If the Autumn budget turns out to be as bad as people seem to think it's going to be, Spring 2026 could be carnage, with sellers gallore, because that's when everyone seems to think it's best to sell their home (esp if it has a nice garden).
I watched the UK Property Stats show yesterday and was quite horrified with the number of sales (rather, people trying to sell their home) for the year to date compared with previous years (good for estate agents, not good for people who are moving because they can no longer afford their mortgage).
At this point in
2023: 1,083,427
2025: 1,202,871
119,444 more attempted sellers than 2 years ago, and 11.3% higher than the 9 year average.
1
He lists the stats in the comments (which you can really only make sense of it you watch it, sorry about that), and there's also a link to download all the slides.
I also think that if a Stamp Duty break is announced on 26/11 (iirc they usually take immediate effect), there could be an absolute bloodbath later this year.
Personally, I'd be very surprised if that happens, as the government are already rummaging down the back of the sofa for spare change. But - if people THINK it might happen, it doesn't really matter. They're likely to hold off til after 26/11 to see if it does.
On the other hand, if you're selling an expensive home that has accrued a lot of value since you bought it, there's talk of capital gains tax on the sale of your primary residence (!!!!!), and that could either cause a massive flurry of people trying to sell up before November, or it could grind the market to a halt.
I do wish these 'leaked' policy thoughts would just stop happening. They do little for the economy and constantly mess with the housing market.