Waiting lists - is this position good or bad?!

[ImASecretTwigletNibbler]

We are no.17 on the waiting list for our preferred school and I have no idea whether that's good or bad! Is there any way of judging or is it just 'how long is a piece of string'?! (I know the list postitions can change, btw)

Are you in an area with high mobility or where many people go to private school?

Not many people go to private school but I've no idea about the mobility.

I think it's "how long is a piece of string?", sadly! It's so varibale from school to school. Certainly doesn't sound hopeless but neither is it almost definite. Could you ask someone with local knowledge? Maybe teachers/parents/head at your child's primary?

How big an intake is it? If, say two classes of 21, that sounds fairly hopeless, if much bigger perhaps less so. I imagine the school can tell you how many have got in from the list in the past

PAN is 350 - does that mean per year?

Yes, PAN is the number they normally admit in a year group - so that's a large school meaning number 17 on the list might well get in. My friend's DS go in from being number 20 initially on the list to a much smaller school - though in a catchment where quite a lot go private. Your best bet is to see if you can find any parents of children in older year groups who got places via the waiting list, or see if you get a friendly person on the phone at the LEA who may tell you how much the list typically moves for your particular school.