GCSE predicted grades, accurate or designed to keep the student working hard?

[MrsJoeHart]

Dd1 had her first report since she started GCSE's this year (year 10), I've wanted to post but am wary that it'll come across as boasting, but I'm genuinely confused by it all and as she's my first this is all new to me. She's is a highly regarded grammar school, but has never been top of the class and always just muddled along, in year 8 for example I was told she'd be in the bottom set for maths the following year. However she has a*'s for all her predicted grades baring one and that's an A.

Dd is surprised and so am I although I've obviously not said this to her. What I'm not sure about is how they come up with these predictions. Could it be that if they're in effect given a high target they think that the student will try harder and will be more likely to do well? Or is she doing better than we thought and likely to get mostly A*'s if she continues at the same level?

I'm neither boasting nor putting her down, but trying to get a realistic view. Parents evening isn't for a while and with dd, so it's not to easy to ask.

my ds told me there were based on sats results and the area we lived in.they are kind of ballparkish but can be adjusted by teachers so not set in stone.

If she's in a highly regarded grammar school then she really should be aiming for the top grades, top of the class or not!

The school will have computer generated targets for her based on ks2 SATs or CATs tests. These can be adjusted by the teacher into a more realistic predicted grade as necessary.

Round here the Gramma schools have places for less than the top 20%. Only one of DD2s primary class went and none of DD1s.

They really are the brightest and most motivated (have the most motivated parents)

They'd better get A/A* (as should DD2 who choose not to do the stupidly long days the grams would have meant)

grammar

If it is a Bucks Grammar, then about 25/30% go. Very many will get As and A*s but not all as there is a pecking order of grammars here!!! If you are in a very selective grammar, you would anticipate very few B grades! I do not think these grades are an accurate guide, however. Lots can happen in the next year and a half and predictions are often wrong, especially for A levels. However, I would be very pleased with this report but not think it is a tablet of uncontested wisdom. Just say well done and move on.

DD is predicted all A* he school predict on YELLIS scores and work completed.
I do wish they would stop this predicted grades though its not helpful and can make children rest on their laurels

We're not in Bucks, nor is it a super selective but it is in the top 20 for the country on average 8 children in year six get into local grammars. If anything dd is feeling additional pressure from the predicted grades rather than resting on her laurels. She/we are a bit gobsmacked, but if the predicted grades are a true prediction of how she's likely to perform then we might need to rethink the next few years. Thanks everyone for your help.

"but if the predicted grades are a true prediction of how she's likely to perform then we might need to rethink the next few years."

Can I ask why? At a grammar school most kids will be predicted mostly As- they have a selective intake and are geared up to get the grades. The maths sets are usually designed to make sure that as many get top grades as possible- my dd's school had 7 maths sets, but they got smaller as they go lower- the intention was to get as many As as possible, even in the "bottom" sets.

I think predicted grades and targets can be detrimental to some dcs education.
Just supposing without being precious that you have a dc who isn't exactly reaching their potential they receive a target for a C but you know very well that under the right circumstances this dc could make an A. This happened to both my dc, they wouldn't see it any different and were happy to work towards a C.

I teach yr 11 and the grades I have predicted for my group over the last 2 years have been based on their work and attitude in class, predicted grades from the other info we have (which in itself is based on tests done through the school) and, more recently, mock exams and controlled assessment which give me a better idea.

They go up and down a bit eg a C/D may move to a C etc.

But that means they had the wrong targets, morethan...........

I know at DDs 'comp' (edge of a grammar school area so we do lose some A/A* pupils) they have to be given 'aspirational' predicted grades. This is fucking Ofsted's orders.

At the beginning of Y10 these are based on y9 CATs and not a lot else as far as I can see. By Christmas of Y11 DD1's have been tempered by a bit of reality.

By these measures (and Ofsted's everyone must be above average nonsense) all grammar school pupils must be expected to get A/A*

If you google our local grammars results this is clearly not the case in reality.

Personally I think predicted grades are stupid for A-C grade DCs, they should simply be encouraged to do the best they can.

The only point they may be useful is targeting DCs on the C/D boundary as getting DCs to feel a C is in reach can open so many collage courses.

Predicted grades should be what the students will get if they carry on working as they are. Their target grade should be what they are capable of, if they work hard, revise well etc.

So the kid predicted a C who was capable of an A should have had a corresponding higher target which shows they were slacking off.

Still, teachers are stuffed. A challenging target and it's too much pressure on the kids. An easily achievable target and it's low expectations. No target and parents complaining that they don't know what their kids are going to get.

People also seem to confuse 'predicted grade' with 'what the student will actually get'. Predicting the future that accurately is impossible! It's about as accurate as asking what weight the student will be in 2 years time. We can look at the data and give statistical probabilities but we don't know if the student will then develop an addiction to Minecraft and Crunchies.

Curlew.

They had the right targets as far as the schools were concerned, they were predicted c's for these subjects and that's what they got.
I think everyone should aim for an A or A* if its available. But not all dc can see through the system and the reason for targets and predictions.
If you aim for an A* and you don't quite get there you have an A or a B. If you aim for a C, especially if predicted and you don't quite get there it could have far worse consequences.
I have learnt now and this is what I tell dd.

Morethan- I don't think that would happen nowadays.

it is in the top 20 for the country on average

blimey. If you mean the top 20 out of how many thousands of schools then mostly A*s wouldn't surprise me as typical.

I am gleefully looking forward to DS's y10 predicted grades which will barely scrape into C (I predict). I don't know what else might motivate him to realise he isn't working hard enough.

What Monet3 said.

Predictions may be made for each subject based on YellIS test, in some cases upped by half a grade to give them something to strive for.

CAT3 tests, especially if done in Year 7, are likely to be less accurate in their predictions.

Curlew my ds2 is only 19 it happened throughout his A levels, GCSE's and ds1s before him. My friends dc are going through this now.
I believe that targets are counter productive and everyone should have the highest grade available as a target.

So ime and imo the answer to the OP is they are neither realistic nor do they encourage dc to work harder.