GCSE Predicted Grades

[CeciCC]

My DD1 is in Y10 and therefore just started prep for GCSE. Last Friday they were given their predicted grades for some subjects. She was very upset with some of them. For some of the creative subjects she was told that they used the sats results for predicting the grades. She is doing Art and Textiles and with Art she has been predicted a B, but all the work that she is being doing is 10/10 or 9/10 or A*/A. She can't comprehend how she has been predicted a B grade. Is this normal that after 3 years in school, they use SATS sat in Y6 for predicted grades, even for subjects not covered in SATS? I keep telling her that it doesn't matter the predicted grades, what it matters is the end grade after the exam... I am right aren't I? Or the predicted grade will have some weight on the exam final grade?

It's normal in the schools that I've worked in but, IME, not necessarily an accurate way of predicting grades. I teach history and although their grasp of English is important, so much is dependant on how hard pupils are prepared to work. I make a point of explaining this to all of my GCSE groups when giving out their predicted grades.

I also set personal targets with pupils which are recorded alongside their official predicted grades. These are arrived at based on the grade that pupils would like to aim for an my assessment of their grades in the subject in previous years (typically a grade higher than their predicted grades for higher achieving pupils). My focus when working with pupils is their personal target, rather than their official target which seems to keep them motivated and we have a high level of success at meeting these targets.

I'm sure if your DD raises her concerns with her teachers they will be able to reassure her that the predicted grade is in no way a limit to what she can achieve and that if she is willing to work hard, there is no reason why she shouldn't aim for a higher grade.

Target grades predicted using SATs data should not be used as targets for individuals and should not be shared with parents.

Because of how they work, a bright child who did well in KS2 will have high targets for PE and Art even if they are dyspraxic, which is just nonsense.

Similarly, a child who is less academic will have lower targets for PE and art even if they are particularly talented in that area.

It averages out over the year group, the targets can be used to see how the year group has done as a whole, but should never be applied to individuals because it doesn't take the actual child into account. Teachers should be predicting grades, not computers.

DD has high predicted grades, and her achievements are only graded as good as she can not go above them, meaning her work will never be excellent. Children who exceed predicted grades are excellent..... so doesnt make sense.

Thanks Twinkle. She was going to speak to a SLT member and ask about them.
I've been trying to tell her that predicted shouldn't be taken as final, and all will depend on the hard work from now until the exam day... but I am just her mum... so I don't know everything . The other thing is, she is afraid how her class mates will react... she has had the highest mark in history in her year.. A/A* in 2 assessments so far this year so she is predicted a B (following the same logic as the ART grade prediction) she'll be made to feel that she is not as "clever" as her friends.. (this are her words not mine) as her predicted grades a lower than theirs.
I have seen the other threat about predicted grades, and it's been very helpful in understanding how grades are "predicted".

It gets worse op, in sixth form they use GCSE results for predicted A level grades. Dd is waiting with bated breath. You would think they would base it on a terms work, and then make adjustments along the way.

Following on from Noble's comment, I'm not sure how it works in my school for subjects such as art. Our predicted grades for History are based on the English KS2 results which at least makes a little bit of sense but I don't know what they do in other, less related subjects.

It's a rubbish way, but is fairly standard, and is the way the Govt will measure schools, hence the schools using that system.

It's completely bonkers. DD is year 9 and has just had her predicted grades for GCSEs shown on her half termly progress report. All 5s and 6- which would be accurate based on her KS2 SATS (4a mostly with one level 5) but she's a late bloomer and had already exceeded some of these targets in year 8 including maths and more especially in art and DT which are her strong points.

DS's school adjusted their expectations after each year end so you had a much better idea of how he was actually doing and a more realistic target.

Does it depend on the type of school? DD's is a comp with around 300 intake each year whereas DS's was a SS grammar with only 115.

OP, my DD feels the same as your DD that the kids who've got much higher targets will think she's not as able, although I've told this isn't the case. But what I do know, I'm just her mum!

Thanks for all the replies. My DD feels much calmer now about her predicted Grades, and knows (thanks to you wise MNters) why they are a little be low, or lower than expected. Already her Art teacher, has told them that she will give them her target grades for each of them, so that make my DD happier.
Yes, Shelling, that is exactly what she was afraid of. I don't know that anyone had made any comment yet... and knowing my DD, not knowing means it hasn't happened. Hopefully it won't happen.