Thoughts on house prices rising in Oct

[Anonymous002]

What’s everyone’s take on the news regarding house prices rising for the first time (October) in 6 months?

data reported by Halifax and savills property agent and on several news channels.

thanks.

Not all male. Try Lyn Alden. Engineer does Investing. Really smart.

Wow @KievLoverTwo that's crazy about the 50% extra lending.

I doubt they'd actually lend the full extra 50% when push comes to shove, but even down the more cautious end of the lender scale, with the company we got a mortgage from in May - even they are prepared to lend us 13% more than they were in May, and have produced a Decision in Principle to that effect.

What I was expecting to happen is: we'll lend you 30% less now, because times are tough, and things cost more, and your finances are the same.

Nope. They're just splashing the cash, because their numbers have fallen off a cliff edge.

O_O

It's potentially good news for buyers anyway that lenders are having to fight harder for their custom. Hopefully it may lead to some more competitive rates and not just for those with a 40% deposit.

No I don't agree it's "buyers beware" territory @DrySherry

I would classify it less dramatically as a buyers market.

Fair comment.

Neither is two months, it is just statistical noise on very reduced sales.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/house-prices-officially-fall-for-first-time-since-2012-says-ons/ar-AA1jY5GK

How can it be a "buyers market" when sales are down about 50% from historical peaks and mortgage applications are down 40%? Buyers are waiting for prices to really drop, THEN it might be a buyers market.

I don’t think you understand what people mean when they talk about a buyers market.
The phrase buyers market (or sellers market) has been around forever. A buyers market is not dependent on a house price crash which will probably not happen anyway.

Well I dont understand what YOU mean because I dont think you could define why this market is a buyers market, a true "buyers market" offers value for buyers and buyers hold most of the cards, that is most certainly not this market!

You're using your own definition of a buyers market whereas I'm using the term as it is generally used by people to describe which party appears to have more power in the buyer/seller relationship at a particular moment in time.

You are just paraphrasing what I said, in your original post you couldnt define what it was? High(er) interest rates and still way too high house prices is most definitely not a buyers market, much as you obviously relish people diving back into the mortgage debt pool. The last true buyers market in the UK was late 80s/early half of the 90`s, it lasted for a long time and buyers who could raise the cash/borrowing were getting genuine fire-sale prices, we are nowhere near that just now, many people are still telling themselves rates will be back to zero soon.

I know exactly what a buyers market is and a sellers market, I've bought and sold properties in both. You are the one who seems to have a problem with accepting what it is hence you want to use your own definition. You don't think we will see a buyers market until prices really drop as you put it.

But if you're expecting to see a 30% plus drop in house prices you will very likely be disappointed so the buyers market you are dreaming of will never happen.

I actually did buy and sell property in the early 90s and didn't see many "genuine fire-sale prices" even then. A few people got "bargains" on properties that had been repossessed, those sort of sales were depressing and niche and did not appeal to most people including myself. We will see way fewer repossessions in this current market than back then due to it being much better regulated now.

LOL, I think some areas of Japan saw 80%+ falls in their early 90s crash, and Im sure all the usual arguments about not making any more Islands etc. were trotted out by the VIs beforehand, but what it boiled down to, look it up if you like, was a change in interest rate policy (doesnt that sound familiar?) In some areas of the UK in the early 90s you could buy ex-council houses for 20k (much less with the "tenants discount") many many people did that and there were lots of repossessions, people were liquidating property as well to pay other debts, it wasnt just a "few" people who got a bargain (you really don`t like the idea of people getting property "bargains" do you?)

I don't mind people getting property bargains @CrashyTime but it doesn't feel good to me if it is the result of someone else being repossessed.

Our 1 bed flat in London was bought for 62k back then and sold for 60k (falling market). To put it into context that same flat sold recently for about 450k so that's how much prices have gone up in that area. In that context, people buying ex council houses outside London for 20k wasn't quite as much of a bargain as it sounds today. If they appreciated at the same rate as our flat in London they would be worth about 150k today which is normal in some parts of the country.

Can you link to the general area so we can follow with PropertyLog? My belief is that many areas of the country would need at LEAST a 30% drop to shift a house now, can`t see volumes returning without that TBH, of course if a recession happens then you will get your rate cuts but job losses are probably worse for house prices than higher rates.

It was Stoke Newington in North London, you'll forgive me if I don't want to provide a link to my actual previous property!