Likely progression from Year 9 target levels to GCSEs

[teacherwith2kids]

DS (Year 7) has just had a report with Y9 target levels on.... which all seem fine, btw, I'm not concerned, and he is on or above target in all subjects so there doesn't seem to be anything to worry about.

However, is there a 'standard' way of extrapolating from these targets to likely target GCSEs? I know that it will all depend on progress over the intervening years, but I would find it useful to have some idea.

I think generally it is 5s aiming for grade C, 6s grade B and 7/8 A/A*, but it depends on the subject. For example, ds does German and only started studying it in Year 8 so level will obviously be lower. I think he was a low 6 in Year 9, however he is now Year 10 and has a GCSE target grade of A.

We got a letter from school with the key stage 3 levels on it and it reckons that a child working at key stage 3 levels 8a to 9b would get a GCSE A grade (either A-/A/A+A*

Level 7b-8b is equivalent to a B or C
Level 6b-7c is equivalent to a C or D
Level 5b-6c is equivalent to a D or E
Level 3a-5c is equivalent to a E or F
Level 2b-3b is equivalent to a F or G

It goes on to say that they can't be used to predict GCSE grades, they just mean that a child working at a level 6a in Key Stage 3 is producing GCSE grade C standard work.

I'm pretty sure that only maths goes up to level 8 in ks3 at the moment so not sure how your school are getting level 9b. perhaps the levels they are giving are for end of ks4 so equivalent levels to actual grade at GCSE.

They hadn't given level 9s in the report (and none of DD's peers got a level 9, 8 was the highest) but the list included them all - I expect it is used for all year groups.