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Original poster

Property pundits - where do you think the market is going next?

105 replies

slackrunner · 26/04/2009 08:34

Our house has just gone under offer (hurrah) - I was having a quick peek on Rightmove today and have noticed that others locally have also sold in the past couple of weeks.

Have we reached the bottom of the market, or is this just a spring blip and it has further to fall?

OP posts:
jeanjeannie · 30/04/2009 10:16

Not sure anyone really knows what the average house price is. If the Despatches prog on TV last night is to be believed and we're heading for the worst crash since the 30s then I don't see how prices can hold their value.

Rising interest rates will be another hurdle when it happens....and it will have to happen eventually

lljkk · 30/04/2009 12:08

I've heard figures of £157k or £225k for avg. asking price. You can check what Land Registry says for avg. selling price last quarter.
Taxes must go up.
NI is already scheduled to go up.
Unemployment is rising fast.
Not good omens.

goldenpeach · 30/04/2009 16:34

Latest irritating news... My DP has lots of talks with estate agents and one admitted that a detached four bed house in so-so area of Oxford going for a ridiculous price (like 30 per cent on top of 2008 prices) and which has been on the market for nearly a year is not worth viewing as sellers are not in a rush to sell and they want to reach the asking price. Beggars belief. Another estate agent told him that they did show articles about the recession to some sellers but they still insisted on top asking prices (higher than previous year). For some people the recession is only in the nasty buyers' mind and they don't care that we buyers cannot borrow enough to buy their overpriced houses. And to add insult to injury these houses always need refurb.

jeanjeannie · 30/04/2009 17:57

Oooo, you want to come to Buckinghamshire....they're dropping like stones - even in the really ultra-posh parts! Two friends have knocked almost 35% off 5 bed properties. I just watch! I'm sure the sellers will realise the mess the country is in eventually

noddyholder · 30/04/2009 18:29

My parents bought a lovely house in 2007 with pool on a cliff top with stunning views.They spent about 60k on it nothing structural purely decor as it was in good condition but shabby.They had it valued this yr and it is on the markey at what they paid for it originally but no takers.

GrendelsMum · 30/04/2009 19:59

My prediction:

all houses will fall dramatically in value.

Except mine, which will continue to rise and rise and rise and ...

1dilemma · 01/05/2009 00:11

SO my 2000 comment doesn't look so outlandish to some.....
Twinset there is a thread asking about you people are wondering how you're doing.

Prob is a lot of people wiht their property on the market don't 'need' to sell they just fancy some of the 2007/2008 prices before it gets too late (eventually they will wake up to reality and take their property off until they change/loose jobs have another baby etc etc)

Meanwhile those you need to sell drop their price to meet the market thereby dragging the price down for everyone else and on it goes.

Original poster
slackrunner · 14/05/2009 20:03

Sorry to resurrect this but I need some soothing words from property naysayers and also someone to tell me to get a grip .

Bit of history - we accepted an offer on our house at probably 20 - 25% under what it was worth at the peak. I'm happy with that - I feel that that is realistic in the current market. Now a house around the corner has gone on the market for just under our peak price . It does have a bigger garden, but apart from that there is no difference - both ours and theirs has had considerable work done. In fact - the price is £25K more than their next door neighbours house went for in Jan 08!

I can't believe the market is going to shoot back up again, but still feeling marginally nervous seeing the price they're asking....DH is calm - he says 'well, it hasn't sold yet has it'. LOL.

OP posts:
Tinker · 14/05/2009 20:06

Well, exactly, it's not sold.

Original poster
slackrunner · 14/05/2009 20:08

I know, I know Tinker....

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Sorrento · 14/05/2009 20:14

Our house was "valued" at £70k more than we paid for it in 2007, if some fool wants to pay that, brilliant but i'm not going to hold my breath.
Do you "have" to move ?

Original poster
slackrunner · 14/05/2009 20:17

Yep - fraid so. DD has CP, and our house is a lovely, but totally unpractical, 3 storey Victorian townhouse

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Sorrento · 14/05/2009 20:19

Oh .... yes we had one of those with three babies under 4, you can imagine. Shame because for a couple they are fantastic.
Have you got a good deal from the next house, a similar drop ?

Original poster
slackrunner · 14/05/2009 20:40

Still looking. We're doing a 2nd viewing on Sat, but the house is on with Knight Frank (rhymes with ) so I'm not expecting that they will take a 10% reduction . Having said that - it's been on the market for 6 months, and only dropped 7% in that time (and I sense it was ridiculously over-priced to start with)

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Sorrento · 14/05/2009 22:38

Well I certainly wouldn't take the hit on mine without screwing the new house down by a comparable amount, it just couldn't work that way for us, maybe your situation is different or maybe you need to offer a fair price and be prepared to walk away if they will not drop another 15% because really they should.

