GCSE pass rate to drop by 23% in 2017

[noblegiraffe]

Latest anaylsis suggests that the GCSE pass rate for the new GCSEs could drop by 23% to about 35%.
schoolsweek.co.uk/gcse-pass-rate-could-drop-23-under-new-reforms/

This is when the good pass rate is set at a '5' which is a high C/low B.

The government has fudged it by saying that a '4' will count as pass for entry to sixth form, so any student who gets a 4 will not need to resit maths and English post-16; they'll only be screwed in later years when they try to apply for jobs alongside those who did have to resit till they got a 5.

I know the new performance measures will be 'Progress 8', but I don't know whether schools will still be publishing their headline A*-C inc Maths and English figures and if so, whether it would be the 4 or 5 that counts. Anyone else know?

"The reasoning was that CSE commercial arithmetic was what employers wanted not maths. I think to some extent that is true (obviously not for engineers or scientists) and a numeracy / arithmetic qualification would be a valid option."
Interestingly that's pretty much what we're getting here in Wales - DD (currently Yr 9) will take two Maths GCSEs, one regular maths, and one maths (numeracy). As I understand it the plus side is some pupils will just take maths (numeracy) which will be more appropriate for them, the negative is that others will end up studying more maths content in the same lesson time which will be good for higher achievers but maybe difficult for the middle pupils.

What I also don't know is what difference it'll make to Welsh dc coming out of the system that they still have letter grades when England is all numbers.
Just to add to the joys of it all round here, the county is in the middle of a full on reorganisation of the secondary schools. At least - for now - it appears that dd's school isn't going to get the full complement of another school's pupils joining them next year (in the same buildings!).

RhodaBull

That is teachers talking about your child.

For some children it is fantastic that they will be stretched and enjoy that stretching and will have less of a jump when they move on to A Levels.

That's fine if you are that child and that parent. As teachers we are trying to get the best out of all children.

My example of the English was that if a child cannot access the content / doesn't understand the words then they have a higher mountain to climb. Reading something more modern (I am not an expert on English) may allow a child to understand the text and therefore allow them to analyse it.

A student I taught last year raised her maths predicted grade from F to an actual C bu attending before school lessons, after school lessons and Saturday morning lessons.

She earned that C, and a child of average intelligence with that amount of commitment should be able to earn a pass.

If you are going to rejig education surely you should have 3 starting points

1. what is best for the child (might be more than one type of school for different children)
2. what employers want in school leavers / apprentices
3. what universities want in applicants

Not what grown up public school boys remember from Eton.

"a child of average intelligence with that amount of commitment should be able to earn a pass"

I think you've really summed it up for me there, sashh. I really feel (especially with my employer hat on!) that maths/english in particular should be viewed very much like the driving licence. We expect that the vast majority of people - specific problems apart - will be able to pass the driving test, providing they put in the effort and time.

Surely the standard school leaver English/Maths qualifications should be the same - designed to get everyone to an agreed acceptable baseline, even if it takes some more time and effort to get there than others.

I guess the issue is whether you view exams as a method of 'certificating' that students have reached a certain skill level.

It seems to me that instead recent governments (not just the Tories) have viewed them instead as a method of sorting children by some kind of supposed innate ability level. If you want to use them that way, inevitably you have to have many - perhaps the majority - of children 'failing'.

At the moment we test for literacy and numeracy during the interview process. We aren't alone, a lot of employers are doing this.

If the 'pass' rate were to stay at 35%, it is possible that employers might just drop the 'good pass' criteria from their application criteria or accept level 4. I think the issue is where that pass rate increases with teachers getting to know the spec and expectations better. If there are enough applicants to sustain setting 5 as a minimum requirement, then those that were told that 4 was good enough in the first few years are going to get a bit of a shock. They might be better of resitting anyway.

IIRC a 2 tier maths GCSE, with a basic 'numeracy' version was one of the options on the table for England. For some reason they didn't go for it.

I teach MFL and the new GCSE is better than what we have now, without a doubt.

CA is soooo open to abuse and thus the goalposts move - if you don't bend the rules, well, everyone else is, so your students will suffer. So I reckon many many schools bend the rules. Or worse.

At least with the new spec everyone will be at the same starting point.

My concern is that expectations might be too high - the best students will not be able to produce in an exam the same level of French composition as the best students do in a CA. I fear it might take a year or two for that to settle down. Which is tough on anyone in year 9 or 8. (DS2 is in year 8)

I took a MFL GCSE at my advanced age last year, 30 years after I took my O Levels, so I have a first-hand pupil view!

Back in the 80s I can still remember the French exam, where you were given an essay title and had to write a short piece. It is burned on my memory that the title was "A tiger has escaped from the zoo..." continue. Much of my essay consisted of "Au secours!" There were two translation pieces - from and into - French, and one had no clue what would be in them. I also have German and Spanish O Levels, but I can't remember the exams at all although I suppose they were similar.

Anyway, last year I was surprised - although having experienced a little of ds going through GCSEs - to find that there was so much to learn off by heart. It was soooooo beneficial to those who had "helpful" teachers or parents and indeed those with an excellent memory. Then there was the speaking to be learnt off by heart (something I found very difficult!). I got an A* - but without really having to touch on a tenth of the grammar I learnt for O Level.