Will the budget create a mad rush to buy & sell in the next six months?

[Mum5net]

Just that really. I know two FTBs who have made faltering attempts to purchase since August, and both missed out. They are worried about stamp duty changes and have got it into their heads that the FTB threshold is going to fall from £425k to £300k in England, potentially making it more expensive. I have suggested that the budget might prompt another tranche of landlords to sell stock immediately, so there might actually be a rush of properties to come to market. Anyone waiting until October's budget to decide whether to sell?

Nope

Nobody I know of.

@Mum5net ‘I know two FTBs who have made faltering attempts to purchase since August, and both missed out.’

Missed out on what exactly?

>They are worried about stamp duty changes and have got it into their heads that the FTB threshold is going to fall from £425k to £300k in England, potentially making it more expensive.

No, that’s fact. From 31/03/25 the stamp duty allowance drops from 425 to 300k for FTBs. That’s being coming down the pipeline for a very long time.

Both have missed out on properties which accepted offers a good bit over asking price. In both instances, they also offered over but obviously not enough over.

The market seems dead where I live (South East). I know people who have been trying to sell but are getting no interest, and likewise, no properties matching what they would need are coming on the market.

My first page RM search just shows 80% reductions and relistings with new agents.

Sounds like all they have dodged is over paying then?

No, that’s fact. From 31/03/25 the stamp duty allowance drops from 425 to 300k for FTBs. That’s being coming down the pipeline for a very long time.

That makes sense then why all the best houses have gone for more.

>I have suggested that the budget might prompt another tranche of landlords to sell stock immediately

Most of them are already doing that. I can’t give you figures because I don’t remember them but have a browse through the last few months of articles on Property Industry Eye.

Tbh most of the ex rentals I have seen for sale have been under 150k. If those are around you are worried about 425k dropping to 300k then they are either in a completely different market, or houses are really expensive where you are. I have been keeping an eye on the NE, where the majority of ex rentals are two bedroom terraces being sold for 70-80k.

If your friends are in the same financial bracket as us (looking at 300-500k) then I seriously doubt the stamp duty amount lowering will affect them that much. FTBs going in at those figures don’t tend to earn such a low amount as to be worried about paying stamp duty on 125k.

It kinda sounds like your friends are just using you as a sounding board to have a moan, tbh. And maybe the reason they are ‘missing out’ is because they are really, really lowballing offers, but not actually telling you? We do tend to have a certain air of privilege about us. We offered 340k on a 362 asking in May and when they said no, I didn’t care enough about the house to even bother negotiating. As far as I am concerned it’s just a numbers game to me. I don’t really care about any houses, but I do care a great deal about not overpaying.

I don’t think the budget will change much. I think Labour are more of a mindset of building houses to ease overcrowding than stimulating the market to move with some stupid incentive or another, which just pushes up house prices and makes buying even less affordable for FTBs.

>>>>New research by Zoopla has revealed that 40% of working households cannot afford an average-priced two or three-bed home with an 80% loan-to-value mortgage.

https://www.showhouse.co.uk/zoopla-finds-40-of-full-time-workers-priced-out-of-homeownership-across-great-britain/news/

I take any surveys commissioned by people who are in the business of selling houses with a very large pinch of salt, but if we assume this survey was sizeable and not designed with ‘leading’ questions, it’s really quite abysmal.

@KievLoverTwo
Thank you, but this relates to the SE and and, in one instance, a FTB couple, so £300k + is not uncommon.

@Janey3090 is right, there's nothing appropriate coming on the market.

My solicitor is super busy trying to get BTLs and second homes exchanged before the autumn statement as people are worried that CGT will be brought in line with income tax with immediate effect.

It might well happen. However historically CGT was not high, as the person who would benefit from CG had usually taken some risks in investing, either in business or stocks etc.
Maybe the low tax free CGT threshold will remain for longer.
I think a bigger issue coming along is if our Rachel has a ‘Truss’ moment and is seen by the markets as just increasing tax without any growth. Thus reducing disposable income and driving the economy downwards ( a bit like high house prices have done already). That seems more likely to me, and there are none of the sound bites coming out of Labour regards to being business friendly, at all.
We shall see!

Risk is that the budget tanks the economy further.