Any AQA GCSE science teachers about? Question re ISA marks/UMS

[GiraffeorOcelot]

I have finally found out the exact marks DS got in his triple science ISAs.

Having looked them up on the AQA website UMS converter it seems that the UMS rate is exactly the same for the last 3 years, i.e. a raw score of 37 in physics for example is 73 UMS.

Does anyone know if this is co-incidence? Or whether it is likely to change at all? I know most marks/UMS change yearly which is why it has surprised me.

I really need to establish quite how well DS needs to do in the final exams in order to secure some decent grades!

Thank you

Don't know the answer, but please be aware that those marks may be moderated down.

Yes I do understand that thanks Titchy . I'm just after as accurate an idea as I can have about DS's possibilities.

Grade boundaries can and do change, even if they have been static for more than one series. He just needs to do as well as he can in all his exams, surely. What is the alternative scenario, he only completes half of the unit 3 paper because you have calculated he has sufficent marks by then?
The grade boundaries will alter for each of the written papers anyway which makes it impossible to call.

Yes Rosie of course he has to do as well as he can in all the exams. The question stems from wanting to know if there is even a chance of him getting the results he needs to get into the sixth from of his choice.

Well he has only gained/lost maximum 25% of the marks. Get full ums in the other three papers and he is already on a mid B. I am assuming he did not score zero for his CAU, so even 12 marks, a miserable G by last years grade boundaries moves him up to an A.

And full ums of course is not full marks, last year it was 55, 55 and 41 respectively for units 1,2 and 3 so eminently doable.

I doubt the UMS scores will change much this year. They have been creeping up each gradually over the years but seeing as this is their last year, I would think they will stay the same or very close.

We work on around 40/41 is about an A grade and 44/45 is an A* in the Additional or separate sciences if that helps.