New year market thoughts?

[OneDayIWillLearn]

does anyone have a view on whether the new year housing market is going to be any good?

asking as our buyers are being very annoying with delays and last minute requests to lower the price. We don’t want to renegotiate (and don’t HAVE to have sold in order to move, which we are planning to do in January whether or not we’ve sold) so we are the end of the chain. So we are contemplating remarketing the house instead of renegotiating.

For context, we went under offer at nearly asking price within two weeks of going on the market in September (and had a second offer a couple of thousand lower) so I think we had priced right.

South West London agent reckons flat - if we're lucky - but I see London has fallen substantially this year. If you're in a popular market town, you may gain a bit. I'm in same position as you - buyers doing their utmost to find issues to drag down price - like you, went under offer quickly but renegotiation just before (alleged) exchange. Seems to be a more common tactic these days. I'm not sure what to do either (if I get the choice and my buyers don't ghost like the last lot). I'm super keen to sell but not so keen on the financial hit I'd take. So in summary, I believe it's very area dependent on what will happen next year. Stats can be easily skewed by, for instance, one very expensive sale in a particular postcode, but the general picture does seem to indicate strong regional variations.

I mean what is likely to boost the market ?

Thriving economy ? No. We are in recession.

Mortgage rates being reduced strongly ? No.

I guess there are two things that might bump it up. If you are in an area of short supply and there are a lot of public sector jobs then the money being funneled in there might make it into the housing market.

In my area there seems to be a lot of new jobs but not enough houses being built. So I don't expect the market to change that much even though the nationwide outlook may be flat or negative.

Everyones own area is a micromarket that may go up or down, irrespective of what the local city or nationwide markets are doing. So I guess you just have to trust your agents as having the best knowledge of what is likely to happen in the local market place. Or maybe even talk to other agents to see their opinion too.

They are probably just trying their luck, stick to your guns and call their bluff. Tell your EA you need to know by close of play tomorrow or it’s going back on the market. But if I am being honest, I would sell to the buyer, looks like interest rates will be rising again and this time of year isn’t great for house prices. Good luck OP.

Yes the dilemma is that we are in a stronger position than them (we don’t have to sell to move and have no chain whereas they are in a chain of 4 houses and if they don’t buy our house would then have to find another one/ go back to square one and possible lose their chain, lose all their survey and solicitor money etc)

but

if we don’t sell to them we’ll have to go back on the market/ more mortgage payments (although they are not that bad)/ more solicitor costs etc and the risk of not finding someone else or the same thing happening again

I’d heard people say that the change in stamp duty might drive sales in the first three months of the year. Also I suppose my general sense is that there is quite a lot of pent up demand - we started looking in earnest in early 2023 and it has seemed slow in terms of the volume of houses coming on ever since. I heard some people saying they wouldn’t list before a general election and then saying they wouldn’t list before the budget….and then it was November and a terrible time to list anyway!

But I’m no expert and I know interest rates and the general economy are not helping, hence why I asked the question.

we are in quite a popular area which might be in our favour. I hope we don’t have to find out of course but there’s no point threatening to go back to the market unless you’re actually willing to!

My view is:

• Unless you are already chain complete and in the actual solicitor's process, it will be hard to get to exchange by end-March to avoid the rise in stamp duty. If you are only starting to list & look in January, it will be all but impossible to get this done by the new financial year.
• It was said there was a pent up market at the start of this year. The market has been relatively flat, houses have been over-valued by estate agents trying to talk up the market and subsequently down-valued by mortgage lenders. I don't see this changing early next year. Interest rates haven't come down that much, the cost of living hasn't improved hugely. And yet, I expect the same estate agents and Rightmove will be trying to talk up the market again in January. It's what they do. This year, there was always a reason why it was quiet or about to get busy - the budget, an election, a slight drop in interest rates. None of these had much real impact on the housing market.
• I thought we were in a popular area, but it still took us a while to get a buyer. We are buying in an equally popular area and yet houses were not flying off the shelves there either. The fact is, there just wasn't a lot on the market because it's quite stagnant, people can't borrow as much due to interest rates and the cost of moving (stamp duty plus other costs) is so high. So you have to really want or need to move to be bothered with it all right now.