Are Scottish COVID19 rates really 5x lower than the U.K.?

[Y0uCann0tBeSer10us]

The UKSA suggests they might not be.

From the article: “On its claim that prevalence of the virus is five times lower than in England, the Scottish Government said the figure was based on “upper prevalence estimates” for Scotland published by its own statisticians, which was then compared with separate Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

However, Jamie Jenkins, a former head of health analysis at the ONS, said the comparison was “not ideal” as different methodology had been used for both numbers.

The Scottish figure was based on an epidemiological model, while the statistics for England was based on sample testing of a small number of people, meaning a wider estimated range for infection rates.

Statisticians generally caution against making comparisons when different methodology has been used, and it remains unclear why the Scottish Government used the upper rather than central estimates in its comparisons.

Mr Jenkins said: “I think it would be better and fairer for the Scottish Government to compare their number to the same number for England using a similar epidemiological model.””

Also from the article: “The Scottish Conservatives said the latest ONS data actually suggested 0.025 per cent of people had the virus in England. On Wednesday, Ms Sturgeon claimed the figure for Scotland was 0.028 per cent.” Without comparing like for like it’s hard to know, but rates might not be that different after all.

At best this is a dodgy use of statistics, at worst a cynical attempt to deflect from failings by trying to suggest the Scottish ‘method’ is so much more successful.

Like politicians and newspapers?

Yes exactly. And MN posters. Myself probably included.

Like politicians and newspapers?

Yes exactly. And MN posters. Myself probably included.

Myself probably included.

No "probably" required :o

Did you look into the Independent Sage group you quoted earlier? Just 'cos something says it's independent, it aint necessarily so.

As I said on another thread, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Just because something or someone has proven to be right in one scenario, doesn't mean they always are.

That's not in reference to anything in particular on this thread, just an observation on life.

There's really no need to be so arsey is there?

You talk a good game about critical thinking but it's very clear that actually you're actually only interested in what fits with your world view so that's fine. You carry on.

I'm sure the independent SAGE has flaws and bias as does the 'real' one.

FFS i wasn't being arsey, I was having a conversation - or so I thought but that's okay, you crack on...I'm done. I sincerely hope you aren't actually a teacher.

And again. Why go so low? Och well. It was interesting to a point!

This board really has become quite unpleasant.

It is an example of why devolution has failed. The whole country should have been implementing the same rules. Different sets of politicians simply confused and irritated people.

Another example is coming - Prestwick is reporting full Ryanair flights to Spain. In theory the Scottish government is insisting on maintaining quarantine for returning Spanish holidaymakers. I think that is the point when civil disobediance will kick in.

I agree that the COVID crisis has laid bare the weaknesses of devolution, more so in a situation where the devolved party (Scottish government) doesn’t want to be part of the U.K. and uses all its power to make Scotland different and move it away from Westminster. I thought it was striking early on in the epidemic that all of the politicians were on the same page and NS even swallowed the urge to criticise Westminster - that was when I knew that the situation was serious. We’re back to the usual sniping now though.

I also wonder how many of those returning from Spain will actually quarantine for two weeks, or whether this will be policed at all. I don’t see Police Scotland having the resources to do that tbh.

Very grateful the Scottish Government has been similar to Northern Ireland and Wales in having a public health strategy which aims to eliminate Covid as much as is possible within the powers they have.
I would be very worried if we did not have devolution and were all under the full control of Britain's Trump who no doubt sees Covid as an inconvenience or perhaps as a positive politically as he can blame the absolutely disastrous impact that no deal Brexit will have on the economy.
I cannot understand how people see devolution as negative and would rather we were all under Boris' ( Cumming's?) full control.

I don’t think devolution per se is a bad thing, but I do think that for it to work both parties (Westminster and the devolved assemblies) need to be broadly on the same page and working towards the same goal. In Scotland we currently have a government that is not content with the areas of devolved responsibility it has (and which the Scottish assembly was designed to administer) and instead uses a large chunk of its time and powers emphasising Scotland’s ‘differentness’ from the U.K. with an ultimate goal of separating completely, which doesn’t work so well.

MumofHunter Wales has "excess death" figures similar to the South West of England and much lower than Scotland. (2k for a popn of 3.2m versus Scotland's 4.8k for a population of 5m)

London has similar relative low incidence to Scotland now (has been showing in PHE hospital death figures for weeks) probably for similar reasons that they were hit relatively harder early on.

I definitely think the fact our peak was behind England and therefore our lockdown was de facto sooner definitely helped. That and more caution in opening up. We are definitely doing better than England. Our deaths speak for itself. Is NS politicising it? Most definitely. But ultimately although I don’t like the SNP I’ll support anything that gets us more back to normal sooner.

Senga RTFT. Our deaths are not lower despite our peak being slightly behind London it was equally steep. Looking at regional differences and the creep of death stats up the country it actually looks like lockdown and/or its timing made very little difference. Scotland "caught up" first probably due to predominance of airport travel and relative interconnectedness of Central Belt, and Midlands (Birmingham etc) and North West (Manchester etc) followed after. Other areas are slightly less predictable probably due to geography and demographics.

The problem with all of this is that "England" isn't a massive whole with the same rates across the country. LOndon was really badly affected, just like other major cities like New York and Turin. Hardly surprising, lots of people crammed in together and using public transport.

But look at somewhere like Somerset/Devon/Cornwall and the rates are probably very similar to Scotland - one not very big city, lots of rural living.

Each country also counts cases and deaths differently, deaths as a consequence of Covid is not the same as someone who tested positive and the died.

www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

That spike in infections in Glasgow is making me nervous, that’s quite high for a weekend figure. The number of people tested each day is roughly stable at around 3.5k so it doesn’t look like a data artefact. Let’s see if a similar trend is seen in today’s data.

SockYarn It's incorrect to compare Scotland to Devon /Somerset/Cornwall. We have the 3rd biggest city in the UK and the vast majority of Scotland's population live in the Central Belt which is no less densely populated than most of England.

*should read most of England's more populous areas.

hat spike in infections in Glasgow is making me nervous, that’s quite high for a weekend figure

There was a statistician posting a FB group about this - it's something to do with changes in recording/reporting and double testing. I think if you're tested in a drive through place, and then tested again at hospital, it counts as two cases even though it's the same person.

the vast majority of Scotland's population live in the Central Belt which is no less densely populated than most of England.

I was going to make this point. Although our population density is low, this isn't because we all live in an individual acre, most of us live in a very similar type of density as most English people. Much of Scotland is barely populated at all.

We will have to agree to disagree on whether her announcements are political, I think she’s trying to paint the English as an incompetent/dangerous population Scotland needs to protect itself from with an eye on next year’s election and, of course, the Indy cause.

And you are just trying to politicise something that is a public health issue. Anything to denigrate the Scots and the SNP. Dammit! I bet if NS said the sun shines out of Boris Johnson's arse and England was the the New Jerusalem people would moan it was her "banging on about independence".

I don't think the English government need much help at portraying themselves as incompetent.