I think if I'd been told 'I had a flair for the subject' in other areas it would have helped but take your point, Kez. I think what the teachers meant by 'flair' was genuine interest. Unfortunately, I thought I could only go so far in certain subjects. Being told I lacked a 'sense of logic that might come in time' didn't motivate me in the same way. Probably just the way I'm wired but I needed others and my teachers to 'believe' I really had the potential in order to exceed it.
Noblegiraffe I had your post in mind and take your point. The problem is that when it is 'statistically very unlikely' you are going to get an A at GCSE (and we know that about you at 11) I think this can be very counter productive and limiting. Your post was the trigger & got my thinking. I've seen many others who do take these early NC levels as strong indicators of future ability and potential.
IME it leads teachers to believe that certain children are just not academically up to par enough for the top grades, 'you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear' as is oft repeated on Mumsnet. This is what the majority believe, including teachers, IME.
I went to a KS2 maths talk and the hand-outs were shot through with references to those predicted a low level 4 at the end of the key stage etc. It was expected that this group would use far easier methods than those more intellectually gifted. As it's statistically so unlikely those predicted a low level 4 are going to do anything to surprise anyone they're not as likely to make huge strides forward IME. Such strides are, after all, extremely unlikely & most assume will happen only due to a serious work ethic rather than a developing cognitive ability that will put them up there with the academic cream.
Our large state primary sets for maths in KS2. The top sets work at a deeper level, extend the children sideways and cover the curriculum more rapidly. It's going to be very difficult for the middle to catch them, no one is expecting them to anyway as it's believed they don't have the same innate ability. Children were set at the end of KS1 on the level achieved at this point. The bar and expectations for the level 3Cs in maths was set much higher than for the others. These are your future As and A*s 'statistically'. The die is cast...