Hamilton election

[tammienorrie]

Labour 31.6% (down 2% since last Scottish election)
SNP 29.4% (down 16.8%)
Reform 26.1% (up 26.1%)
Conservative 6% (down 11.5%)
Green 2.6% (up 2.6%)
Lib Dem 2% (down 0.8%)

Reactions? Bit of a shocker really as Swinney has been telling us for a week it's a straight fight between SNP and Reform and Labour are nowhere and that's clearly not the case. Rise of Reform a real concern as they are clearly taking some of the voters who would previously have voted Conservative AND a good chunk of the SNP vote. This is something the SNP has really not addressed at all.

So looking forward to the Scot parliament election next year I am thinking probably no overall control, Labour single biggest party but with a fair number of Reform MPs too. Would be delighted to see SNP taking a kicking although I'm sure their bots will be on shortly saying these sorts of elections are always a blip yadda yadda yadda.

Interested in your source for switch from SNP to Reform. Curtis reported figures this morning on Tories to Reform and Labour to Reform but I didn't see the SNP switch figures.

I like the idea of a minority led Scottish parliament. Not at all keen on Reform though.

But the figures speak for themselves surely? Even if Reform didn't stand at the last 2021 election, SNP share is down 16.8% and Conservative down 11.5%, and Reform up 26%. The other parties' vote has held fairly static, within 2%.

So the Reform voters have to be a mix of people who voted Conservative or Reform at the last election. I know there isn't an exact crossover between UK and Scot Parliament elections in terms of constituency, those figures were from the BBC website. Will see if I can find figures as compared with general election last July...

Oh wait. This WAS a Scot Parliament election. Duh.

Is there a typo in your 2nd paragraph?

Is there a typo in your 2nd paragraph?

Yes. I'm not doing very well this morning. Reform vote a mix of Conservative and SNP previous voters.

This is what happens when we've had a shit gvmnt for the past 15 or so years. It's all on Sturgeon and her eeeerrmm cohorts.
The SNP really need a good political kicking but reform is not the way to go!

Curtis who is an polling expert says 1 in 6 Labour voters have switched to Reform. I presume he means from last general election. Still interested in figures for SNP to Reform.

Anyway happy Labour and SNP were in the top two spots. I have liked how both are governing in Scotland and UK generally.

It’s pretty interesting. I hadn’t considered how many snp voters would move to reform but seeing it happen, it make sense. I’m a traditional Tory voter and although I prefer the sound of Reform to what the tories have offered in recent years I’m not sure I could bring myself to vote for them. I’m really interested to see a result somewhere with a stronger Tory vote.

It’s the excitement!

I dislike Reform and all it stands for intensely. The comments Farage made about Anas Sarwar were pure racism.

I just think it's interesting that while the SNP peddle the lines of immigration being good, Scotland being diverse and tolerant, high tax and lots of public services, there are clearly a lot of their voters who disagree with much of that.

I’m not sure there’s as much of a switch from the SNP to reform as it seems.

Labour, although victorious, have also saw a drop in vote share compared to the most recent elections there (Westminster by and general).

Also a lot of Tory votes would have gone to Labour, Conservative voters in Scotland tend to be a lot more centrist so are less likely to run to Reform.

Strange though it sounds, many of these voters having realised the Tories have no chance would vote for Unionist party that isn’t reform.

Especially as Starmer’s policies are arguably similar to centrist/left Conservative ones, they wouldn’t vote for Corbyn but most of Keir’s policies could easily have come from Cameron or Rory.

Also don’t underestimate the impact the Tories choosing a candidate who is openly in the Orange Order had, not only would this disillusion half of their voters it would also encourage others to vote tactically.

In reality that was a cynical attempt to encourage the hardline Unionist vote, but didn’t work because Reform already claimed that instead.

It’s an interesting result but there are too many factors at play to use it as a predictor for the next elections.

Agree that it's complex and there is lots going on. But even the most devoted SNP fan can't argue it's a good result.

People are voting for change. The SNP have been in power for a long time in Scotland now and have actually delivered little of relevance to ordinary working people. Lots of headline catching policies which don’t make a big difference to most people who actually want shorter NHS waiting lists, improved education and quality jobs.
They’ve spent a lot of time and money on policies which are unpopular with the ordinary person on the street. I don’t think the people of Scotland are as “progressive” in the direction SNP gov would like them to be.
I reckon the voting public are now looking around to see what others have to offer

I am totally done with the SNP. I have voted for them in the past but they have totally fucked up Education. They also keep coming up with ridiculous policies they think make them look progressive, but are ill-considered and just imposed top-down on people. Apart from independence, I don’t know what they have to offer. I want them gone.

I'm sure we'll see it in the run up to the next Holyrood election but it would be interesting to see a poll of the top 3 issues for Scottish voters. I'd bet my house it'll be cost of living, the NHS, education, jobs, roads, wider international issues like Russia and Trump.

Not independence. I am not hearing people talk about this issue in the same way as immediately post-IndyRef, it's starting to become a fringe issue, something for the back burner while people worry about the basics of educating their kids and keeping a job.

I think there’s been a narrative peddled, in a somewhat superior sort of way, that Scottish voters would never go for a party like Reform.
Given the right set of circumstances I simply don’t think that’s the case any more. Its many of the same issues people are facing here which led to Reform gaining in popularity in other areas of UK.
If political parties stop listening to what ordinary voters want, because it’s doesn’t fit the direction they want to go in, someone else will come along and fill that space

Could I ask who you would go to rather than SNP and would you support independence? As a Tory voter, so we will likely have many polarising views and iv wondered where people on the other side of the fence feel it’s best to go

It's very likely that labour will do well at the next holyrood election. If Sarwar can create enough clear water between Scotland and England they will do very well. Expect reform to do well especially in the list nominees (unless they continue to torpedo themselves).

It’s nowhere near a good result for the SNP.

There are two factors to consider though.

1. The utterly bizarre decision by the Tories to select a candidate affiliated to the Orange Order.

2. The fact that many centrist Tory voters would vote tactically for the least worst open to them, they are too centrist to vote for Farage and too Unionist to vote for SNP, knowing Labour had the best chance then there would be a vote switch there.

If one or both of these factors persuaded 1.2% of voters to vote for Labour instead of Tory then this result (especially the whole orange order factor) could be an outlier.

There’s also the by-election factor that makes it harder for the party in power.

There’s no doubt it’s a blow to the SNP, but it’s not quite the death blow that some are making it out to be.

Ironically it may help them in the main election, they’ve had a pilot run which has tested their message and policies, so know what needs to be changed to catch-up that 1.2%.

And if Reform and the conservatives had joined forces, which I think they will have done by the next general election, they would have won.

Also suspect that Reform-led councils down south will have demonstrated how stupid and mindless their policies are, and Farage will keep imploding every professional relationship he develops. Hopefully being in actual power will take the wind out of their racist sails.

Yes, I would doubt they can keep up the momentum they have just now for the next 4 years until the GE without exposing themselves.

The phrase ‘Give them enough rope’ comes to mind.

SNP need to be wiped out. They have systemically destroyed education and health provision for Scotland. Higher taxation which is being spent on who knows what e.g. baby boxes, free prescriptions but it’s not in the places it should be.
However, we do not need Reform running the country, that would be terrible for different reasons.

Agreed. SNP have run this country into the ground but Reform is not the answer.

People are voting Reform - like the y voted Brexit - because they think the main parties aren’t listening to and addressing their concerns.

Agreed, and if the unfortunate happens and Reform get in those who voted will start complaining about the unintended consequences, and it will be Brexit all over again.