maths teachers - do you predict a grade 9?

[DorothyL]

Or do you think that's not possible?

I think it's foolhardy given that we have zero information about the standard required.

Interesting, my dd is predicted a 9 but that seems rather risky.

I think if it's a kid who is going to get 100% or close to 100% then it is probably on the cards, but if they've predicted 9s for a lot of students in the class, then they may be going off the FFTs which from what I've seen are a bit crazy.

She is set 2 in a superselective and gets 80 to 85 % in tests

That means nothing though, as nobody knows the standard they are, she is or that the test requires. It's just a great big stab in the dark.

DS2 (Y9) is predicted a grade 9 in 2018 for Maths, Physics, Biology, Chemistry and now French. Grade 8 in other subjects.

I'm guessing this is based on performance in CAT tests and internal school exams.

He is fairly confident with his Maths (did well in the UKMT junior Olympiad last year) so I think a grade 9 target is appropriate for Maths.

You see, I find it hard to know how secure a prediction for an unknown exam is, with no point of reference, over two years hence.

It won't be based on cats scores it will be on Ks2 sats and with an "aspirational" bias.

Do you mean predict, or target? DS's target is 9. His teacher says he would get an A* in old money, thinks he should get an 8 in new money, doesn't know enough to predict a 9 for any of his students. Perfectly reasonable really.

It says target 9, on course for 9

Our school targets in letters still as so much is unknown. (Even for y10) I can't see how a 9 can be predicted since 8 is the old A** star and 9 is an A star star and there is no way to know what percentage of children would get A star or A star star on the harder test.

The top 20% of those who get a 7 or above will be awarded a 9, which for maths will be roughly the top 3%. However it's not the top 3% nationally, but the top 3% of those who sit the exam.

So this top 3% will look different depending on whether all the selective private schools like Eton decide to enter their kids for this exam, or whether they go for IGCSE and leave the GCSE for the state schools.

So how can you predict a 9 with any confidence unless the child in question is extraordinary?

We've been told that DS2 consistently performs in the top 0.1% of his age group and often in the top 0.01%.

How can anyone rank your son in the top 1-10% of the entire population of year 9s? Who told you that?

Based on what? I can't think of any regular assessment that's graded that way?

Nope. Right now even predicting a B for current year 11 worries me. No way would I predict any of our year 10 or lower a 9. A 7 I should imagine will be the top.

Let alone 0.01%

-The school my DDs are in are predicting everything low. And I don't blame them.

I'm glad my DS is in Year 11. DS2 is in Year 5 so will have plenty of time to prepare - unlike the current Yr 10s.

A 7 will be the top -

Do you mean nobody will achieve a higher grade?

Do you mean you don't think anyone will get a grade higher than 7?

Oops sorry

We never ever predict an a* here, and an a very rarely. So 7 is likely top in both aspects. But we have a grammar school nearby so that does affect our top grades.

(Name changed from earlier in thread)

Firstly, he got full marks in the Maths paper used for secondary selection. About 2500 children sat the paper that year. One other got full marks.

Secondly, when he was in Y6, he was given weekly 1:1 Maths teaching by one of the governors, who had just retired as a secondary school Maths teacher. He told us that he saw DS2's level of ability about once in a decade.

Due to SEN, DS2 is seen by a child psychiatrist and child psychologist at a NHS specialist centre for children with complex neurodevelopmental conditions. They have done various assessments and it was there that I was told that his IQ / cognitive ability is somewhere between the top 0.1% and the top 0.01% of the population. This was not specific to mathematics, but that is one of his stronger areas.

The only reason I commented on this thread in the first place was to share my experience of a child who has been given a target of grade 9 for the new GCSE.

I am not a Maths teacher, but I do realise that this is a new syllabus and that students won't even be sitting the first papers until 2017.

I think that teachers have been put into a very difficult position with the specifications being accredited at the eleventh hour.

My impression from the Maths teachers on this thread is that a grade 9 target is ridiculous and arbitrary. My impression from the Maths teachers who teach him and have taught him is that grade 9 is a reasonable target for him to aim for.

So sorry, I've just read back my earlier comments and my post of 20:43 I meant to say that his targets are 9999988888. I used the word 'predicted' in error. He is only in Year 9 and we don't have a time machine.

I thought lots of people scored 100% on the maths part of the 11+. There were two of us in our secondary school, and we were from the same primary school too