London prices £1.3 million to 3 million

[Subprime]

Anyone have any observations about this (very broad) bracket for London houses in the bracket of £1.3 million to £3 million?

Have you sold a property recently in this bracket and was it easy?

Have you bought recently in this bracket and did you have much competition? Did you pay over the asking price?

We have equity of about £1.5m and have been looking to trade up. The reason for the broad price range in the headline is it reflects houses priced in the rung below us and also our absolute maximum purchase price (that we would move heaven and earth and sell everything for).

We have been looking in more expensive areas and it strikes me that there’s either nothing coming on the market or it’s still going up compared to what we would have paid less than 2 years ago.

I was dismayed at how much people who had not maintained let alone improved their homes are asking for when we went to viewings last summer and was convinced they would have to take a hit. How wrong I was: all sold above asking price

Do you think redundancies and slow economic growth will inhibit the London market or will it forever be immune?

From an economic point of view, it has nearly always made sense to trade up in London.

However, given that we have an ageing population, will there be the same demand and ability for the current Gen Y/Z to buy these homes for a decent price in 15 years or so when we are ready to downsize?

If anyone can point me to any good economists’ projections specific to London please do! The general property price thread is too broad hence I’m trying to start one on decent sized
London homes (but not mansions).

Wimbledon covers such a massive area doesn’t it @cupcakesarelife . But large parts of it are idyllic.

I am puzzled as to why Greenwich is relatively cheap and that’s a very quick commute to the City.

Is Ealing still OK value despite the Elizabeth line?

Chiswick is now normalizing in price to me as other areas have surged.

Richmond - stunning but far away and under a constant flight path.

Hampstead Garden Suburb seems decent value for big houses (yes I know it’s not Hampstead).

Blackheath - still some value, expensive but you get huge period houses for the money.

Clapham. Just no.

Wandsworth - point me to some quiet roads please?

Dulwich - some nice streets but housing not up to much (too many 1920s/30s) for the price.

Battersea - flats and more flats and a bit gritty and tiny properties mostly.

Barnes - lovely but under the flight path and two
parts to it. Very expensive.

I’ve offended everyone on this thread now but I’m playing devil’s advocate!

@Subprime unfortunately the data he was showing was about the whole UK not London. It was more illustrative showing the kind of data they hold was all. I was just impressed at the level of info they have. Sorry not to be more helpful!

Don’t apologise @Sodndashitall! I wonder what their predictions are for what happens to the market once the current baby boomers down size? Will there be lots of bigger homes suddenly on the market?

They didn't say much about but they did comment on the changing demographics (more singles, divorces etc) driving demand for flats

People are downsizing all the time.

As Londoner who’s seen off 2 crashes - if you buy a house in a premium area, on a good road near transport, good shops, schools - it’s not going to lose its value unless you were forced to sell in the pit of a recession. If this is a family house 10+ years - you’ll be fine. For 3 million I’d steer clear of upcoming areas and go for ones that have arrived and over-subscribed.

I don’t think you’re being offensive! But then I bought in an area of zone 3 (11 minute train to London Bridge) that most MNetters would consider god awful! NYG (not yet gentrified) so I hope we see some value increase in the years to come… But we bought there over the areas you describe above for those reasons. I think people are very wedded to the tube, and old views about areas die hard. Sometimes with good reason, sometimes not.

I think Greenwich is very good value, especially around the Ashburnham Triangle and Gloucester Circus. I think Vanbrugh Hill is quite expensive but you can end up very close to the A2 in Blackheath if you’re not careful. I would have bought one of those if we didn’t have off street parking as a requirement (it’s mental to me that people pay millions to have to endure parking nightmares).

I stayed in an ex’s flat in Richmond. I wouldn’t be able to live under that flight path - it was SO loud.

As others have said, I think you get little micro-markets in London, and even then as you say - some houses don’t come up very often and that skews everything.

Good luck with your search. Sometimes there’s no rhyme or reason to sales that do or don’t happen.

I actually didn’t really answer your actual question. We bought early last year from a divorcing couple. They had originally sold for 1.3, buyers didn’t come through (not sure what happened there). Just after interest rate rises we came along (lol) after being fucked over by two sellers on three occasions.

They relisted for 1.1m. We paid 1.03. So we are a bit below your bracket but it’s a data point for you. Their estate agent actually talked them round because they were listed at the same time as another house, which has taken another full year to sell.

My speculation about your situation is: 1m ish is a house bought by two young professionals on six figure salaries who are FTBs/some family help. Those people need a mortgage and they’re all stuffed now and any cash they do have is spent before you can even think about works. The people you’re competing with for 3m houses are like yourselves, they have a large amount of equity/less risk, are a bit more settled, have an obligation to stay in an area for schooling, maybe have a bit more cash for works. So the latter will go for the house in the perfect location and get it done.

We have another family friend in SE who has dropped their price from 1.1 to 950. It’s a beautiful house with great links, but I think when the rates are high, people are being more cautious and thinking how much work is really reasonable when your employer is calling you back to the office and you’re on a clock to have kids. And like yourselves, they may see people still listing at 2021 levels.

Could all be complete nonsense of course but that’s my view.

I think people in the over a million bracket often want to ‘put their stamp’ on a property, so doer-uppers aren’t off putting. Our road is mainly (very ordinary) 4-bed semis and they go for 1.3 / 1.4 million even in truly terrible decorative order, because it’s a nice road close to good amenities and good schools.

Our house is a bit dilapidated internally to be honest and when we were thinking of selling last year( now decided to stay put) multiple estate agents told us not to bother doing any work on the house as it would likely be snapped up at over the asking price either way. The last 4 houses sold (over past 2 years) have all gone for over the asking price quickly. Only one of them was ‘ready to move into’.

