Manifesto analysis

[Bearnese]

Can I just highlight the Institute for Fiscal Studies excellent analysis of manifestos it does prior to every election? They’ve only looked at Reform’s manifesto for the forthcoming Scottish elections so far and it made entertaining if unsurprising reading.

https://ifs.org.uk

Analysis on the others will no doubt follow after publication. I saw a snippet somewhere yesterday that suggested the Greens were offering to double the Scottish child payment so I imagine their manifesto will get equally mauled.

And for those not aware the IFS is hugely respected internationally for its impartiality. Expect a robust filleting of every political party’s promises.

We need more of this in public life in my opinion. Economic facts stripped of political adornment.

SNP:

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/initial-response-snps-manifesto

In short, their spending money they don’t have, and the price cap on food is very questionable indeed.

Greens. Spending money they don’t have and making the UK’s most damaging tax (stamp duty) even more damaging:

ifs.org.uk/articles/initial-response-scottish-greens-manifesto

Labour:

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/initial-response-scottish-labour-manifesto

Not doing anything massively exciting but at least they’re not promising to spend money they don’t have.

Tories: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/initial-response-scottish-conservatives-manifesto

Unaffordable tax cuts

I think the Lib Dem’s are yet to come.

Thanks for posting these @Bearnese .

I've read all of the manifestos and the IFS analyses and it makes me so cross that so many people will just take what is in the manifestos at face value and not question whether they are actually affordable (or deliverable - SNP batshit food price cap I'm looking at you).

The SNP KNOW how bad Scotland's finances are, know there's already a huge black hole in 27/28 but are proposing £1.4bn of extra spending. Where exactly do they think the money is coming from??

Abolishing a few public bodies won't even scratch the surface. So the ONLY answer is higher taxes or swathing cuts elsewhere.

And BTW your TL:DR summaries are spot on.

All of the glossing over of the fact that the promises are absolute nonsense really annoys me. We’re not idiots. Don’t treat us as though we are.

We’re not idiots. Don’t treat us as though we are.

Unfortunately there are a lot of voters who ARE idiots. Or who at least have zero interest in exploring deeper into promises. Like the SNP's ridiculous idea of capping food prices - that is going to resonate with a lot of voters who are struggling and they will not care or think about whether it's achievable, or what other things will have to be shelved to afford it. Many people are not particularly engaged, and will not read manifestos.