Low CAT scores - is this an indicator of potentially poor GCSE results?

[Tellmemore]

I've received dd's CAT score results.

Quite bluntly, they're not great. Very low end of average.

I've always assumed dd to be roughly average in terms of academic attainment. She got pretty average SAT scores (4b's/4a's) and most of her baseline assessments in highschool are within the 4's (4.1 / 4.5 / 4.9) with lower results for MFL, which I assume to be because it's a new subject.

I have been told that the CATs are a good predictor of GCSE results and I'm worried that dd isn't going to acheive decent grades.

Is it true that a low CAT result usually means poor GCSE's ...and more importantly, what, if anything, can I do to help her change her 'path'?

Statistically, yes, a low CAT result would predict a poorer outcome at GCSE, but that's on average. A student with a low CAT result can achieve higher than predicted grades as motivation, effort, behaviour, parental support and quality of teaching also play a part in educational success.

I think noblegiraffes answer is correct. If it is any consolation to you, my DD1 who is now in Y10 had pretty catastrophic CATs in Y7 on entry to secondary school, but she is on target now for OKish results - Bs and Cs (lets forget about the possible E for PE!!) Tbh it was a terrible shock to me - she is dyslexic, but I never thought she was 'thick' in academic terms. She's not in the least bit thick, but her path in life is unlikely to be traditionally academic.

The way it was explained to me is that the CAT score is a base line level of innate intelligence, but does not allow for any of the factors noblegiraffe mentioned, like motivation, work ethic, parental support etc. So she might not play basketball for the New York Yankees, but in the netball equivalent terms, she'll probably, with a bit of luck, hard work and a fair wind, come out with the magic 5 A-Cs inc English and Maths (plus some more).

Noblegiraffe offers good advice. I think CAT scores are more useful for spotting underachievers. So a child with average results elsewhere and a very high CAT score would be cause for concern.

CAT scores are generally used to find kids who are underachieving compared to their baseline 'intelligence'. They are supposed to be more indicative of intelligence than prior attainment at KS2 which could have been affected by the quality of teaching, cramming for the SATs, absence from school etc. From what I've seen in school the CAT scores do seem to roughly fall in line with the set the child is in and their KS2 attainment. Like anything else they are just one measure and they don't take into account anything like motivation and hard work. I had a boy in my top set chemistry whose CATs were low end of average and he worked very hard and came out with an A despite a predicted C. He also got an A for maths despite a prediction of a D. Overall he got 12 GCSEs at grades A and B. He worked incredibly hard, things didn't come easily for him but he overcame that.