I have the same problem, MrsS,
except that it's hard to restrict to 3 schools as I have no real sense of what is "probable" for DS - and his school are not helpful, simply because they have so few parents going on to indies so they just don't have the experience.
State pirmary, the head just doesn't know the independent system, so have no idea if, say, Dulwich is "probable" or "aspirational".
We all think our DCs are bright don't we: and indeed comparing him to his peers ini primary he is: he is top table but at a very mixed primary - getting level 5s at end of year 5 and with a short of level 6 certainly in maths by end of year 6 - so by national measures "bright". But I know that this is comparing apples and pears when comparing to his prep school friends (who call all speak fluent Latin
).
Just how do you know?
So am left with one "aspirational", one or two "probables" (but perhaps they are aspirational too), one back-up (but who knows perhaps that was really only a "probable" and he might mess it up on the day.
So really I am no wiser, cannot help you much, but only share the predicament!