Could argue other way, people who buy 1.3m and above may have some large equity from family or prior purchase (obviously less and less now prices are stagnant) but also most are working long hours in stressful jobs. The last thing needed is another shift back home dealing with the builders and fuck ups. Agents mentioned turn key are shifting quick and high, the rest? not so much

Agree with this. Friends planned their renovation to start in 2022.

had to strip out a lot to make it doable - originally they would have down the whole house but they had to scale back and leave the first floor bathroom and bedrooms as is to afford the extension and reconfiguration of the ground floor (usual creation of a large open plan space at the back)

so lots of steel for the frame at the back and new windows at the back.

cost 20% than original budget for about 60-70% of what they planned.

We saw a ‘cheaper’ house for £1.8m last summer. It was far too small with a long, skinny garden. But it was immaculate and had obviously had a new kitchen and bathrooms etc and was staged. It sold immediately. Other houses a few doors down and have been on the market for 1.6/7ish and not budged. They have not needed modernisation but maybe just redecoration.

I think this price level - where our current house sits - is different and more price conscious than the nudging £3m buyers who can afford a tear down.

Our problem is we want the bones of an excellent house in an excellent street but don’t have £1m for the renovation costs. (A friend recently spent that and she is not in a premium area though her house is an utterly amazing detached Victorian gem).

Even at 3 million there are the buyers intending to turn it into a 4-5 million house - add basement, back extension + refurb @ 500-1 million; and those buying either top of their budget, or don’t want the hassle of a project, so want a done house for their money. Generally though they’re more likely to have funds in the future to do work if wanted.

OP I remember being on an estate agent’s mailing list (either Savills or Hamptons) and they sent out their research insights in to market movements. Might be worth signing up and seeing if you get useful info.

I think a PP had it right that even with a very high budget, you still have to make compromises in London.

You also have to back your own taste/judgement. We live in an area of London that some people probably look down on but we like it and that's what matters. There are other areas of London that are highly regarded that I don't like.

Hampstead Garden Suburb is gorgeous. I currently live near Barnes and Richmond. Barnes is my ideal place if I could ever afford it. Once people move there they don't leave ...

Interesting thread. We’re in zone 3 in a Victorian terrace which is now at the bottom end of your range. We bought about 8 years ago for just over £1m and have only done cosmetic work. We had to pay over asking then and it went to best and final offers. (You don’t mention our area in your list above by the way, but we are inside the North Circular and quite desirable, lots of 2.5 and 3 mill semis in the surrounding streets). The house next door to ours is about to be sold as a probate sale and it hasn’t been touched since the 60s so will need a complete modernisation. I’m really intrigued to see what it goes on for, and sells for. I’m quite keen to trade up a bit myself!

Because they can’t get over the bridge. 😆

Ooh tell me more @Heather37231 … Is it Cricklewood or Dollis Hill?

Thanks @EalingW13 I think I’m on the Hamptons one and one other.

My problem is that the housing style I like - older, rambling houses, are not available in the area we are looking at and we are sort of stuck there due to the schools etc. We don’t live a million miles away but don’t want to move between the target area and here as we actually have an amazingly convenient location, lovely road and neighbours, leafy streets without it being snooty but surrounded by a bit of grit.

The problem is, our area has been up and coming
for years and it just hasn’t up and gone! Prices have soared but had we been in an expensive area, 50% price rise in X years at that amount would have given us a much bigger capital gain, allowing us to release equity for other things eg education.

On that point, realistically I’m going to assume most people buying £2m plus homes in London are educating their children privately. If so, will they all be able to keep doing that plus bidding over the odds for expensive houses? It’s really made us think about staying put and we have a healthy - though not banker level - household income.

Crouch End. You didn’t mention Muswell Hill or Alexandra Palace either.

Ah yes thanks @Heather37231 , very popular areas. We have good friends who moved to one of the areas you listed. Good community feel and I don’t think it’s over priced. Sadly too far from most transport for us and DCs’ schools. Older one is especially settled so probably can’t move.

Sorry, I thought you were just looking for general comparisons of trends/activity in areas with similar stock and prices. You mentioned HGS- that’s only 10 mins drive from Crouch End, I go there a lot as my son has a few friends who live there.

Just had a peek at Highgate on rightmove which I would consider more premium than more suburban Muswell Hill etc and found this which seems reasonable :

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141932237

Nice. That is about 5 mins drive from me. I know people in that street. You reckon it would go for less than £3mill?

You’d need to factor in a lifetime supply of blue paint to keep the outside looking nice!

Ealing prices went mad a few years ago because of the Elizabeth line. Of course the same is true for all stations along the line. And previously cheaper neighbourhoods are now expensive (I’m thinking of Northfields).

It’s a really nice place to live. Family friendly, lots of parks, easy to get in to town and also out to the countryside.

My impression is that prices have held up in this bracket. But there is a lot less on the market.

I don’t think you can really define all your potential buyers/sellers in terms of school fees etc. We’ve been involved in a few house sales recently via family members and the parties were a foreign couple buying a London pad, retirees moving, A childless couple with a huge deposit, a builder buying for cash… in each case there was no mortgage or only a small one.

Have you had yours valued recently @Heather37231 ? I bet it’s gone up quite a bit.

Also, anyone in decent good secondary catchments is sitting on a gold mine. People at our selling price point - below £2m - probably won’t be able to afford private education in the near future. Those at our fantasy buying level will probably be OK so catchments won’t matter as much.

We live in a terrible secondary school area - results are appalling for the borough - so many move out and this I think has kept our prices relatively low despite decent housing stock and excellent links to the City.