Elibean · 15/05/2009 09:48

Good luck slackrunner

FWIW, we're in similar situation in that we've accepted offer we're happy with, 23% down on peak prices in our road (house over the road, better 'presented' with extension but north facing and paved garden) is on for peakish price and not a whiff of an offer. But recent additions to local market seem very highly priced - made me nervous too, because we've not found anything to buy.

BUT dh, who has a good track record of economic predictions, is confident that there will be another wave of price drops over 12-18 months when this seasonal blip is over - and thinks we should rent and hold our nerve. So we are.

lalalonglegs · 15/05/2009 10:50

I really do think it is a blip. If you look at the ten years of boom, it wasn't all rise, rise, rise - there were downturns in 2001, 2003 and a really serious drop in 2005 - and, I suspect that a recession works similarly with overall downward pressure but occasional, relatively small surges upwards.

If you've got a good offer then you are doing a lot better than any neighbour who has put a property on at a ridiculous price. Don't sweat it.

JimmyMcNulty · 15/05/2009 12:40

I agree current indications of 'green shoots' are temporary. Actually not even a blip - more completely in line with historic trends in crashes. In the last crash there were price rises in quite a lot of months, especially the spring.

I have quite a lot invested in house price falls in that I'm renting atm. I am usually also a bit of a worrier, but in this case I am utterly untroubled by doubts about the direction of the market!

Elibean · 15/05/2009 13:52

Thank you lala and Jimmy

We had the structural surveyor round today (for our buyers) and he is also a property developer: had long chat with dh, and he is of the same opinion as you both, and dh. He said he would look for place in November-ish, himself...

I am now beautifully chilled and looking forward to finding a nice rental!

EvenBetaDad · 15/05/2009 15:34

I just rented a house on a 2 year lease. The market is going nowhere but down for the next year at least - in my view.

Talking to a professional buy-to-let ivestor today with a big deposit to buy two repossessed flats and she cannot get bank finance anywhere even though the rent would cover her mortgages easily.

Talking to a property developer last week - he cannot get any bank finance even though he has been doing it 20 years and has some great deals available to him.

The banks simply are unwilling to lend because they are worried about further house price falls, falling wages and job losses.

The charity I work for does some debt counsellng and we are seeing an upsurge in people coming to us who would have been OK a few years ago and who are still on good wages in relativley secure jobs but who have significant debt and the banks are turning the screw, demanding loan repayemnts, refusing to lend them any new money and forcing them to pay back overdrafts at short notice as well as cutting of credit card limits.

Lending has to start again before the economy and house prices will stabilise. property is significantly overpriced versus wages and the market has to fall further - clearly the banks are worried which is why they are refusing to lend. Price of commercial property prices (offices, shops) are down 50% already form peak and no reason that residential wil not follow. Empty offices and shops mean people out of work after all.

The owner of the house I just rented did try and sell it but could not. The rent I am paying is just half of what a 100% interest only mortgage would cost on the property so I am saving money on the mortgage and avoiding further capital losses. I am happy to wait.

Original poster
slackrunner · 16/05/2009 20:46

Thanks for all the soothing words You are all talking sense. I also found a report on Hometrack (published Apr 09) that reckons that these are not genuine green shoots that we are seeing - merely a seasonal blip.

We went for a second viewing today. We really like the house, but when comparing price per square foot it's an extra £50 per square foot compared to similar properties that have sold recently . Hmmmmm......and they wonder why they haven't sold? I will be amazed if they accept our offer (which will be 15% under asking price), but hey ho - we're prepared to sit it out a while longer.

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stuffitlllama · 16/05/2009 20:48

with noddy and her crowd I think we are looking at a double dip sadly

stuffitlllama · 16/05/2009 20:49

is that sadly? I mean, sadly for people being repossessed.. good for first time buyers..

1dilemma · 18/05/2009 12:36

Just came back for a little read since I was wavering too (mind you my waver is academic not paying prices around here, not able too even if I wanted to).
As a backtrack I am under the impression that in some cases you can carry over your negative equity IYSWIM hence my comment about it not 'mattering' (obv. it matters hugely to the person with it rather less so if that is the case than it does to the bank and the person buying the house)
Will add that there is very little decent coming on here

MorrisZapp · 18/05/2009 13:38

Agree with noddy etc.

I think it is laughable to talk of a housing 'recovery' as if there's been a terrible crash that must be rectified soon.

In fact, the crash went the other way - prices 'crashed' upwards for over a decade, and have now dropped a wee bit but nowhere near back down to where they were, say, ten years ago.

I think we're looking at a whole new landscape for homeownership. Without the crazy lending, we don't have crazy offers, but it seems that this has 'frozen' the market, as nobody wants to accept that their house has fallen in value.

When the penny finally drops maybe people will start shifting again.

My flat has dropped about 20% from 2007 peak. It probably has further to go, possibly quite a lot more.