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Original poster

Property pundits - where do you think the market is going next?

105 replies

slackrunner · 26/04/2009 08:34

Our house has just gone under offer (hurrah) - I was having a quick peek on Rightmove today and have noticed that others locally have also sold in the past couple of weeks.

Have we reached the bottom of the market, or is this just a spring blip and it has further to fall?

OP posts:

ABetaDad · 27/04/2009 20:05

Elibean - 'we are sitting tight' - well that is what all the reluctant sellers will say but in the end some will be forced to sell to the willing buyer and if the only willing buyer offers a low price then they have no choice. Market forces canot be ignored for ever. Not even in the UK housing market.

Hope you get a nice house at rock bottom 2000 prices - we are back to mid 2004 already but a way to go yet. Renting is a good deal at the moment and getting better in London where rents are dropping a lot due to collapse in City wages and employment.

Sit tight is going to be a rocky ride.

Elibean · 27/04/2009 22:11

Oooh, you are good for morale. Thanks.

Sorrento · 27/04/2009 22:40

We're saving like mad here, we bought a house in 2007 as a hedging our bets exercise, just in case but only borrowed a third of what the bank was prepared to lend. The plan is now to pay 50% of it off in 3.5 years so we will be able to buy the dream home when the market hits the bottom and then when it comes back up again we'll sell the current house and be mortgage free. However the best laid plans and all that, so it's a case of fingers crossed.

1dilemma · 28/04/2009 11:05

wishful thinking lala!!
I think you're just up the road actually so yes we're very chi chi!

Although if you look at prices and think logically and do a trad 3x1 plus the other calculation you can see I'm about right!

Rebeccaj · 28/04/2009 14:10

Well, we're also in quite a chi chi part of London (fulham) and we're getting offers (3 in the last couple of weeks) around 25% below the offer we got a year ago (which fell through!) We're going to accept one of them in the next day or so. Where we are buying - Surrey - seems to have fallen about the same, so personally it makes no difference really - it's all imaginary money!

2000 levels seems extreme - that would land an awful lot of people in negative equity I would guess, so they just wouldn't move. Of course some will have to, but many would just sit tight causing a serious lack of stock.

wombleprincess · 28/04/2009 14:27

is fulham really considered chi chi now?

jellybeans · 28/04/2009 14:31

House prices still stupidly high. Shameful that ordinary workers cannot even afford ex council flats.

lalalonglegs · 28/04/2009 14:34

Ordinary workers should always been able to rent council flats .

jellybeans · 28/04/2009 14:43

LLL I agree with that but there are few around now. Terrible.

1dilemma · 28/04/2009 14:54

rebeccaj neg equity 'doesn't matter' as long as you are trading up to something more expensive (which hopefully will have dropped down more) hence 'high property prices are eveil they transfer money from the young to the old and the poor to the rich'

do a trad 3x etc calc and tell me how much your chi chi little terrace in Fulham 'should be worth' (don't really BTW just mentally think it through) how many nurses, teachers etc do you know who have places in London who wouldn't stand a chance nowadays then go on and tell me where all those people are going to come from who want to spend 450 on a 2 bed flat? (even if they could)

jeanjeannie · 28/04/2009 15:35

Interesting 1dilemma. I remember when I lived in Ladbroke Grove for a short while back in 2000 and the local Tesco was struggling to get staff as not enough 'ordinary' workers were able to live nearby to keep it going 24/7.

Never quite sure why the goverment/media etc saw dramatically rising house prices as something to be applauded. I genuinely didn't understand it. People were being priced out of the market or borrowing bonkers amounts to keep up but, so long as they kept on rising, everyone seemed happy

JimmyMcNulty · 28/04/2009 15:51

I don't know that the idea of 2000 prices is too outlandish. I remember back in 2002 there was a fairly mainstream view that property prices were looking rather high! Not that it occurred to anyone to try and do anything about it then.

