.com/file/71796/download?token=D4uuSzur

It's a hugely inaccurate science with some students being over predicted and some under predicted with every combination of negative scenario a real possibility.

As a parent - play the system and encourage your child to ask for the highest reasonable predicted grades but then make contingency plans for clearing or a gap year to resit if results come in too low or adjustment or a gap year to reapply to that dream Uni if your child exceeds their predicted grades.

I agree with Comeandgetyourtea. A couple of places ds applied to typically offer AstarAA for his subject. As I said above, he persuaded his maths teacher to predict the star. Nottingham was one of those wanting AstarAA and that was what they offered him. Until, that is, he went to the offer holder day and they told everyone in the room they would drop the offer to AAB if they firmed them.

He had to be predicted an Astar to get the initial offer but that was all. It's no wonder teachers are tempted to predict as optimistically as they can.

It's a minefield of course. Some places will take people with significantly lower grades and others won't budge an inch. I know someone who had an AAA offer and got AAB, missing the third A by only a point or two and the uni wouldn't take him.

dds college say that predicted grades are non negotiable and are taken from their AS grades with a little discretion thrown in.
It's a horrible system.

Gnome In that case I imagine the outgoing teacher will leave their internal predictions (which teacher make very regularly) and the new teacher will be guided by the internal data. (Or that's what I would do!)

Our head of sixth form tells us to be realistic but cautiously optimistic. Generally, I go by the AS grade (we still do AS exams), but take into account what I've seen over the year. I think, what could this student get if they continued to work like this, and had a good paper on the day. Two teachers take each subject, so it has to be agreed before giving to the student, but we generally concur.

I have a pretty good record with predicted grades, and resist predicting unrealistically high grades. Students are generally OK with this, but parents sometimes try to apply pressure on their child's behalf. I always say that I am willing to predict higher if I see a marked improvement in written work, and a solid piece of coursework in the making.

DD's concern is that there has been a lack of marking for one of her A level subjects. The end of year exams are after when the predicted grades will be submitted. These are the teachers who are moving on.

Schools have to predict accurately on their internal data but UCAS apps are a whole other story.

A lot of schools will give students whatever predicted grades they want...and a lot of students get inflated predictions and apply to universities they have no hope of ever actually attending.

I seriously suggest you speak with your daughter to the Head of 6th / Dep Head / whoever about what realistic predictions would be for your daughter.

DS's school seemes to want to predict as low a grades as possible for A levels and there are a lot of very unhappy parents at the moment. They seem more concerned with boasting about the percentage who achieve their first offer rather than making sure that the boys get the best offer possible. Some of the predictions are ridiculously low for boys with outstanding GCSE results.

Rather amusingly his school only offered IB until a few years ago and having re-introduced A levels the teachers are now moaning about how much more difficult it is to get the top grades at A level. This is a school that spent years telling prospective parents that A levels were too easy and boasting about the much more "academically rigorous" IB.

Frustrating!

There WILL be some students who don't make a great transition to A-Level, and their high GCSE grades can't be matched now.

But.

Please don't waste another hour in frustration without picking up the phone and asking your child's teachers and/or head of 6th form to ask them about it.

DD will be speaking to appropriate teachers again this week. What she is impressing on them is that getting an accurate predicted grade based on her actual performance matters.

She is happy with the predicting on two of her subjects (Maths & Physics) as the assessment and predicting has been going on since the start of the year. It is in the third subject (chemistry) where the assessment has been thin on the ground.

The subject she wants to study at university has a strong chemistry element so getting the prediction for chemistry right is important.

What she is impressing on them is that getting an accurate predicted grade based on her actual performance matters.

That's all well and good Gnome. But all the time many many schools are giving inflated predictions, universities will be giving inflated offers. No point in your DD getting reasonable predictions if they don't get her the offers (which may subsequently be reduced anyway for offer holders and considerably reduced for those going through clearing)

It's also very difficult at the moment for teachers to be accurate now that we have 2 year courses. I think your DD should be hoping she gets predictions which reflect the highest grades she could get if she works her socks off and gets good papers.

Good point stonecircle

At least now it has been confirmed that the predicted grades will be assessed after the mocks.

To give you a sense of the flightyness of the grading for chemistry in the school, earlier in the year DD was given a grade of C (based on she knew not what as no work had been marked). DD went to the teacher to query the grade and the teacher said 'oh well, I'll give you a B then'.

Thankfully this teacher is moving on.