I'm intrigued by our mention of Raiseonline. I use this as a tool, but just as something that churns out data, nothing else. So I don't know how it works.
My understanding is that raisonline is just anonymous data. So it might tell us that we have 50 children entering on a L3 from primary, 24 girls and 26 boys, 32 are on the SEN register, 38 are eligible for FSM, etc.
What is data used for?
The data from primaries determines the initial setting. But we - in common with any decent school - will do our own rigorous baseline assessments very early on, and adjust sets appropriately. We also move children between sets over the years as required.
However, the KS2 data does play a part again when it comes to setting a GCSE target, because that is what we are measured against (cf Raiseonline, FFT etc). So if a child enters on a 4c and has had a disastrous KS3, with very poor attendance and little progress, and ended yr9 on L4a; they would still be set a GCSE target of grade C and would be pushed/supported to attain this if at all possible.
If a child entered on a 3a (but really should have got a 4a), they may end yr9 on, say L6a. According to KS2 SATs, they "have" to get at least a grade D. But as they are on L6a already, we would set them a target of +2 levels, which would be a grade B. The only difference between them and a student who "actually" got a L4 from primary, is that if their predicted grade slipped to a grade C, our intervention strategies would not kick in quite so drastically, because for them a C would be 4 levels of progress already (which is "good" in Ofsted-speak.)
Hope that all helps.
What is your concern?