Website has given me total cold feet about buying a house

[KoalaSar]

We've been in our current house for 12 years - it's ok but we've outgrown it since having two children.

Been watching rightmove for about 2 years in anticipation of moving next year. Been researching areas etc.

And then....I found this website called housepricecrash.co.uk and I looked at the graphs and the forum and now I'm really worried that house prices will bomb in the next two years.

eg, the public sector apparently employs over 50% of the workforce. With huge cuts planned - job losses etc....

Now I'm not so sure about moving.

Why don't we all just refuse to pay the ridiculous selling price and offer 30% lower? Surely prices would then correct?

The problem seems to be that lots of people bought over-priced houses and can't afford to sell for a loss - if you buy thier house at an inflated price then surely you are paying for their mistake?

What do youa ll reckon?

Sorry, it can't be right that the public sector employs 50% of the workforce. I know two people who are in the public sector, and I know, like, way more than 4 people

These numbners are from 2004 so, they aren't totally up to date, but they won't have changed that much. Says 1 in 5 which seems more reasonable (tho, I do know more than 10 people total... so maybe my logic isn't the best). www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=1292

If you are planning on being in your next house for the another 12 years I wouldn't worry too much about what happens in the next 2. Think longer term and see how you feel.

Also, you don't have to offer asking price. We are getting about 15% off the house we are about to buy, and our buyers are getting 5% off. I have no idea what will happen to the market but we won't be moving again after we get this next place...

It is right Sparky - infact it is 52% to be precise!

I've been reading housepricecrash for years and there is a lot of interesting talk on there. I read predictions about the credit crunch at least a year before it actually happened! Personally, I think house prices have to fall further because they are still overpriced and way over the benchmark of 3x average salary.

However, I think you should do what is right for you and your family irrespective of what happens to house prices. If you think you couldn't cope with buying something bigger and having larger repayments or being in NE, then stay put. However, if you find a house you really like at a good price then you should go for it.

Housepricecrash have been predicting a housing crash since about 2001. And we all know there was a massive boom from 2001 to 2007.

I wouldn't listen to anything that housepricecrash says on this - they have a fixed view and pick out only the bits of information that support it.

In fact I actually do believe that prices in London and the southeast are going to fall (a bit) in the next couple of years. However I'm looking to buy a place at the moment anyway - why? because I want to get on with my life and intend to stay there long enough that any short term price movements won't be relevant.

Ha ha minipie - housepricecrash, you either love it or you hate it!! Glad you agree prices are going down though - even though we are also buying a house at the moment

You have to look at what will cause a 50% crash in house prices, masses of repossessions and two things will stop those.
Firstly after the last crash, Mortgage Protection Insurance was practically a term and condition of the mortgage from 1994 to 2002 when lending became looser and secondly the government will pay peoples mortgage up to £200k for 2 years if they loose their jobs. Even if your mortgage is £400k the banks will not move to repossess if you are paying half the interest, the courts wouldn't grant it.
And as several of the banks are owned by the government, neither Labour not the Conservatives want to be the party that turfed millions out on to the street.
I don't think there will be any increases for the next 5-10 years and that will mean a relative crash if wages increase, which I doubt they will, but in 10 years time the whole cycle will start off again.

But if you already own a house, won't you be affected by a crash in prices in any case?

You would be affected if moving up the ladder on the basis that 25% of £200k is more than the 25% you'd loose on £100k house you're selling.

houseprivecrash seems to be full of bitter people who sold up to rent thinking they could then buy at rock bottom prices. In fact, most seemed to sell up too early so missed out on the boom and are now willing a crash.

Buy because you want a house and can afford it, not to play the market, which is what housepricecrash site seems to be about.

Hmm interesting. Yes, it does seem to be full of bitter people!

Our house is worth about £300k (of which we have about £130k in equity). We want to trade up but the next step up the ladder takes us to about £450k - £550k so it's a significant increase.

I know a few people selling houses that aren't shifting. Our neighbouring house sold in 2 weeks (it's the same as ours and I know they got £298k on an asking price of £305k) - on the other hand, there's a bloke I know who's trying to flog a really grotty ex-council house for £200k just because it's close to the village centre. He's just reduced it from £230k but I still think it's worth more like £140k - housepricecrash seems to be saying there are lots of deluded people out there who think their house is really worth what the estate agents are quoting - and they can't afford to reduce the price because, obviously, they bought at the peak.

Their grphs are interesting - esp the one about the housing bubble.

We are those bitter people who sold at the bottom and rented. Not to play the market, but because we were expecting a baby and needed to relocate. Our vendor pulled out at the last minute so we were forced to rent.

Everyone told us we were in a really strong position as we were cash buyers and the market would continue its downward spiral.

Obviously it didn't.

However, I can't see how this house rally can continue as it is purely driven by lack of supply. We have been bid on 3 houses in the last 12 months, which all went to sealed bids.

And they are the only 3 houses in our price bracket that have been suitable.

But the number of buyers with a 25% deposit lying around has to dry up sooner or later, and then the prices will fall or (as currently) the number of transactions will fall off a cliff.

However, it is all irrelevant and anyone who says they can predict what will happen is lying. We would buy a house tomorrow if we could only bloody well find one because we want a home.

You read on the site too about how they can't afford to buy a house but when you actually dig a little deeper they can, but think they are worth more than a 2 bedroomed flat because they are educated professionals , mainly in IT.
Everyone has to start somewhere.
I would say be very wary of that site, we were idiots and sold in 2005 at a rock bottom price, conned by the estate agent and their mortgage advisor really, but egged on by housepricecrash that we should sell now before the world ended, very stupid in retrospect but it's easy to believe the graphs etc.
We're now back in the same position we were in 2005 but 4 years older and thankfully wiser.

No, sorry, 52% is just not correct. Not even close. 22% maybe.

It was 20.4% in 2005

Sorry SparkyUK - It is 52% of the working population employed by the public sector (in Newcastle it is 75%).

Sorry, but it is REALLY NOT 52%. Here are some actual stats. Just over 6 million people work in the UK public sector. There are about 29 million people currently employed, and about 38 million in the workforce.

Would love to know where numbers like 52 and 75 come from.

Office for National Statistics is always a good start and here is an article where they have broken it down by region in the Times.

"Regional variations show that Northern Ireland employs the highest percentage of public sector staff, with 29 per cent working for the State. In Wales 23.6 per cent of employees work in the public sector, while in Scotland this is marginally less at 22.5 per cent... But the proportion drops considerably farther south. Only 17 per cent of the workforce are public sector staff in the South East, the East and the East Midlands, and 18.9 per cent in London. " etc etc

And if you are as big a nerd as I am, then this pdf report might prove intersting. And it comes out quarterly - woo hoo!

This argument is set to run and run - Jeremy Vine said on BBC2 today that the state sector employs over 50% of the workforce.

No idea where he's getting that figure. I read the original quote in the Telegraph.

How weird!