Sorrento · 28/04/2009 16:04

Neg equity does matter because you take the minus amount with you and still have to have the required loan to value even going up the ladder.
For example we now have 100% mortgage due to drops so to go up the ladder and get a good rate I need a 20% deposit, in negative equity by 10% and I need £20k to clear the first mortgage plus a 20% deposit, could be a whole different ball game.

lljkk · 28/04/2009 19:07

I have no idea what my property was worth at peak -- was I supposed to be closely watching estate agent listings for the past 5 years since we bought? .

I do feel sure that house prices were stupidly too much in 2004, when we bought.

From what I hear, most prices now are around what they were in 2004 -- when they were way way too high. Which makes me think that prices should fall some more, and the swing of the pendulum probably means that they will, at least briefly, fall below the long-term trend (long term=last 15-35 years). In which case, 2000 prices might be about expected by the start/middle of 2010.

noddyholder · 28/04/2009 20:03

I think 2000 prices looking more likely now than when prices first started falling.

hatesponge · 28/04/2009 22:54

I'm not convinced there is going to be a further significant price drop, would be good if there was - as I might be able to afford a better house than I can at the moment, but locally to me, although prices seem to have dropped, its only by 10-15% off what they were a year or two rather than the 30% thats being talked about.

One of my friends is currently househunting in the South West. A house she is interested in is up for sale for 30% MORE than its end of 2007 price. We can't decide whether it's the agents or the vendors who are mad...........or at best optimistic!

goldenpeach · 29/04/2009 22:11

It depends on what house you're buying. Small houses have fallen pricewise but bigger properties have really resistent sellers who want a plush retiring cushion. They won't budge and it's for that reason we decided to leave Rugby and look in Oxford, only to be twarted by the buy-to-let/investment brigade, which is still out and about. There aren't that many nice houses for sale either as some people are staying put. We met those too, when we leafted some houses. They are in total denial and think their house will achieve what they want next year. Many estate agents we talked to admitted that some sellers of bigger properties are resistant and won't budge. It's maddening!

Sorrento · 29/04/2009 22:30

Chill out and keep renting trust me, every dog has it's day, yours will be soon , when interest rates go up all the fur coat and no knicker brigade will flood onto the market

Elibean · 29/04/2009 22:31

hatesponge, I think thats because of resistance to reality - those more expensive houses with un-dropped prices are not selling. At least, not here in SW London. House prices, as in houses that sell, have.

twinsetandpearls · 29/04/2009 22:41

We have just accepted an offer at 6% less than we paid for it in 2004 and have noticed quite a few housing going under offer or sold. But they are houses that are reasonably priced, we have had people moaning at us on our street that we have dragged house prices down as we were one of the first to drop prices but I notice that many houses are now priced in line with us whereas we were visibly cheaper for some time.

I have seen a house that I would really like here but we are not going to offer as we are spending the next year saving so as to get a batter mortgage deal as I was not happy with the one we were offered.

Not being a prophet I dont know if prices will fall or rise, my gut feeling is that they will fall.

I have noticed down here in Dorset that prices are starting to fall but there are a lot of sellers who have just given up trying to sell and have taken them off the market.

Sorrento · 29/04/2009 22:42

I had an agent round today to deliver bad news in case we need to sell, we've lost 20% off what we paid in 2007 which I kind of expected but I had hoped that as we'd bought a wreck and done it up I might get back the £40k I'd put into the house and sort of break even if that makes sense so we'd still get some of our deposit back iyswim.
Apparently not.

twinsetandpearls · 29/04/2009 22:46

We have not got back all that we put in, but all you can do is take the view that it is just money and easily earnt again.

Nighbynight · 29/04/2009 22:51

We sold in May 2007 near London, and at that time, the most expensive house advertised in our road was 194 000 (most houses, even then, sold under the asking price, because they had all been fixed without building regs)

Right now, the most expensive house advertised is at 189 000. That's a paltry fall of 2,5% in the asking price.

Am I to conclude, that they are now selling 20% under the asking price, whereas they used to be selling at 10% under it? Crazy.

The houses in this road used to always be the exact average price of a house in Britain. We bought in 1999 for 70 000.
I'd love to see them come down to under 100 000 again.

Sorrento · 29/04/2009 23:00

I'd love to see it too.

HedKandi · 29/04/2009 23:36

what is the exact average price for a house now?

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